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Climate of the Past An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-6-2055-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-6-2055-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  05 Oct 2010

05 Oct 2010

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This preprint was under review for the journal CP but the revision was not accepted.

Technical Note: Multi-centennial scale analysis and synthesis of an ensemble mean response of ENSO to solar and volcanic forcings

J. Sánchez-Sesma J. Sánchez-Sesma
  • Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, México

Abstract. The response of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to solar and volcanic radiative forcings over the past millennium is reanalyzed and extrapolated based on historical data and numerical experiments employing the Zebiak–Cane (ZC) model of the tropical Pacific coupled ocean–atmosphere system. The results suggest a self-similarity of the centennial scale component of the reconstructed ENSO record with a shift in frequencies around 1700 AD when the frequencies almost double. This shift of regime puts forward the non-linearity of ENSO climate with a possible centennial scale forecast, suggesting an ENSO trend toward La Niña conditions for the next three decades.

J. Sánchez-Sesma

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J. Sánchez-Sesma

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