Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-146
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-146

  01 Nov 2021

01 Nov 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal CP.

Technical Note: Past and future warming – Direct comparison on multi-century timescales

Darrell Kaufman and Nicholas McKay Darrell Kaufman and Nicholas McKay
  • School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, 86011, USA

Abstract. In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that Northern Hemisphere temperatures had reached levels unprecedented in at least 1400 years. The 2021 report now sees global mean temperatures rising to levels unprecedented in over 100,000 years. This Technical Note briefly explains the reasons behind this major change. Namely, the new assessment reflects additional global warming that occurred between two reports, and improved paleotemperature reconstructions that extend further back in time. Critically, the conclusion also considers multi-century future warming, which thereby enables a direct comparison with paleotemperature reconstructions on multi-century time scales.

Darrell Kaufman and Nicholas McKay

Status: open (until 27 Dec 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on cp-2021-146', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Nov 2021 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on cp-2021-146', Dan Lunt, 19 Nov 2021 reply

Darrell Kaufman and Nicholas McKay

Darrell Kaufman and Nicholas McKay

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Short summary
Global mean surface temperatures are rising to levels unprecedented in over 100,000 years. This conclusion takes into account both recent global warming and likely future warming, which thereby enables a direct comparison with paleotemperature reconstructions on multi-century time scales.