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Climate of the Past

Clim. Past

1814-9332

Copernicus Publications

Göttingen, Germany

10.5194/cp-9-367-2013

A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial Maximum

Annan

J. D.

¹ Hargreaves

J. C.

Research Institute for Global Change, Yokohama, Japan

13 02 2013

9 1 367 376

2013

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Some recent compilations of proxy data both on land and ocean (MARGO Project Members, 2009; Bartlein et al., 2011; Shakun et al., 2012), have provided a new opportunity for an improved assessment of the overall climatic state of the Last Glacial Maximum. In this paper, we combine these proxy data with the ensemble of structurally diverse state of the art climate models which participated in the PMIP2 project (Braconnot et al., 2007) to generate a spatially complete reconstruction of surface air (and sea surface) temperatures. We test a variety of approaches, and show that multiple linear regression performs well for this application. Our reconstruction is significantly different to and more accurate than previous approaches and we obtain an estimated global mean cooling of 4.0 ± 0.8 °C (95% CI).

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