Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-8-31-2012
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-8-31-2012
03 Jan 2012
 | 03 Jan 2012
Status: this preprint was under review for the journal CP. A revision for further review has not been submitted.

A modelling approach to assessing the timescale uncertainties in proxy series with chronological errors

D. V. Divine, F. Godtliebsen, and H. Rue

Abstract. The paper proposes an approach to assessment of timescale errors in proxy-based series with chronological uncertainties. The method relies on approximation of the physical process(es) forming a proxy archive by a random Gamma process. Parameters of the process are partly data-driven and partly determined from prior assumptions. For a particular case of a linear accumulation model and absolutely dated tie points an analytical solution is found suggesting the Beta-distributed probability density on age estimates along the length of a proxy archive. In a general situation of uncertainties in the ages of the tie points the proposed method employs MCMC simulations of age-depth profiles yielding empirical confidence intervals on the constructed piecewise linear best guess timescale. It is suggested that the approach can be further extended to a more general case of a time-varying expected accumulation between the tie points. The approach is illustrated by using two ice and two lake/marine sediment cores representing the typical examples of paleoproxy archives with age models based on tie points of mixed origin.

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D. V. Divine, F. Godtliebsen, and H. Rue
 
Status: closed (peer review stopped)
Status: closed (peer review stopped)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
 
Status: closed (peer review stopped)
Status: closed (peer review stopped)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
D. V. Divine, F. Godtliebsen, and H. Rue
D. V. Divine, F. Godtliebsen, and H. Rue

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