26 Nov 2021

26 Nov 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal CP.

Documentary-based climate reconstructions in the Czech Lands 1501–2020 CE and their European context

Rudolf Brázdil1,2, Petr Dobrovolný1,2, Jiří Mikšovský2,3, Petr Pišoft3, Miroslav Trnka2,4, Martin Možný5, and Jan Balek2,4 Rudolf Brázdil et al.
  • 1Institute of Geography, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
  • 2Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic
  • 3Department of Atmospheric Physics, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
  • 4Department of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University in Brno, Brno, Czech Republic
  • 5Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Praha, Czech Republic

Abstract. Annual and seasonal temperature, precipitation and drought index (SPI, SPEI, Z-index, PDSI) series covering the Czech Lands territory (now the Czech Republic) over 520 years (1501–2020 CE) reconstructed from documentary data combined with instrumental observations were analysed herein. The temperature series exhibits a statistically significant increasing trend, rising from ~1890 and particularly from the 1970s; 1991–2020 represents the warmest and driest 30-year period since 1501 CE. While the long-term precipitation total fluctuations (and derived SPI fluctuations) remain relatively stable with annual and decadal variabilities, past temperature increases are the key factor affecting recent increasing dryness in the SPEI, Z-index and PDSI series. The seasonal temperature series represent a broad European area, while the seasonal precipitation series show lower spatial correlations. A statistical attribution analysis conducted utilizing regression and wavelet techniques confirmed the influence of covariates related to volcanic activity (prompting temporary temperature decreases, especially during summer) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (influential in all seasons except summer) in the Czech climate reconstructions. Furthermore, components tied to multidecadal variabilities in the northern Atlantic and northern Pacific were identified in the temperature and precipitation series and in the drought indices, revealing notable shared oscillations, particularly at periods of approximately 70–100 years.

Rudolf Brázdil et al.

Status: open (until 23 Jan 2022)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on cp-2021-168', Heinz Wanner, 21 Dec 2021 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on cp-2021-168', Anonymous Referee #2, 10 Jan 2022 reply

Rudolf Brázdil et al.

Rudolf Brázdil et al.


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Short summary
The paper deals with 520-year long series (1501–2020 CE) of temperature, precipitation and four drought indices reconstructed from documentary evidence and instrumental observations for the Czech Lands. Basic features of their fluctuations, long-term trends, periodicities and attribution to changes in external forcings and climate variability modes are analysed. Representativeness of Czech reconstructions in European scale is evaluated. The paper shows extreme character of past decades.