Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-41
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-41
04 Jul 2024
 | 04 Jul 2024
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal CP.

Strong volcanic-induced climatic shocks on historical Moselle wine production

Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Bo Christiansen, Lea Schneider, and Peter Thejll

Abstract. In central and southern Europe, grapevine is a climate-sensitive agricultural product of large economic importance, both in historical times and today. We systematically investigated the climatic impact, focusing on volcanic-forced abrupt cooling, on two long annual records of wine production quantity (spanning 1444–1786) from the Moselle Valley in present-day Luxembourg, close to the northern limit of viticulture in Europe. We present a consistent picture of the impact of volcanic eruptions on wine production through climate. To this end, we applied superposed epoch analysis – an appropriate method for detecting episodic signals in non-stationary time-series – in combination with a bootstrap procedure to estimate the statistical significance. We also assessed the long-term relationship between different annual and seasonal climate parameters and wine production in the Moselle Valley. Robust and highly significant wine production declines occurred in the years immediately following major volcanic events. Warmer, and to a lesser extent drier, climate condition had a moderately strong, but persistent, positive effect on wine production. We also find a volcanic cooling signature in spring and summer in temperature reconstructions. However, the detected volcanic signature in the Moselle Valley wine production is considerably stronger than the one found for Central Europe in tree-ring data and is instead more akin to the strong volcanic signature present in Fennoscandian tree-ring series. On the basis of our findings, we encourage further compilation, publication, and analyses of additional wine production series containing unique biological and climatic information.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Bo Christiansen, Lea Schneider, and Peter Thejll

Status: open (until 12 Sep 2024)

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  • RC1: 'Comment on cp-2024-41', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Jul 2024 reply
Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Bo Christiansen, Lea Schneider, and Peter Thejll
Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Bo Christiansen, Lea Schneider, and Peter Thejll

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Short summary
We study the climatic signal, with focus on volcanic-induced shocks, in two long annual records of wine production quantity (spanning 1444–1786) from present-day Luxembourg, close to the northern limit of viticulture in Europe. Highly significant wine production declines are found during years following major volcanic events. Furthermore, warmer and drier climate conditions favoured wine production, with spring and summer conditions being the most important ones.