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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">CP</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Climate of the Past</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">CP</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Clim. Past</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1814-9332</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/cp-3-591-2007</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Millennial temperature reconstruction intercomparison and evaluation</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Juckes</surname>
<given-names>M. N.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Allen</surname>
<given-names>M. R.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Briffa</surname>
<given-names>K. R.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Esper</surname>
<given-names>J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hegerl</surname>
<given-names>G. C.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Moberg</surname>
<given-names>A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Osborn</surname>
<given-names>T. J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Weber</surname>
<given-names>S. L.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>British Atmospheric Data Centre, SSTD, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Chilton, Didcot, Oxfordshire, OX11 0QX, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>University of Oxford, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Clarendon Laboratory, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Div. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Science, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Department of Meteorology and Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Postbus 201, 3730 AE De Bilt, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>05</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>3</volume>
<issue>4</issue>
<fpage>591</fpage>
<lpage>609</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2007 M. N. Juckes et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2007</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 Generic License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/3/591/2007/cp-3-591-2007.html">This article is available from https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/3/591/2007/cp-3-591-2007.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/3/591/2007/cp-3-591-2007.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/3/591/2007/cp-3-591-2007.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>There has been considerable recent interest in paleoclimate reconstructions
of the temperature history of
the last millennium. A wide variety of techniques have been used.
The interrelation among the techniques is sometimes unclear, as
different studies often use distinct data sources as well as distinct methodologies.
Here recent work is reviewed and some new calculations performed
with an aim to clarifying the consequences of the different approaches used.
A range of proxy data collections introduced by different authors is used
to estimate Northern Hemispheric annual mean temperatures
with two reconstruction algorithms:
(1) inverse regression and,
(2) compositing followed by variance matching (CVM).
It is found that inverse regression tends to give large weighting to
a small number of proxies and that the second approach (CVM) is more robust
to varying proxy input.
The choice of proxy records is one
reason why different reconstructions show different ranges.
A reconstruction using 13 proxy records extending back to AD 1000 shows a
maximum pre-industrial temperature of 0.25 K (relative to the 1866 to 1970 mean).
The standard error on this estimate, based on the residual in the calibration
period, is 0.14 K. Instrumental temperatures for two recent years
(1998 and 2005) have exceeded the pre-industrial
estimated maximum by more than 4 standard deviations of the calibration period residual.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="19"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
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