the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Assessing the most severe subsistence crisis of the 17th century in the Northwest of the Iberian Peninsula: a meteorological perspective
Abstract. The analysis of climate behavior over centuries reveals how environmental forces shaped society and helps contextualize modern climate trends and future projections. The torrential rains in several regions of the Eastern Atlantic during 1768–1769 triggered the last and most severe agricultural crisis in Galicia and Northern Portugal, resulting in unprecedented mortality. The atmospheric conditions of this historical episode were analyzed using the EKF400v2 paleo-reanalysis dataset, which spans from the 17th century to the early 21st century. From June 1768 to May 1769, the rainfall anomaly in Galicia and Northern Portugal was positive in 11 out of 12 months. Although the rainfall in Northern Portugal appeared less intense than in Galicia, June 1768 had the highest positive rain anomaly of the century, and September 1768 had the second-highest. This excess precipitation agrees with the occurrence of pro-Serenitate rogations and written testimonies indicating an unusually high number of rainy days between June 1768 and May 1769. The atmospheric synoptic patterns for the rainiest months show negative anomalies in both sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height in the northeast Atlantic. These patterns are associated with troughs in the northeastern Atlantic that induce the formation of surface low-pressure systems and hinder the eastward progression of anticyclones into the region, resulting in more frequent episodes of rain and cold than usual.
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CC1: 'Comment on cp-2024-49- A short comment on the title and Figs 4,5, and 6', Zoltán Kern, 17 Oct 2024
Dear Authors,
I congratulate the authors on their research.
I would like to make two small comments in this post.
1) If the focus of this study is "to analyze the atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic Arc from June 1768 to May 1769" as written in lines 115-116, then the 18th century should be written in the title (instead of 17th century as in the current one).2) Using uniform time axis in each and every panels in Figs 4, 5 and 6 could facilitate the visual comparison of these very similar plots.
Zoltan Kern
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-49-CC1 -
CC2: 'Reply on CC1', Maite deCastro, 17 Oct 2024
Dear colleague,
Thank you for your interest in the research and for your helpful comments. Regarding point 1, I completely agree, it is a typo, and as for point 2, it makes sense to select the same time axis in all those figures. Both comments will be taken into account in the next version of the manuscript.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-49-CC2 -
AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Maite deCastro, 12 Dec 2024
Dear Mr. Zoltan Kern,
Thank you for your interest in our manuscript and for your valuable comments. We have incorporated your suggestions in the revised version.The error regarding the "18th century" instead of the "17th century" has been corrected throughout the manuscript.
To facilitate visual comparison, a uniform time axis has been applied to all panels in Figures 4, 5, and 6.
Sincerely,
Prof. M. deCastro
Centro de Investigaciones Marinas. Environmental physics Laboratory (EphysLab), University of Vigo
Department of Applied Physics
Vigo, Spain
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-49-AC1
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CC2: 'Reply on CC1', Maite deCastro, 17 Oct 2024
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RC1: 'Comment on cp-2024-49', Anonymous Referee #1, 09 Nov 2024
The article by deCastro et al. is of great interest but requires revisions. Many key relevant works in climate history, that the authors could cite in the introduction, are missing. Instead they cite outdated popular science book about the Little Ice Age by Fagan (2001). I have at the end of this review listed some additional potential references to cite for the Introduction and Discussion. Also key literature about erosive precipitation in Italy is missing and could be cited. The entire Introduction section could be more concise and better relate to state-of-the-art climate history research for Europe.
The English language requires additional polishing. In particular, the title contains a severe error. The Article concerns the 1760s – thus the 18th century – and NOT the 17th century (the 1600s) as stated in the title. It would be better to have the quotations of sources, in English, i the main text and place the original after within parentheses (and avoid footnotes altogether).
Much of the links to the data sources on pp. 8–9 code instead be include be listed in a Data Availability Statement at the end of the article. It is enough in the actual Method section to describe the data sources but how to find them can instead be placed in a Data Availability Statement.
Minor comments:
Line 80: Formulation “most of the south and Mediterranean” is unclear.
Line 209: Better to write 18th century and 21st century.
Table 2: Please state period.
Table 3: Please state sources and location.
General: Avoid abbreviations such as “IP” for the Iberian Peninsula. It makes the text harder to read.
Line 559: Avoid words like “unprecedented”. The authors themselves mention that 1740 might had worse famine mortality.
Suggestion of additional references to cite:
Collet, D. and Schuh, M., eds.: Famines During the ‘Little Ice Age’ (1300–1800): Socio-natural Entanglements in Premodern Societies, Springer, Berlin/Heidelberg, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-54337-6, 2018.
Diodato, N., Ljungqvist, F.C. & Bellocchi, G., A millennium-long reconstruction of damaging hydrological events across Italy. Scientific Reports, 9 (2019): 9963.
Diodato, N., Ljungqvist, F.C. & Bellocchi, G. A millennium-long climate history of erosive storms across the Tiber River Basin, Italy, from 725 to 2019 CE. Scientific Reports, 11 (2021): 20518.
Diodato, N., Ljungqvist, F.C. & Bellocchi, G. Outcome of environmental change from historical sediment discharge in a Mediterranean fluvial basin, 1500–2019 CE. Environmental Research Communications, 3 (2021): 071002.
Diodato, N., Ljungqvist, F.C. & Bellocchi, G. Climate patterns in the world’s longest history of diluvial storm-erosivity: the Arno River Basin, Italy, 1000–2019 CE. Frontiers in Earth Science, 9 (2021): 637973.
Diodato, N., Ljungqvist, F.C. & Bellocchi, G. Fingerprint of climate change in precipitation aggressiveness across the central Mediterranean area. Scientific Reports, 10 (2020): 22062.
Galloway, P. R.: Secular changes in the short-term preventive, positive, and temperature checks to population growth in Europe, 1460 to 1909, Clim. Change, 26, 3–63, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01094008, 1994.
Ljungqvist, F. C., Seim, A., and Huhtamaa, H.: Climate and society in European history, Wiley Interdisciplin. Rev.: Clim. Change, 12, e691, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.691, 2021.
Ljungqvist, F. C., Christiansen, B., Esper, J., Huhtamaa, H., Leijonhufvud, L., Pfister, C., Seim, A., Skoglund, M. K., and Thejll, P.: Climatic signatures in early modern European grain harvest yields, Clim. Past, 19, 2463–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2463-2023, 2023.
Ljungqvist, F. C., Seim, A., and Collet, D.: Famines in medieval and early modern Europe – connecting climate and society, Wiley Interdisciplin. Rev.: Clim. Change, 15, e859, https://doi.org/doi.org/10.1002/wcc.859, 2024.
Pfister, C. and Wanner, H.: Climate and Society in Europe: The Last Thousand Years, Bern: Haupt Verlag, 2021.
Slavin, P.: Climate and famines: A historical reassessment, Wiley Interdisciplin. Rev.: Clim. Change, 7, 433–447, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.395, 2016.
Wanner, H., Pfister, C., and Neukom, R.: The variable European Little Ice Age, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 287, 107 531, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107531, 2022.
White, S., Brooke, J., and Pfister, C.: Climate, Weather, agriculture, and food, in: The Palgrave Handbook of Climate History, edited by White, S., Pfister, C., and Mauelshagen, F., pp. 331–353, Springer, Berlin/Heidelberg, 2018.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-49-RC1 -
CC3: 'Reply on RC1', Maite deCastro, 11 Nov 2024
Thank you for your valuable recommendations. They will be highly useful, and all of them will be carefully considered in the revised version of the manuscript.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-49-CC3 -
AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Maite deCastro, 12 Dec 2024
Dear Mr. Zoltan Kern,
Thank you for your interest in our manuscript and for your valuable comments. We have incorporated your suggestions in the revised version.The error regarding the "18th century" instead of the "17th century" has been corrected throughout the manuscript.
To facilitate visual comparison, a uniform time axis has been applied to all panels in Figures 4, 5, and 6.
Sincerely,
Prof. M. deCastro
Centro de Investigaciones Marinas. Environmental physics Laboratory (EphysLab), University of Vigo
Department of Applied Physics
Vigo, Spain
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-49-AC1 -
AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Maite deCastro, 12 Dec 2024
The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://cp.copernicus.org/preprints/cp-2024-49/cp-2024-49-AC2-supplement.pdf
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CC3: 'Reply on RC1', Maite deCastro, 11 Nov 2024
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RC2: 'Comment on cp-2024-49', Anonymous Referee #2, 10 Nov 2024
This is a very interesting paper on a specific pluvial event and its consequences on society. I appreciate that it is not only climatologically state-ot-the-art, but also sketches all the relevant historical developments that are necessary to interpret this event, without going too far into climate determinism, like so many other studies. Nevertheless, I have some comments, which I would ask the authors to consider in their revised manuscript.
General:
1770-1772 was a period of crisis in central Europe (see work By Dominik Collet). Although this might be arguably unrelated in a climatological context, and concerned a different region, it might nevertheless be relevant historically to extend the present case.
Daily scale: The authors speak about "torrential" rain, which cannot be assessed form monthly data. In general, I am wondering what could be done with daily data. These should be available from London and Paris (see Richard Cornes work), from the English Channel (wind from ships), and other Western European stations.
Paris precipitation is another interesting record, but is not included in the study. It is a bit peripheral, but could nevertheless be interesting.
At least in three instances in the manuscript, the authors speak about 1678-1679. Perhaps this was a "find-replace" error. Or was it the 17th century and not the 18th century after all? I am confused.
The discussion is really nice and interesting, but at the same time the discussion should not present new results, which the authors do.
Minor:
Title: "17th century" -> "18th century"
Title: "a meteorological perspective" -> "a climatological perspective"
L. 14: "climate behaviour" -> "climate variability"
L. 154: Le Roy Ladurie
L. 210: Valler et al. 2020 -> 2022
L. 224: What did Murphy et al. find?
L. 342: Why 1944? ERA5 starts in 1940.
L. 423: What is meant with "root crops"? Potatoes? Then write potatoes. Or were other root crops importantCitation: https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-49-RC2 -
CC4: 'Reply on RC2', Maite deCastro, 11 Nov 2024
Thank you for your valuable recommendations. They will be highly useful, and all of them will be carefully considered in the revised version of the manuscript.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-49-CC4 -
AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Maite deCastro, 12 Dec 2024
The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://cp.copernicus.org/preprints/cp-2024-49/cp-2024-49-AC3-supplement.pdf
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CC4: 'Reply on RC2', Maite deCastro, 11 Nov 2024
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