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Climate of the Past An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2020-2
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2020-2
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  10 Mar 2020

10 Mar 2020

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A revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal CP and is expected to appear here in due course.

Climate simulations and pollen data reveal the distribution and connectivity of temperate tree populations in eastern Asia during the Last Glacial Maximum

Suzanne Alice Ghislaine Leroy1, Klaus Arpe2,, Uwe Mikolajewicz2, and Jing Wu3 Suzanne Alice Ghislaine Leroy et al.
  • 1Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, Minist Culture, LAMPEA, UMR 7269, 5 rue du Château de l'Horloge, BP 647, 13094 Aix-en-Provence Cedex 2, France
  • 2Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
  • 3Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Science (IGGCAS) Beijing, 100029, P. R. China
  • retired

Abstract. Publications on temperate deciduous tree refugia in Europe are abundant, but little is known about the patterns of temperate tree refugia in eastern Asia, an area where biodiversity survived Quaternary glaciations and which has the world's most diverse temperate flora. Our goal is to compare climate model simulations with pollen data in order to establish the location of glacial refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) period. Limits in which temperate deciduous trees can survive are taken from the literature. The model outputs are first tested for the present by comparing climate models with published modern pollen data. As this method turned out to be satisfactory for the present, the same approach was used for the LGM, Climate model simulations (ECHAM5 T106), statistically further down-scaled, are used to infer the temperate deciduous trees distribution during the LGM. These were compared with available fossil temperate tree pollen occurrences.

The impact of the LGM on the eastern Asia climate was much weaker than on the European climate. The area of possible tree growth shifts only by about 2° to the south between the present and the LGM. This contributes to explain the greater biodiversity of forests in eastern Asia compared to Europe. Climate simulations and the available, although fractional, fossil pollen data agree. Therefore climate estimations can safely be used to fill areas without pollen data by mapping potential refugia distributions. The results show two important areas with population connectivity: the Yellow Sea emerged shelf and the southern Himalayas. These two areas were suitable for temperate deciduous tree growth, providing corridors for population migration and connectivity (i.e. less population fragmentation) in glacial and in interglacial periods. Many tree populations live in interglacial refugia; not glacial ones. The fact that the model simulation for the LGM fits so well with observed pollen distribution is another indication that the used model is good to simulate also the LGM period.

Suzanne Alice Ghislaine Leroy et al.

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Suzanne Alice Ghislaine Leroy et al.

Suzanne Alice Ghislaine Leroy et al.

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Short summary
Biodiversity of temperate deciduous trees in E Asia is greater than in Europe. The distribution of pollen data was collected from literature. We used a climate model to calculate the potential distribution of such trees in the present and Last Glacial Maximum. Distributions obtained from pollen data and from models agree. Thus the model can be used to estimate potential tree growth. LGM shift to south was only 2°. Greater population connectivity was shown for Yellow Sea and South Himalayas.
Biodiversity of temperate deciduous trees in E Asia is greater than in Europe. The...
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