17 Jan 2022
17 Jan 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal CP.

Greenhouse gases modulate the strength of millennial-scale subtropical rainfall, consistent with future predictions

Fei Guo1,2,3, Steven Clemens2, Yuming Liu1,4, Ting Wang1,4, Huimin Fan1, Xingxing Liu1, and Youbin Sun1,5,6 Fei Guo et al.
  • 1State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xian 710061, China
  • 2Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912-1846, USA
  • 3Institute of Marine Science and Technology, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, China
  • 4University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • 5CAS Center for Excellence in Quaternary Science and Global Change, Xian 710061, China
  • 6Open Studio for Oceanic-Continental Climate and Environment Changes, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao 266200, China

Abstract. Millennial-scale East Asian monsoon variability is closely associated with natural hazards through long-term variability in flood and drought cycles. Therefore, exploring what drives the millennial-scale variability is of significant importance for future prediction of extreme climates. Here we present a new East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall reconstruction from the northwest Chinese loess plateau spanning the past 650 kyr. The magnitude of millennial-scale variability (MMV) in EASM rainfall is linked to ice volume and greenhouse gas (GHG) at the 100-kyr earth-orbital eccentricity band and to GHG and summer insolation at the precession band. At the glacial-interglacial cycle, gradual changes in CO2 at times of intermediate ice volume leads to increased variability in North Atlantic stratification and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, propagating abrupt climate changes into East Asia via the westerlies. Within the 100-kyr cycle precession variability further enhances the response, showing that stronger insolation and increased atmospheric GHG cause increases in the MMV of EASM rainfall. These findings indicate increased extreme precipitation events under future warming scenarios, consistent with model results.

Fei Guo et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on cp-2021-188', Long Ma, 13 Mar 2022
  • RC1: 'Comment on cp-2021-188', Anonymous Referee #1, 14 Mar 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on cp-2021-188', Anonymous Referee #2, 22 Apr 2022

Fei Guo et al.


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Short summary
Our high-resolution loess Ca/Ti record displays millennial monsoon oscillations that persist over the last 650 kyr. Wavelet results indicate the ice volume and GHG co-modulation at 100 kyr band as well as GHG and local insolation forcing at precession band for the magnitude of millennial monsoon variability of loess Ca/Ti. The inferred mechanism calls on dynamic linkages to variability in AMOC. At the precession band, combined effects of GHG and insolation lead to increased extreme rainfall.