Journal cover Journal topic
Climate of the Past An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

IF value: 3.536
IF3.536
IF 5-year value: 3.967
IF 5-year
3.967
CiteScore value: 6.6
CiteScore
6.6
SNIP value: 1.262
SNIP1.262
IPP value: 3.90
IPP3.90
SJR value: 2.185
SJR2.185
Scimago H <br class='widget-line-break'>index value: 71
Scimago H
index
71
h5-index value: 40
h5-index40
Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-10-4535-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-10-4535-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  15 Dec 2014

15 Dec 2014

Review status
This preprint has been withdrawn by the authors.

Technical Note: Are large error bars desirable? A note on quantitative model-proxy comparison

J. Liakka2,1, J. T. Eronen2,1, H. Tang3, and F. T. Portmann2,1,4 J. Liakka et al.
  • 1Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (LOEWE BiK-F), Frankfurt, Germany
  • 2Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Frankfurt, Germany
  • 3Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
  • 4Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University, Frankfurt, Germany

Abstract. The combined use of proxy records and climate modelling is invaluable for obtaining a better understanding of past climates. However, many methods of model-proxy comparison in the literature are fundamentally problematic because larger errors in the proxy tend to yield a "better" agreement with the model. Here we quantify model-proxy agreement as a function to proxy uncertainty using the overlapping coefficient OVL, which measures the similarity between two probability distributions. We found that the model-proxy agreement is poor (OVL < 50%) if the proxy uncertainty (σp) is greater than three times the model variability (σm), even if the model and proxy have similar mean estimates. Hence only proxies that fulfil the condition σp < 3σm should be used for detailed quantitative evaluation of the model performance.

This preprint has been withdrawn.

J. Liakka et al.

Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

J. Liakka et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 1,164 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
661 269 234 1,164 45 75
  • HTML: 661
  • PDF: 269
  • XML: 234
  • Total: 1,164
  • BibTeX: 45
  • EndNote: 75
Views and downloads (calculated since 15 Dec 2014)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 15 Dec 2014)

Cited

Saved

Discussed

No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 25 Sep 2020
Publications Copernicus
Download
Withdrawal notice

This preprint has been withdrawn.

Citation