Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-76
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-76
20 Sep 2023
 | 20 Sep 2023
Status: this preprint was under review for the journal CP. A revision for further review has not been submitted.

Antarctic Tipping points triggered by the mid-Pliocene warm climate

Javier Blasco, Ilaria Tabone, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Frank Pattyn, and Marisa Montoya

Abstract. Tipping elements, including the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), are Earth system components that can reach critical thresholds due to anthropogenic emissions. Increasing our understanding of past warm climates can help to elucidate the future contribution of the AIS to emissions. The mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, 3.3–3.0 million years ago) serves as an ideal benchmark experiment. During this period, CO2 levels were similar to present-day (350–450 ppmv), but global mean temperatures were 2.5–4.0 degrees higher. Sea-level reconstructions from that time indicate a rise of 10–20 meters compared to the present, highlighting the potential crossing of tipping points in Antarctica. In order to achieve a sea-level contribution far beyond 10 m not only the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) needs to largely decrease, but a significant response in the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is also required. A key question in reconstructions and simulations is therefore which of the AIS basins retreated during the mPWP. In this study, we investigate how the AIS responds to climatic and bedrock conditions during the mPWP. To this end we use the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) general circulation model ensemble to force a higher-order ice-sheet model. Our simulations reveal that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet experiences collapse with a 0.5 K oceanic warming, the Wilkes basin shows retreat at 3 K oceanic warming, although higher precipitation rates could mitigate such a retreat. Totten glacier shows slight signs of retreats only under high oceanic warming conditions (greater than 4 K oceanic anomaly). We also examine other sources of uncertainty related to initial topography and ice dynamics. we find that the climatologies yield a higher uncertainty than the dynamical configuration, if parameters are constrained with PD observations and that starting from Pliocene reconstructions lead to smaller ice-sheet configurations due to hysteresis behaviour of marine bedrocks. Ultimately, our study concludes that cliff instability is not a prerequisite for the retreat of Wilkes basin. Instead, a significant rise in oceanic temperatures can initiate such a retreat. Our research contributes to a better understanding of Antarctic tipping points and the likelihood of crossing them under future emission scenarios.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Javier Blasco, Ilaria Tabone, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Frank Pattyn, and Marisa Montoya

Status: closed (peer review stopped)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on cp-2023-76', Tijn Berends, 26 Sep 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on cp-2023-76', Anonymous Referee #2, 01 Dec 2023

Status: closed (peer review stopped)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on cp-2023-76', Tijn Berends, 26 Sep 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on cp-2023-76', Anonymous Referee #2, 01 Dec 2023
Javier Blasco, Ilaria Tabone, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Frank Pattyn, and Marisa Montoya
Javier Blasco, Ilaria Tabone, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Frank Pattyn, and Marisa Montoya

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Short summary
In this study, we assess Antarctic tipping points which may had been crossed during the mid-pliocene warm period. For this we use data from the PlioMIP2 ensemble. Additionally, we investigate various sources of uncertainty, like ice dynamics and bedrock configuration. Our research significantly enhances our comprehension of Antarctica's response to a warming climate, shedding light on potential future tipping points that may be surpassed.