Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-176
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-176

  10 Dec 2021

10 Dec 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal CP.

Quantifying dating uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimate proxy archives

Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen1, Keno Riechers1,2, Martin Wibe Rypdal3, and Niklas Boers1,2,4 Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen et al.
  • 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
  • 2Technical University of Munich, Germany; School of Engineering & Design, Earth System Modelling
  • 3The University of Tromsø – The Arctic University of Norway, Norway
  • 4Department of Mathematics and Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, UK

Abstract. Paleoclimate proxy records have non-negligible uncertainties that arise from both the proxy measurement and the dating processes. Knowledge of the dating uncertainties is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses; for example for identification and dating of stadial-interstadial transitions in Greenland ice core records during glacial intervals, for comparing the variability in different proxy archives, and for model-data comparisons in general. In this study we develop a statistical framework to quantify and propagate dating uncertainties in layer-counted proxy archives using the example of the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05). We express the number of layers per depth interval as the sum of a structured component that represents both underlying physical processes and biases in layer counting, described by a regression model, and a noise component that represents the fluctuations of the underlying physical processes, as well as unbiased counting errors. The age-depth relationship of the joint dating uncertainties can then be described by a multivariate Gaussian process from which realizations of the chronology can be sampled. We show how the effect of an unknown counting bias can be incorporated in our framework and present refined estimates of the occurrence times of Dansgaard-Oeschger events evidenced in Greenland ice cores together with a complete uncertainty quantification of these timings.

Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen et al.

Status: open (until 04 Feb 2022)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on cp-2021-176', Anders Svensson, 27 Dec 2021 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on cp-2021-176', Frédéric Parrenin, 11 Jan 2022 reply

Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen et al.

Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 478 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
386 87 5 478 20 0 2
  • HTML: 386
  • PDF: 87
  • XML: 5
  • Total: 478
  • Supplement: 20
  • BibTeX: 0
  • EndNote: 2
Views and downloads (calculated since 10 Dec 2021)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 10 Dec 2021)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 436 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 436 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 21 Jan 2022
Download
Short summary
Frameworks for quantifying dating uncertainties are well studied in radiometrically dated archives, but are less researched in layer-counted archives. Using the example of the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 we express the joint age-depth relationship of layer-counted proxies by a Bayesian regression model from which chronologies can be sampled. When applied to the dating of Dansgaard-Oeschger events we find that our estimates are consistent with previous results, with narrower uncertainties.