Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-5-2631-2009
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-5-2631-2009

  23 Dec 2009

23 Dec 2009

Review status: this preprint was under review for the journal CP. A revision for further review has not been submitted.

Refining error estimates for a millennial temperature reconstruction

M. N. Juckes M. N. Juckes
  • STFC, Rutherford Appleton Lab, Chilton, Didcot, OX11 0QX, UK

Abstract. The statistical uncertainties in a 1000 year Northern Hemisphere mean temperature reconstruction obtained from 15 proxy chronologies are examined in detail by analysing the range of estimates obtained from all possible subsets of the proxy collection with up to 6 proxies omitted. The study is motivated in part by the large range of recently published reconstructions in the 15th and 16th centuries. The uncertainty estimates support the conclusions of the 3rd and 4th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports concerning the likelihood that temperatures at the end of the 20th century were likely (greater than 66% confidence) to have been exceptional. It is also shown that the last ten years to date have been warmer than any decade of the past millennium with 95% confidence.

M. N. Juckes

 
Status: closed (peer review stopped)
Status: closed (peer review stopped)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
 
Status: closed (peer review stopped)
Status: closed (peer review stopped)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

M. N. Juckes

M. N. Juckes

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