Climate and Disease: the connection between temperature values and precipitation rates and the probability of death due to waterborne and airborne diseases in historical urban space (the evidence from Poznań, Poland)

Abstract. The study examines the relationship between temperature values and precipitation rates as explanatory variables and the probability of death due to waterborne, airborne, and other diseases in historical urban space. So far, the literature has not been focused on epidemiology of 19th -century Polish urban areas in climatological context. We used individual data on mortality from Poznań parish death registers for 1850–1900. Each deceased individual was assigned the average monthly temperature values and precipitation rates in the month of death, LAG1 temperature and LAG1 rainfall, and a quarter of residence. We studied the relationship between weather conditions and mortality using formalized statistical models reflecting the discrete nature of the response data (via multinomial logistic regression). Lagged monthly average temperature values and lagged monthly average precipitation rates were better predictors of airborne and waterborne disease mortality than the concurrent (non-lagged) monthly averages. The lagged effects of temperature and precipitation on waterborne and airborne diseases were significant (except for the smooth lagged average monthly temperature effect for airborne diseases). There was also significant spatial heterogeneity (differences among city quarters) in the prevalence of deaths due to waterborne and airborne diseases.