Natural variability and anthropogenic effects in a Central Mediterranean core

Abstract. We evaluate the contribution of natural variability to the modern decrease in foraminiferal δ¹⁸O by relying on a 2200-yr-long, high-resolution record of oxygen isotopic ratio from a Central Mediterranean sediment core. Pre-industrial values are used to train and test two sets of algorithms that are able to forecast the natural variability in δ¹⁸O over the last 150 yr. These algorithms are based on autoregressive models and neural networks, respectively; they are applied separately to each of the δ¹⁸O series' significant variability components, rather than to the complete series. The separate components are extracted by singular-spectrum analysis and have narrow-band spectral content, which reduces the forecast error. By comparing the sum of the predicted low-frequency components to its actual values during the Industrial Era, we deduce that the natural contribution to these components of the modern δ¹⁸O variation decreased gradually, until it reached roughly 40%, as early as the end of the 1970s.