M. N. Juckes
The statistical uncertainties in a 1000 year Northern Hemisphere mean temperature reconstruction obtained from 15 proxy chronologies are examined in detail by analysing the range of estimates obtained from all possible subsets of the proxy collection with up to 6 proxies omitted. The study is motivated in part by the large range of recently published reconstructions in the 15th and 16th centuries. The uncertainty estimates support the conclusions of the 3rd and 4th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports concerning the likelihood that temperatures at the end of the 20th century were likely (greater than 66% confidence) to have been exceptional. It is also shown that the last ten years to date have been warmer than any decade of the past millennium with 95% confidence.
Received: 27 Nov 2009 – Discussion started: 23 Dec 2009
Publisher's note : Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
M. N. Juckes
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