Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-10-4535-2014
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-10-4535-2014

  15 Dec 2014

15 Dec 2014

Review status: this preprint has been withdrawn by the authors.

Technical Note: Are large error bars desirable? A note on quantitative model-proxy comparison

J. Liakka2,1, J. T. Eronen2,1, H. Tang3, and F. T. Portmann2,1,4 J. Liakka et al.
  • 1Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (LOEWE BiK-F), Frankfurt, Germany
  • 2Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Frankfurt, Germany
  • 3Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
  • 4Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University, Frankfurt, Germany

Abstract. The combined use of proxy records and climate modelling is invaluable for obtaining a better understanding of past climates. However, many methods of model-proxy comparison in the literature are fundamentally problematic because larger errors in the proxy tend to yield a "better" agreement with the model. Here we quantify model-proxy agreement as a function to proxy uncertainty using the overlapping coefficient OVL, which measures the similarity between two probability distributions. We found that the model-proxy agreement is poor (OVL < 50%) if the proxy uncertainty (σp) is greater than three times the model variability (σm), even if the model and proxy have similar mean estimates. Hence only proxies that fulfil the condition σp < 3σm should be used for detailed quantitative evaluation of the model performance.

This preprint has been withdrawn.

J. Liakka et al.

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J. Liakka et al.

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