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  <front>
    <journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">CP</journal-id><journal-title-group>
    <journal-title>Climate of the Past</journal-title>
    <abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">CP</abbrev-journal-title><abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Clim. Past</abbrev-journal-title>
  </journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">1814-9332</issn><publisher>
    <publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
    <publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
  </publisher></journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/cp-17-775-2021</article-id><title-group><article-title>Cryogenic cave carbonates in the Dolomites (northern Italy): insights into
Younger Dryas cooling and seasonal precipitation</article-title><alt-title>Cryogenic cave carbonates in the Dolomites (northern Italy)</alt-title>
      </title-group><?xmltex \runningtitle{Cryogenic cave carbonates in the Dolomites (northern Italy)}?><?xmltex \runningauthor{G. Koltai et al.}?>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Koltai</surname><given-names>Gabriella</given-names></name>
          <email>gabriella.koltai@uibk.ac.at</email>
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6084-6890</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Spötl</surname><given-names>Christoph</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7167-4940</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff2">
          <name><surname>Jarosch</surname><given-names>Alexander H.</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff3 aff4 aff5">
          <name><surname>Cheng</surname><given-names>Hai</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><institution>Institute of Geology, University of Innsbruck, Innrain 52d, 6020
Innsbruck, Austria</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><institution>ThetaFrame Solutions, Hörfarterstrasse 14, 6330 Kufstein, Austria</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff3"><label>3</label><institution>Institute of Global Environmental Change, Xi'an Jiaotong
University, Xi'an, China</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff4"><label>4</label><institution>State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of
Earth Environment, <?xmltex \hack{\break}?>Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an, China</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff5"><label>5</label><institution>Department of Earth Sciences, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis,
MN, USA</institution>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <author-notes><corresp id="corr1">Gabriella Koltai (gabriella.koltai@uibk.ac.at)</corresp></author-notes><pub-date><day>6</day><month>April</month><year>2021</year></pub-date>
      
      <volume>17</volume>
      <issue>2</issue>
      <fpage>775</fpage><lpage>789</lpage>
      <history>
        <date date-type="received"><day>5</day><month>August</month><year>2020</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-request"><day>25</day><month>August</month><year>2020</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-recd"><day>18</day><month>February</month><year>2021</year></date>
           <date date-type="accepted"><day>24</day><month>February</month><year>2021</year></date>
      </history>
      <permissions>
        <copyright-statement>Copyright: © 2021 Gabriella Koltai et al.</copyright-statement>
        <copyright-year>2021</copyright-year>
      <license license-type="open-access"><license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/775/2021/cp-17-775-2021.html">This article is available from https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/775/2021/cp-17-775-2021.html</self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/775/2021/cp-17-775-2021.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/775/2021/cp-17-775-2021.pdf</self-uri>
      <abstract><title>Abstract</title>
    <p id="d1e138">In the European Alps, the Younger Dryas (YD) was
characterised by the last major glacier advance, with equilibrium line
altitudes being <inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 220 to 290 m lower than during the Little
Ice Age, and also by the development of rock glaciers. Dating of these
geomorphic features, however, is associated with substantial uncertainties,
leading to considerable ambiguities regarding the internal structure of this
stadial, which is the most intensively studied one of the last glacial period. Here,
we provide robust physical evidence based on <inline-formula><mml:math id="M2" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th-dated cryogenic cave
carbonates (CCCs) from a cave located at 2274 m a.s.l. in the Dolomites of
northern Italy coupled with thermal modelling, indicating that early YD
winters were only moderately cold in this part of the Alps. More precisely,
we find that the mean annual air temperature dropped <inline-formula><mml:math id="M3" display="inline"><mml:mo>≤</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M4" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C
at the Allerød–YD transition. Our data suggest that autumns and early
winters in the early part of the YD were relatively snow-rich, resulting in
stable winter snow cover. The latter insulated the shallow subsurface in
winter and allowed the cave interior to remain close to the freezing point
(0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M5" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C) year-round, promoting CCC formation. The main phase of CCC
precipitation at <inline-formula><mml:math id="M6" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 12.2 ka  coincided with the mid-YD
transition recorded in other archives across Europe. Based on thermal
modelling we propose that CCC formation at <inline-formula><mml:math id="M7" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 12.2 ka was
most likely associated with a slight warming of approximately
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M8" display="inline"><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M9" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C in conjunction with drier autumns and early winters in the
second half of the YD. These changes triggered CCC formation in this Alpine
cave as well as ice glacier retreat and rock glacier expansion across the
Alps.</p>
  </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
<body>
      

<sec id="Ch1.S1" sec-type="intro">
  <label>1</label><title>Introduction</title>
      <p id="d1e222">The last glacial period in the Northern Hemisphere (from 119 to 11.7
thousand years (ka) before present; Rasmussen et al., 2014) was characterised by abrupt
climate shifts from cold and commonly arid stadials to mild and more humid
interstadials. The youngest of these stadials is known as the Younger Dryas
(YD or Greenland Stadial (GS) 1, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M10" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 12.8 to 11.7 ka;
Rasmussen et al., 2014) and was a period when Northern Hemisphere
temperatures returned to near-glacial levels, interrupting the last
termination.</p>
      <p id="d1e232">The YD is among the most extensively studied periods in the late Quaternary
due to the availability of high-resolution palaeoclimate records such as
ice, marine and lacustrine sediment cores. Still, the forcing mechanism(s)
for this cold episode remain debated
(Alley,
2000; Baldini et al., 2018; Brauer et al., 2008; Broecker et al., 2010;
Isarin et al., 1998; Renssen et al., 2015). The most widely accepted model
invokes a near shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
(AMOC) as a result of a major meltwater injection into the North Atlantic
Ocean (e.g. Broecker et al., 1989) and the
concomitant large-scale reorganisation of the westerlies due to extensive
winter sea-ice formation (e.g. Bakke et
al., 2009; Brauer et al., 2008). In a recent study<?pagebreak page776?> using high-resolution
speleothem records from Europe as well as the Asian monsoon and South American
monsoon regions, Cheng et al. (2020)
demonstrated a north-to-south climate signal propagation via both
atmospheric and oceanic processes at the onset of the YD. The authors also
suggested that unlike other DO events, the termination of the YD was most
probably initiated by a change in the western tropical Pacific and the
Southern Hemisphere, resulting in a strengthening of the AMOC.</p>
      <p id="d1e235">The slowdown of the AMOC at the onset of the YD and the resulting southward
displacement of the polar front and the westerlies led to cold conditions in
N and NW Europe during prolonged winters
(e.g. Broecker, 2006;
Denton et al., 2005). In a recent study using a European-wide compilation of
plant indicator species, Schenk et al. (2018) suggested
that YD summers remained relatively warm despite the AMOC slowdown, with
temperature decreases of 4.3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M11" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C in NW Europe and 0.3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M12" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C in E Europe
relative to the preceding Bølling–Allerød interstadial (Greenland
Interstadial (GI) 1). Using climate model simulations,
Schenk et al. (2018) attributed relatively warm summers to
atmospheric blocking induced by the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet, preventing the
penetration of cold westerly air masses into Europe during the short
summers. In contrast, blocking was almost absent during YD winters
(Renssen et al., 1996). Overall, proxy
data suggest that the YD climate was dominated by high seasonality and
continentality across Europe with large meridional summer temperature
gradients (e.g. Heiri et al., 2014a). Changes in
winter climate were likely disproportionally larger (e.g.
Broecker, 2006), but quantitative understanding of
the YD climate remains heavily biased towards the summer given the scarcity
of winter proxy data.</p>
      <p id="d1e256">Speleothem-based palaeotemperature reconstructions from the Jura Mountains
in northern Switzerland suggest a large drop in the mean annual air
temperature (MAAT) of up to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M13" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M14" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C during the YD
(Affolter
et al., 2019; Ghadiri et al., 2018), while preliminary results of a similar
study from a cave in western Austria suggest a much smaller difference
(5.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M15" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C) (Luetscher et al., 2016). Rock glacier
records from the Err–Julier area of the SE Swiss Alps argue for an even
smaller cooling of only up to 3–4 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M16" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C
(Frauenfelder et al., 2001).</p>
      <p id="d1e297">More recently, evidence for a time-transgressive climate shift midway
through the YD has been reported from lacustrine sediments (e.g.
Bakke et
al., 2009; Brauer et al., 2008; Schlolaut et al., 2017), speleothems
(Baldini
et al., 2015; Bartolomé et al., 2015; Rossi et al., 2018) and marine
sediments in Europe
(Naughton et
al., 2019). This climate shift has been attributed to a gradual northward
movement of the polar front driven by the resumption of the AMOC and
concomitant sea-ice retreat in the North Atlantic. The earliest indication
of a climate shift during the mid-YD is recorded by a stalagmite from the
Pyrenees, showing a gradual transition from dry to wet conditions starting
at 12.45 ka (Bartolomé et al., 2015).
It took about 300 years for this shift to propagate to central and
finally to northern Europe, where it is documented as a rapid change in Ti
content and varve thickness (Bakke et
al., 2009; Lane et al., 2013). While many records from SW
(Baldini
et al., 2015; Bartolomé et al., 2015; Naughton et al., 2019; Rossi et
al., 2018) and N Europe indicate that the first half of the YD was colder
and drier than the second one, biomarker data from lacustrine sediments of
the Gemündener Maar in W Germany suggest an opposite trend
(Hepp et al., 2019).</p>
      <p id="d1e300">In the Alps, climate information about the YD has been traditionally derived
from studies of lake sediments
(e.g. von
Grafenstein et al., 1999; Heiri et al., 2014a; Lauterbach et al., 2011) and
glacier reconstructions
(e.g.
Ivy-Ochs et al., 2009; Kerschner et al., 2000; Kerschner and Ivy-Ochs, 2008;
Moran et al., 2016), complemented by a few cave records
(Li et al., 2020;
Luetscher et al., 2016; Wurth et al., 2004). Studies on the internal
structure of the YD, however, are rare and compromised by poor dating
resolution, limiting our understanding of the mechanism(s) of the proposed
mid-YD climate shift. Alpine palaeoglacier records suggest an early YD
glacier maximum between about 13.5 and 12.0 ka attributed to a
combination of low temperatures and enhanced precipitation differences
between the northern, central and southern part of the Alps
(Ivy-Ochs,
2015; Kerschner et al., 2016; Kerschner and Ivy-Ochs, 2008). Equilibrium
line altitude reconstructions show that the inner zone of the Alps received
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M17" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 20 %–30 % less precipitation than today, mostly due to a
decrease in winter precipitation, while annual precipitation in the southern
Alps was probably similar to modern values (Kerschner et al.,
2016). Palaeoglaciers from the southern Alps show evidence of a double
response, whereby the outermost and innermost moraines stabilised at
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M18" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 12.3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M19" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.7 ka and before 11.2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M20" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.8 ka,
respectively
(Baroni
et al., 2017; Ivy-Ochs et al., 2009).</p>
      <p id="d1e331">In this study we focus on the Dolomites in the southern Alps and provide
seasonally resolved insights into the climate of the YD from cave deposits
anchored by a precise <inline-formula><mml:math id="M21" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th chronology. Given that the polar front
reached as far south as the Alps during the early YD
(Lane et al., 2013), this site is sensitive enough to
track the northward migration of the polar front during the later YD. Rather
than examining stalagmites commonly used in speleothem-based palaeoclimate
research, we utilise a rather novel speleothem variety which provides a
uniquely robust temperature control: coarsely crystalline cryogenic cave
carbonate (CCC for short). The leading genetic model envisages CCC formation
under degrading permafrost conditions
(e.g. Žák et al., 2018). Water
ingresses into the cave when the seasonally thawing active layer of
permafrost intersects the ceiling of the cave chamber while most of the
chamber is still within the permafrost, resulting in cave ice formation.
Further climate warming leads to progressive degradation of permafrost and
the cave air temperature slowly rises to 0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M22" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C. Drip water creates
meltwater pools in the cave ice bodies that freeze slowly, triggering the
precipitation of CCCs. Regardless of the<?pagebreak page777?> details of this model, the key point
is that CCCs form within perennial cave ice at stable temperatures very close
to 0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M23" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C (Žák et al., 2018).</p>
      <p id="d1e361">Using a high-Alpine cave whose palaeothermal regime is assessed by heat-flow
modelling, we use CCC data to argue against strong winter cooling during the
early YD in the southern Alps. Furthermore, we demonstrate that CCC formation
in the shallow subsurface provides evidence of a maximum of 1–2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M24" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C
annual warming at the mid-YD transition and suggests that autumns and
winters may have become slightly drier in the second half of the YD.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2">
  <label>2</label><title>Study site</title>
      <p id="d1e381">Cioccherloch (Pozzo F22 Alpe di Fosses, cave cadaster no. 4977 V BL) is a
single-entrance cave opening at 2274 m a.s.l. on the karst plateau of the
Sennes region in the Dolomites (Fig. 1). The cave has approximately 250 m of
passages. The entrance shaft is 20 m deep and intersects a subhorizontal
cave level. A snow and ice cone is present at the bottom of this shaft fed
by winter snow sliding down the shaft. Separated by a narrow squeeze which
was excavated by cavers, a separate branch of the cave 60 m long and up to
10 m high descends from this upper cave level to approximately 55 m below
the surface. Near the lower end of this gallery CCCs were discovered for the
first time in the Dolomites (Fig. 1). The air temperature at the CCC site
monitored over a 1-year period averages 2.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M25" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C with minimum values
(2.2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M26" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C) in January to March and maximum values (2.7 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M27" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C)
in November. These data show that the cave chamber is in thermal equilibrium
with the outside MAAT at this elevation, obtained from nearby weather
stations at Rossalm (2340 m a.s.l.) and Piz la Ila (2050 m a.s.l.) located
less than 10 km from the study site. The mean air temperature is
2.2 and 3.3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M28" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C at Rossalm and Piz la Ila,
respectively (2015–2018; data source: Hydrographisches Amt, Autonome Provinz
Bozen–Südtirol). The majority of snowfall in the Dolomites occurs
from January to April with average snow heights of 4.2 and 3.4 m at Rossalm
(2012–2019) and Piz la Ila (1999–2014), respectively. Autumn to early winter
(September to December) snowfall amounts to an average of 1.0 and 0.8 m at
the two weather stations.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F1" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{1}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 1</label><caption><p id="d1e422">Relief map of Europe (upper left corner) and the Alps showing the
location of Cioccherloch (red triangle) and other European YD speleothem
(black triangle), lacustrine (white cross) and palaeoglacier (black circle)
records <bold>(a)</bold> mentioned in the text (1 – Milandre Cave, 2
– Bärenhöhle, 3 – Meerfelder Maar, 4 – Maloja Pass, 5 –
Ammersee, 6 – Mondsee, 7 – Err–Julier area). Vertical cross section of
Cioccherloch Cave showing the cryogenic cave carbonate (CCC) occurrence in
the terminal chamber <bold>(b)</bold>.</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/775/2021/cp-17-775-2021-f01.png"/>

      </fig>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3">
  <label>3</label><title>Methods</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS1">
  <label>3.1</label><title>Fieldwork</title>
      <p id="d1e452">CCC occurrences were mapped and samples were collected from five distinct
heaps labelled A to E (Supplement Fig. S1). In addition, a small in situ
stalagmite was taken from the same chamber. Cave air temperature was
recorded on an hourly basis using a Hobo Temp Pro v2 logger (Onset Computer Corp.) between
August 2016 and July 2017.</p><?xmltex \hack{\newpage}?>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS2">
  <label>3.2</label><title>Morphological characterisation</title>
      <p id="d1e464">CCC samples were cleaned in an ultrasonic bath prior to documentation and
laboratory analyses. Individual morphologies were examined using a Keyence
VHX-6000 digital microscope.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS3">
  <label>3.3</label><title>Stable isotope analyses</title>
      <p id="d1e475">CCC samples were analysed for their stable oxygen and carbon isotope
composition using isotope ratio mass spectrometry (Spötl
and Vennemann, 2003). In addition, two larger CCC particles were cut in half
and micromilled at 0.1 to 0.3 mm resolution. The results are reported
relative to the VPDB standard with a long-term precision better than <inline-formula><mml:math id="M29" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.08 ‰ (1<inline-formula><mml:math id="M30" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>) for both <inline-formula><mml:math id="M31" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">13</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>C and
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M32" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">18</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>O.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS4">
  <label>3.4</label><?xmltex \opttitle{${}^{{230}}$Th dating}?><title><inline-formula><mml:math id="M33" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th dating</title>
      <p id="d1e531">A total of 19 individual CCC particles were selected for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M34" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th dating; 15–20 mg of calcite was drilled using a handheld drill from the centre of 17
crystals in a laminar flow hood. Two skeletal CCC crystals were analysed as
a whole as they were too small for aliquots to be drilled from them. Growth
layers of a stalagmite (Cioc1) collected next to the CCC spots were drilled
at three discrete horizons (2, 24 and 50 mm from the top) and prepared for
analyses.</p>
      <p id="d1e543">Ages were determined by measuring U and Th isotope ratios on a
multi-collector inductively coupled mass spectrometer after their chemical
separation following Edwards
et al. (1987) and
Cheng et al. (2013).
Analyses were performed at Xian Jiaotong University (China); 2<inline-formula><mml:math id="M35" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>
uncertainties for U and Th isotopic measurements include corrections for
blanks, multiplier dark noise, abundance sensitivity and contents of the
same nuclides in the spike solution. Decay constants for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M36" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th and
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M37" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">234</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>U were reported by
Cheng et al. (2013).
Corrected <inline-formula><mml:math id="M38" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th ages assume an initial <inline-formula><mml:math id="M39" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th <inline-formula><mml:math id="M40" display="inline"><mml:mo>/</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M41" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">232</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th atomic
ratio of (4.4 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M42" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2.2) <inline-formula><mml:math id="M43" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M44" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">6</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> and a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M45" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">232</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th <inline-formula><mml:math id="M46" display="inline"><mml:mo>/</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M47" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">238</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>U
value of 3.8 as the value for material at secular equilibrium with the bulk
earth. Final ages are given in years before present (before CE 1950).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS5">
  <label>3.5</label><title>Thermal modelling</title>
      <?pagebreak page778?><p id="d1e667">Heat conduction from the surface to 70 m depths was modelled using a 1D
heat-flow model (<ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3982221" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5281/zenodo.3982221</ext-link>) that
considers conductive heat transfer only and solves the heat equation (Eq. 1)
utilising finite differences as space discretisations alongside a forward
Euler time-stepping scheme, stabilised with a diffusion-type
Courant–Friedrichs–Lewy condition. The heat equation (Eq. 1) is described
as
            <disp-formula id="Ch1.E1" content-type="numbered"><label>1</label><mml:math id="M48" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">α</mml:mi><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
          where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M49" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">α</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is the thermal diffusivity, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M50" display="inline"><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is temperature and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M51" display="inline"><mml:mi>z</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is the
vertical coordinate. The model assumes a homogenous host rock with no
internal heat generation. Thermal diffusivity (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M52" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">α</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of the limestone
was set to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M53" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.2</mml:mn><mml:mo>×</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula><inline-formula><mml:math id="M54" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">6</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M55" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> s<inline-formula><mml:math id="M56" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> (Hanley
et al., 1978) to account for some air-filled porosity.</p>
      <p id="d1e791">As the lower boundary condition for the model, the ground heat flux was set
to 0 to account for the presence of the shaft in the entrance zone of the
cave, allowing exchange with the ambient air in this upper part of the cave
above the CCC-bearing gallery and suppressing the minor effect of the
geothermal heat flux. Modelling results are shown as MAAT against depth
below the surface (Supplement Figs. S2–S4).</p>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS5.SSS1">
  <label>3.5.1</label><?xmltex \opttitle{Scenario 1 -- Aller{\o}d interstadial}?><title>Scenario 1 – Allerød interstadial</title>
      <p id="d1e802">We performed a series of model runs simulating possible climate scenarios
for the YD (Table 1). Palaeotemperature estimates are based on published
regional annual and summer air temperature reconstructions. All experiments
started with a 1000-year-long Allerød climate (scenario 1) and a
2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M57" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C drop in MAAT compared to the present day (i.e. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M58" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>MAAT<inline-formula><mml:math id="M59" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mtext>Modern-Allerød</mml:mtext></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M60" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C), consistent with
regional proxy data
(e.g.
Ilyashuk et al., 2009). As stalagmite Cioc1 was actively growing in the
Bølling interstadial (see the Results section), we assume that no permafrost was
present at the site at the start of the interstadial. Hence, a surface ground
temperature of 1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M61" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C was used.</p>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T1" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{1}?><label>Table 1</label><caption><p id="d1e858">Input parameters for 1D heat conduction models simulating climate
during the Allerød interstadial (1), the early YD (2a–2e) and the late YD
at the study site (3a–3c). Snow <inline-formula><mml:math id="M62" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> describes the attenuation of the
winter cold by the snowpack, whereas the resultant annual air temperature
used as a boundary condition for the thermal model is expressed as the mean
annual effective temperature (MAET). Modern-day values are shown for
comparison.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><?xmltex \begin{scaleboxenv}{.845}[.845]?><oasis:tgroup cols="11">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="right" colsep="1"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="right" colsep="1"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="5" colname="col5" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="6" colname="col6" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="7" colname="col7" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="8" colname="col8" align="right" colsep="1"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="9" colname="col9" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="10" colname="col10" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="11" colname="col11" align="right"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Modern</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" colname="col3">Allerød</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" namest="col4" nameend="col8" align="center" colsep="1">Early YD </oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" namest="col9" nameend="col11" align="center">Late YD </oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">Scenario 1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">Scenario 2a</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">Scenario 2b</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">Scenario 2c</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">Scenario 2d</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">Scenario 2e</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">Scenario 3a</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10">Scenario 3b</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11">Scenario 3c</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M63" display="inline"><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> July [<inline-formula><mml:math id="M64" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C]</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">11</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">9</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">7</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">8</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">8</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">8</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">8</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">8</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10">8</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11">8</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M65" display="inline"><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> January [<inline-formula><mml:math id="M66" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C]</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M67" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">6</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M68" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">8</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M69" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">20</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M70" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">13</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M71" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">13</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M72" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">12</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M73" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">12</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M74" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">12</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M75" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">11</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M76" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">11</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">MAAT [<inline-formula><mml:math id="M77" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C]</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">2.5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">0.5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M78" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">6.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M79" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M80" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M81" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.0</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M82" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.0</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M83" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.0</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M84" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M85" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Snow <inline-formula><mml:math id="M86" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> [<inline-formula><mml:math id="M87" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C]</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">4.7</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">2.0</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11">2.5</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">MAET [<inline-formula><mml:math id="M88" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>]</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M89" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M90" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.9</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M91" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M92" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.8</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Initial thermal</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">output of</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">output of</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">output of</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">output of</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">output of</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">output of</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10">output of</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11">output of</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">conditions</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">scenario 1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">scenario 1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">scenario 1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">scenario 1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">scenario 1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">scenario 2e</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10">scenario 2c</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11">scenario 2c</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup><?xmltex \end{scaleboxenv}?></oasis:table></table-wrap>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS5.SSS2">
  <label>3.5.2</label><title>Scenario 2 – stadial conditions during the early YD</title>
      <p id="d1e1464">The model output of scenario 1 was used as the starting condition for all
scenario 2 runs. Scenarios 2a to 2e were used to model the evolution of
subsurface conditions during the early YD. As the mid-YD transition was
determined at 12 240 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M93" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 40 varve years before present at Meerfelder Maar,<?pagebreak page779?> Germany
(Lane et al., 2013), scenario 2 models were
run for 610 years (i.e. from 12.85 to 12.24 ka).</p>
      <p id="d1e1474">As a first step we modelled the penetration of the seasonal signal without
the presence of winter snow (scenarios 2a, 2b, 2d) to provide an endmember
for early YD cooling. Scenario 2a was forced with a large atmospheric
cooling (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M94" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>MAAT<inline-formula><mml:math id="M95" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mtext>Allerød-early YD</mml:mtext></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">7</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M96" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C) in accordance with speleothem-based palaeotemperatures from northern
Switzerland
(Affolter
et al., 2019; Ghadiri et al., 2018). This experiment used a MAAT of
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M97" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">6.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M98" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C (i.e. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M99" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">20</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M100" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C in January; Table 1) to model the
thermal evolution of the subsurface. In scenario 2b we applied a smaller
cooling of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M101" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>MAAT<inline-formula><mml:math id="M102" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mtext>Allerød-early YD</mml:mtext></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M103" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C (i.e. MAAT of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M104" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M105" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">13</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M106" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C in
January; Table 1), as suggested by stalagmite fluid inclusion data from
western Austria (Luetscher et al., 2016). Scenario 2d
considers an even smaller cooling (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M107" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>MAAT<inline-formula><mml:math id="M108" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mtext>Allerød-early
YD </mml:mtext></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M109" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C), as suggested by rock glacier records from the
Err–Julier area of the southern Alps (Frauenfelder et al.,
2001), and a MAAT of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M110" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M111" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C was used (i.e. 12 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M112" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C in
January; Table 1).</p>
      <p id="d1e1671">In a second step we included the buffering effect of a stable winter
snowpack insulating the ground from the winter chill. This buffering effect
(expressed as snow <inline-formula><mml:math id="M113" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) was set to its maximum in scenarios 2c and 2e
to test if a similar amplitude of cooling investigated in scenarios 2b and
2d (Table 1) would allow CCC formation in the presence of winter snow
cover. Experiment 2c used a MAAT of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M114" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M115" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C and simulated the
maximum possible buffering of the winter snowpack of 5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M116" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C (i.e.
snow <inline-formula><mml:math id="M117" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of 5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M118" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C), resulting in a mean annual effective
temperature (MAET) at the base of the snowpack of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M119" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M120" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C (Table 1).</p>
      <p id="d1e1751">In scenario 2e the thermal buffering of the snow cover was set again to its
maximum value, and we used a snow <inline-formula><mml:math id="M121" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of 4.7 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M122" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C in
combination with a MAAT of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M123" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M124" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C, resulting in a MAET of
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M125" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.9</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M126" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C (Table 1). Measurements in modern permafrost areas in NE
China have suggested mean ground surface temperatures to be up to 9 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M127" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C
higher, with 10–25 cm of snow cover during winter, resulting in an annual net
thermal effect (i.e. snow <inline-formula><mml:math id="M128" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) of 3 to 5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M129" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C for 10 to 40 cm thick snow cover (Zhang et al., 2005). Similar values were reported from
the permafrost regions of the Arctic in Russia (Zhang et al., 2005). Thus,
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M130" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> values of 5 and 4.7 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M131" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C are considered to
be realistic for the YD at this Alpine setting.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS5.SSS3">
  <label>3.5.3</label><title>Scenario 3 – stadial conditions during the late YD</title>
      <p id="d1e1868">Three simulations investigate the influence of climate change at the mid-YD
transition. Scenario 3a simulates a rapid reduction in winter snow cover
without a temperature change with respect to scenario 2e (Table 1). We kept the
MAAT constant at <inline-formula><mml:math id="M132" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.0</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M133" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C and reduced snow <inline-formula><mml:math id="M134" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> from
4.7 to 2.0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M135" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C (Table 1).</p>
      <p id="d1e1909">In scenarios 3b and 3c we applied a warming of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M136" display="inline"><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M137" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C in MAAT
compared to scenario 2c. In these two runs summer temperatures were kept
constant and a small amount of winter warming was allowed. We kept the
climate warming at 1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M138" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C (i.e. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M139" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>MAAT<inline-formula><mml:math id="M140" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mtext>Allerød-late YD</mml:mtext></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M141" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C) because a larger
warming would result in a climate similar to the preceding Allerød. While
scenario 3b only considers atmospheric warming, we allow some late summer
and autumn snow accumulation in scenario 3c (snow <inline-formula><mml:math id="M142" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M143" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C; Table 1).</p>
</sec>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4">
  <label>4</label><title>Results</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS1">
  <label>4.1</label><title>CCC morphology</title>
      <p id="d1e2010">CCCs occur as loose crystals and crystal aggregates in small heaps on and
partly underneath five breakdown blocks (Supplement Fig. S1). Individual crystals
and aggregates thereof come in a variety of shapes and sizes, the largest
reaching 1.4 cm in length. Morphologies include amber-coloured crystals and
crystal aggregates of rhombic, raft, beak-like and split crystal habits
(Supplement Fig. S1). Split and beak-like crystals are most abundant (heaps A, B
and D). Translucent skeletal crystals are rarely present in heaps B and D
but are dominant in C and E.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS2">
  <label>4.2</label><title>Stable isotope composition</title>
      <?pagebreak page780?><p id="d1e2021">CCCs show high <inline-formula><mml:math id="M144" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">13</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>C values varying from 1.3 ‰ to
5.4 ‰ and low <inline-formula><mml:math id="M145" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">18</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>O values ranging from <inline-formula><mml:math id="M146" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">21.8</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ‰
to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M147" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10.1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ‰ (Fig. 2, Supplement Table S1). These values fall
within the compositional range characteristic of CCCs (Žák et al.,
2018, and references therein), confirming their precipitation in slowly
freezing pockets of water enclosed in cave ice. A beak-like crystal 4.5 mm in diameter revealed <inline-formula><mml:math id="M148" display="inline"><mml:mo>≤</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1.3 ‰ and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M149" display="inline"><mml:mo>≤</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1.2 ‰ of internal variability in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M150" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">13</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>C and
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M151" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">18</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>O, respectively, while a 5 mm rhombohedral crystal
shows <inline-formula><mml:math id="M152" display="inline"><mml:mo>≤</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.4 ‰ and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M153" display="inline"><mml:mo>≤</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.2 ‰,
respectively. Holocene stalagmites from the same chamber exhibit distinctly
different stable isotope values, with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M154" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">13</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>C and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M155" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">18</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>O
values ranging from <inline-formula><mml:math id="M156" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">7.6</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ‰ to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M157" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.0</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ‰ and from <inline-formula><mml:math id="M158" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">9.1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ‰ to
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M159" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">7.4</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ‰, respectively (Fig. 2).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F2"><?xmltex \currentcnt{2}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 2</label><caption><p id="d1e2182">Stable isotope composition of CCC from Cioccherloch Cave. Samples
from different CCC heaps are colour-coded. Values of two Holocene
stalagmites from the same cave gallery are shown for comparison (unpublished
data by the authors).</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/775/2021/cp-17-775-2021-f02.png"/>

        </fig>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS3">
  <label>4.3</label><?xmltex \opttitle{${}^{{230}}$Th dating}?><title><inline-formula><mml:math id="M160" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th dating</title>
      <p id="d1e2208">The <inline-formula><mml:math id="M161" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">238</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>U concentration of CCC samples varies from 0.8 to 2.2 ppm (Table 2). Four samples yielded <inline-formula><mml:math id="M162" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th <inline-formula><mml:math id="M163" display="inline"><mml:mo>/</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M164" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">232</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th atomic ratios less than
100 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M165" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M166" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">6</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>, indicating significant detrital contamination
(Table 2), and the corresponding ages were excluded. The 2<inline-formula><mml:math id="M167" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> precision
of the remaining 13 ages ranges from 0.4 % to 2.7 %.</p>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T2" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{2}?><label>Table 2</label><caption><p id="d1e2275"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M168" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th dating results for cryogenic calcite samples (FOS12) and
a stalagmite (Cioc1) from Cioccherloch. Letters in the sample names of CCC
(i.e. A, B, C, D, E) indicate the heap where the sample was collected, as
shown in Fig. 2. Four samples were excluded from the discussion (italics)
because of their excessive <inline-formula><mml:math id="M169" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">232</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th values. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M170" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">234</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>U <inline-formula><mml:math id="M171" display="inline"><mml:mo>=</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>
([<inline-formula><mml:math id="M172" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">234</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>U<inline-formula><mml:math id="M173" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">238</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>U]<inline-formula><mml:math id="M174" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">activity</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>×</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1000</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M175" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">234</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>U<inline-formula><mml:math id="M176" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mtext>initial</mml:mtext></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> was calculated based on <inline-formula><mml:math id="M177" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th age (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M178" display="inline"><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>), i.e.
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M179" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">234</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>U<inline-formula><mml:math id="M180" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mtext>initial</mml:mtext></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">234</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>U<inline-formula><mml:math id="M181" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mtext>measured</mml:mtext></mml:msub><mml:mo>×</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mi>e</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">λ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">234</mml:mn><mml:mo>×</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. Ages are reported as before present, i.e. before the year
CE 1950. The error is 2<inline-formula><mml:math id="M182" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><?xmltex \begin{scaleboxenv}{.9}[.9]?><oasis:tgroup cols="9">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="5" colname="col5" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="6" colname="col6" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="7" colname="col7" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="8" colname="col8" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="9" colname="col9" align="right"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Sample</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M183" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">238</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>U <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M184" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">232</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M185" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th/<inline-formula><mml:math id="M186" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">232</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M187" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">234</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>U</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M188" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th/<inline-formula><mml:math id="M189" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">238</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>U</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M190" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th age (ka) <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M191" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">234</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>U<inline-formula><mml:math id="M192" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mtext>initial</mml:mtext></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M193" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th age (ka) <?xmltex \hack{\hfill\break}?></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">(ppb)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">(ppt)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">(atomic <inline-formula><mml:math id="M194" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M195" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">6</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">(measured)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">(activity)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">(uncorr.)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">(corr.)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">(corr.)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">FOS12-A10</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1883 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M196" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">18 024 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M197" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 361</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">208 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M198" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 4</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">121.9 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M199" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1.3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.1208 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M200" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.0006</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">12.40 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M201" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.07</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">126 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M202" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">12.08 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M203" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.19</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><italic>FOS12-A12</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><italic>1139</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M204" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>2</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><italic>53 468</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M205" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>1074</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><italic>46</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M206" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>1</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><italic>124.8</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M207" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>2.2</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><italic>0.1303</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M208" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>0.0007</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"><italic>13.40</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M209" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>0.08</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"><italic>129</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M210" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>2</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><italic>12.11</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M211" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>0.86</italic></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><italic>FOS12-A3a</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><italic>1863</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M212" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>3</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><italic>41 219</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M213" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>828</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><italic>93</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M214" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>2</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><italic>125.0</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M215" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>2.1</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><italic>0.1252</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M216" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>0.0006</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"><italic>12.83</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M217" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>0.07</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"><italic>129</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M218" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>2</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><italic>12.20</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M219" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>0.41</italic></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">FOS12-A3b</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1810 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M220" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">20 310 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M221" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 408</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">185 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M222" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 4</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">123.0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M223" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2.1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.1261 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M224" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.0008</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">12.96 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M225" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.09</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">128 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M226" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">12.60 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M227" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.22</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">FOS12-A1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1480 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M228" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 9</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">934 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M229" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 21</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">3113 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M230" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 70</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">121.4 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M231" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2.9</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.1191 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M232" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.0009</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">12.22 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M233" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.10</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">126 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M234" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">12.13 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M235" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.10</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">FOS12-A2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1893 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M236" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 19</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">29 808 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M237" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 666</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">128 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M238" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">120.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M239" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 4.4</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.1225 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M240" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.0014</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">12.60 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M241" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.16</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">125 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M242" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">12.13 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M243" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.33</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">FOS12-A13</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1466 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M244" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">15 563 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M245" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 312</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">192 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M246" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 4</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">122.6 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M247" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1.5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.1235 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M248" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.0003</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">12.68 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M249" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.03</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">127 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M250" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">12.34 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M251" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.20</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">FOS12-B4</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1492 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M252" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">24 543 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M253" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 493</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">127 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M254" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">124.0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M255" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2.1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.1268 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M256" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.0004</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">13.02 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M257" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.05</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">128 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M258" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">12.53 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M259" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.31</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><italic>FOS12-B5</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><italic>1790</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M260" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>4</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><italic>77 634</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M261" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>1564</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><italic>53</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M262" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>1</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><italic>121.8</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M263" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>2.5</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><italic>0.1382</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M264" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>0.0006</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"><italic>14.30</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M265" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>0.08</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"><italic>126</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M266" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>3</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><italic>13.11</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M267" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>0.80</italic></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">FOS12-B6</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1978 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M268" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">6288 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M269" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 126</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">622 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M270" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 13</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">122.4 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M271" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1.4</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.1199 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M272" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.0003</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">12.30 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M273" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.04</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">127 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M274" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">12.15 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M275" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.07</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">FOS12-B10</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">2095 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M276" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 4</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">19 878 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M277" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 339</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">211 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M278" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 4</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">121.1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M279" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2.1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.1213 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M280" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.0006</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">12.47 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M281" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.07</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">125 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M282" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">12.15 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M283" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.19</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">FOS12-C</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1979 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M284" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 4</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">25 984 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M285" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 522</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">156 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M286" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">123.1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M287" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2.0</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.1243 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M288" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.0006</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">12.76 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M289" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.06</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">127 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M290" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">12.35 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M291" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.25</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">FOS12-C2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">2050 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M292" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">21 760 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M293" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 436</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">192 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M294" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 4</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">122.9 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M295" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1.5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.1235 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M296" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.0003</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">12.68 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M297" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.03</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">127 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M298" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">12.33 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M299" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.20</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">FOS12-D</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1782 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M300" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">6916 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M301" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 139</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">514 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M302" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 10</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">122.8 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M303" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1.3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.1210 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M304" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.0003</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">12.41 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M305" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.04</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">127 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M306" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">12.24 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M307" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.08</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><italic>FOS12-D3</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><italic>1458</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M308" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>3</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><italic>47 447</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M309" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>953</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><italic>61</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M310" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>1</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><italic>121.9</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M311" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>2.0</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><italic>0.1212</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M312" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>0.0005</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"><italic>12.44</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M313" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>0.06</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"><italic>126</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M314" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>2</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><italic>11.53</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M315" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <italic>0.60</italic></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">FOS12-D9</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">2189 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M316" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">3975 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M317" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 80</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">1087 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M318" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 22</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">121.4 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M319" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1.4</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.1197 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M320" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.0003</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">12.29 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M321" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.03</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">126 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M322" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">12.17 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M323" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.05</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">FOS12-D10</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1760 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M324" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">8134 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M325" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 160</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">430 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M326" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 9</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">123.4 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M327" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1.6</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.1206 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M328" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.0005</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">12.36 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M329" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.06</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">128 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M330" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">12.17 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M331" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.10</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">FOS12-E</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">826 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M332" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">6841 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M333" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 137</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">242 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M334" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">121.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M335" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1.3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.1217 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M336" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.0007</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">12.50 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M337" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.08</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">126 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M338" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">12.22 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M339" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.17</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">FOS12-E2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">2026 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M340" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">34 463 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M341" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 693</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">121 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M342" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">121.2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M343" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1.9</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.1244 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M344" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.0005</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">12.80 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M345" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.06</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">126 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M346" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">12.29 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M347" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.32</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Cioc1-1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">47 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M348" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">396 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M349" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 8</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">34 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M350" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">177.4 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M351" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3.3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.0171 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M352" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.0024</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">1.59 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M353" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.23</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">178 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M354" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">1.32 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M355" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.27</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Cioc1-2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">47 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M356" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">293 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M357" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 6</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">175 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M358" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">200.1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M359" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2.8</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.0654 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M360" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.0012</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">6.10 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M361" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.11</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">203 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M362" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">5.88 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M363" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.15</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Cioc1-3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">46 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M364" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">80 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M365" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">1570 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M366" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 36</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">273.1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M367" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2.3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.1653 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M368" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.0014</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">15.09 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M369" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.14</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">285 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M370" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">14.98 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M371" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.14</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup><?xmltex \end{scaleboxenv}?></oasis:table></table-wrap>

      <p id="d1e4708">All CCC ages fall within the YD (as defined by Rasmussen et al., 2014),
whereby individual ages show a spread from 12.61 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M372" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.22 to 12.08 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M373" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.19 ka. Although most of the ages overlap within their 2<inline-formula><mml:math id="M374" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> errors, some <inline-formula><mml:math id="M375" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th ages suggest that CCC formation commenced at the
beginning of the YD (i.e. 12.61 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M376" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.22 ka). On the other hand, the
error-weighted mean of all ages is 12.19 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M377" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.06 ka, and 90 %
percent of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M378" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th dates cluster at <inline-formula><mml:math id="M379" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 12.2 ka. There is
no systematic age difference between samples from individual heaps or
between different CCC morphologies.</p>
      <p id="d1e4773">In contrast to CCC, the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M380" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">238</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>U concentration of stalagmite Cioc1 is much
lower (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M381" display="inline"><mml:mo lspace="0mm">∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.5 ppm).  The resulting <inline-formula><mml:math id="M382" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th ages demonstrate
that stalagmite growth commenced during the late glacial at 14.98 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M383" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.14 ka (Table 2). Petrographic analysis provides strong evidence for a
growth interruption after which calcite deposition restarted in the
mid-Holocene at 5.88 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M384" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.15 ka and continued until 1.32 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M385" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.27 ka.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS4">
  <label>4.4</label><title>Thermal modelling</title>
      <p id="d1e4831">We performed a series of model runs covering possible climate scenarios for
the YD (Table 1) to explore the relationship between atmospheric temperature
changes and the temperature 50 m below the surface at this high-elevation
site. We define the thermal boundary conditions for CCC formation as <inline-formula><mml:math id="M386" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> to
0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M387" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C (the “CCC window” – see the Discussion section) whereby the likelihood of
CCC formation is highest between <inline-formula><mml:math id="M388" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and 0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M389" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C. Palaeotemperature
estimates used in these computations are based on regional annual and summer
air temperature reconstructions.</p>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS4.SSS1">
  <label>4.4.1</label><?xmltex \opttitle{Scenario 1 -- Aller{\o}d interstadial}?><title>Scenario 1 – Allerød interstadial</title>
      <p id="d1e4880">In this scenario we simulated an interstadial similar to the 1000-year-long
Allerød preceding the YD. This experiment shows that after 1000 years a
temperature of 0.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M390" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C is reached at 50 m of depth (Supplement Fig. S2).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS4.SSS2">
  <label>4.4.2</label><title>Scenario 2 – stadial conditions during the early YD</title>
      <p id="d1e4900">In the next five experiments (scenarios 2a–2e) we explored the timing of
perennial cave ice development and tested whether water pockets in cave ice
could have experienced slow freezing during an early YD characterised by
cold stadial conditions.</p>
      <p id="d1e4903">The results for scenario 2a show that the atmospheric cooling rapidly
propagates into the subsurface, resulting in the development of permafrost
down to 50 m of depth in less than 50 years (Fig. 3a, Supplement Fig. S3a) in the case
of a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M391" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">7</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M392" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C cooling compared to the preceding Allerød
interstadial.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F3"><?xmltex \currentcnt{3}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 3</label><caption><p id="d1e4927">Thermal models 2a to 2e simulating the development and deepening
of the permafrost during the early YD. Modelling results depict the ground
temperature at 50 m of depth at the depth of the CCC site in Cioccherloch.
These models use the temperature profile of scenario 1 as an initial condition.
Model 2a <bold>(a)</bold> is forced with a MAAT of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M393" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">6.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M394" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C. Models 2b <bold>(b)</bold> and
2c <bold>(c)</bold> use a MAAT of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M395" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M396" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C, and the latter simulates the impact
of winter snow cover, resulting in the attenuation of the winter cold by
5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M397" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C (i.e. snow <inline-formula><mml:math id="M398" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M399" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C). Scenarios 2d <bold>(d)</bold>
and 2e <bold>(e)</bold> model the changes in the thermal profile at the CCC site using a
MAAT of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M400" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M401" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C. Scenario 2e considers the presence of a winter
snow pack, resulting in snow <inline-formula><mml:math id="M402" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of 4.7 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M403" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C. The green
horizontal bar marks the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M404" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> to 0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M405" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C “window” of possible CCC
formation for the depth range of the CCC site in this cave.</p></caption>
            <?xmltex \igopts{width=184.942913pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/775/2021/cp-17-775-2021-f03.png"/>

          </fig>

      <p id="d1e5082">Modelling results (scenario 2b) show that the cave 50 m below the surface
cools to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M406" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M407" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C in about 100 years in the case of an extremely dry YD
characterised by a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M408" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M409" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C drop in MAAT compared to the Allerød
interstadial (Fig. 3b, Supplement Fig. S3b). The presence of a snowpack (scenario
2c) delays this subsurface cooling and results in temperatures at the CCC
site between 0.5 and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M410" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M411" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C within 150 years from the start of the
atmospheric cooling (Fig. 3c, Supplement Fig. S3c).</p>
      <p id="d1e5143">The last two early YD experiments (scenarios 2d and 2e) consider even milder
winters (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M412" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>MAAT<inline-formula><mml:math id="M413" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mtext>Allerød-early YD</mml:mtext></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M414" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C, Table 1). With no winter snow cover (scenario 2d) the
temperature at the CCC site reaches <inline-formula><mml:math id="M415" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M416" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C after <inline-formula><mml:math id="M417" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 60 years and drops below <inline-formula><mml:math id="M418" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M419" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C (i.e. it leaves the CCC window)
after 100 years (Fig. 3d, Supplement Fig. S3d). On the other<?pagebreak page781?> hand, if snow
insolates the ground in winter and buffers the winter cold by 4.7 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M420" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C (i.e. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M421" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of 4.7 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M422" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C; Table 1), temperatures
at 50 m of depth stay above <inline-formula><mml:math id="M423" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.8</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M424" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C for an extended period of time
(Fig. 3e, Supplement Fig. S3e).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS4.SSS3">
  <label>4.4.3</label><title>Scenario 3 – stadial conditions during the late YD</title>
      <p id="d1e5280">In the first late YD experiment (scenario 3a) we examined how permafrost
conditions would change with increasing aridity in autumn and early winter
compared to the early YD (scenario 2e), resulting in a reduction in winter
snow cover. As the insulating effect of the winter snowpack is reduced, the
depth zone of the CCC site experiences rapid cooling and approaches
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M425" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.8</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M426" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C after 100 years, leading to permafrost development,
which is inconsistent with stable conditions near 0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M427" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C required for CCC
formation (Fig. 4a, Supplement Fig. S4a).</p>
      <p id="d1e5311">The results for scenario 3b demonstrate that even though winters become
slightly less cold, the subsurface at 50 m of depth nevertheless cools from
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M428" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M429" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M430" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C due to the lack of winter snow
cover. This scenario is not compatible with CCC formation as it leads to
permafrost aggradation (Fig. 4b, Supplement Fig. S4b). In contrast, even the
presence of moderate snow cover (scenario 3c) would allow the subsurface
at 50 m of depth to slowly warm to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M431" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M432" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C after 75 years of atmospheric warming (Fig. 4c, Supplement Fig. S4c), creating favourable
conditions for slow freezing of liquid water pockets in the cave ice
introduced by dripping water.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F4"><?xmltex \currentcnt{4}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 4</label><caption><p id="d1e5364">Thermal model runs simulating a change in YD climate starting at
12.24 ka (mid-YD transition). Results show the ground temperature at 50 m of depth (grey rectangles) at the depth of the CCC site in Cioccherloch. Model
3a <bold>(a)</bold> simulates the subsurface thermal conditions for a MAAT identical to
scenario 2e (i.e. MAAT <inline-formula><mml:math id="M433" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.0</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M434" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C), but the autumns and winters became
drier, resulting in a reduction of the winter snow cover (snow <inline-formula><mml:math id="M435" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.0</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M436" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C). Scenarios 3b <bold>(b)</bold> and 3c <bold>(c)</bold> simulate the impact of a
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M437" display="inline"><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M438" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C rise in MAAT with respect to scenario 2c (i.e. MAAT
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M439" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M440" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C), and the 3c model also includes thin winter snow cover
(snow <inline-formula><mml:math id="M441" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M442" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C). The green horizontal bar marks the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M443" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
to 0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M444" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C “window” of possible CCC formation at the depth of the
CCC site in Cioccherloch.</p></caption>
            <?xmltex \igopts{width=142.26378pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/775/2021/cp-17-775-2021-f04.png"/>

          </fig>

</sec>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S5">
  <label>5</label><title>Discussion</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S5.SS1">
  <label>5.1</label><?xmltex \opttitle{Conditions close to 0\,{${}^{{\circ}}$}C in the shallow subsurface}?><title>Conditions close to 0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M445" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C in the shallow subsurface</title>
      <p id="d1e5531">CCCs form in slowly freezing water pockets enclosed in cave ice when the cave
interior temperature is slightly below 0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M446" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C
(e.g. Žák et al., 2018). Although
the deposition of CCCs in many cases marks climate transitions (e.g.
Luetscher
et al., 2013; Richter and Riechelmann, 2012; Spötl and Cheng, 2014; Spötl et al., 2021;
Žák et al., 2012), the large size of some CCCs (up to 50 mm in caves
elsewhere; unpublished data from our group) and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M447" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th ages from their
central and rim areas (unpublished data from our group) argue for very
stable cave microclimate conditions for at least several years.</p>
      <?pagebreak page782?><p id="d1e5552">CCCs (Table 2) provide unequivocal evidence that perennial ice was present in
the lower descending gallery of Cioccherloch during the first part of the YD
(Fig. 5). To evaluate the likelihood of CCC formation, the kernel density of
all <inline-formula><mml:math id="M448" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th ages was calculated. As the majority of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M449" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th ages
overlap within their 2<inline-formula><mml:math id="M450" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> errors, it is not possible to determine
whether CCC formation took place semi-continuously for 400–600 years or if
they represent two different generations clustering at
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M451" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 12.6 and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M452" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 12.2 ka (Fig. 5). Overall, CCCs in Cioccherloch record negative interior cave air
temperatures very close to 0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M453" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C from <inline-formula><mml:math id="M454" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 12.6 to
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M455" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 12.2 ka, initiating progressive freezing of meltwater
pockets in perennial ice which were created by drip water.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F5"><?xmltex \currentcnt{5}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 5</label><caption><p id="d1e5620"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M456" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th ages of CCCs with their 2<inline-formula><mml:math id="M457" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> uncertainties from
Cioccherloch (blue bars) and CCC formation “windows” as suggested by model
scenarios for the early and late YD. Peaks of kernel density calculated from
the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M458" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th ages show the likelihood of CCC formation (blue shaded area).
The green bars mark the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M459" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> to 0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M460" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C window of possible CCC
formation at the depth of the CCC site. The blue dashed vertical lines mark
the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M461" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M462" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C isotherm at 50 m of depth (2c–2e). The brown vertical
line and age with the 2<inline-formula><mml:math id="M463" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> error bar mark the timing of the mid-YD
transition at Meerfelder Maar (Lane et al., 2013).</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/775/2021/cp-17-775-2021-f05.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e5700">The air temperature in the homothermic zone of caves reflects the MAAT of
the outside atmosphere. Ice-bearing caves, however, commonly represent an
exception to this rule (e.g. Luetscher and Jeannin, 2004;
Perşoiu, 2018, and references therein).
Due to its descending geometry lacking a lower entrance, Cioccherloch acts
as a cold trap, as evidenced by the snow and ice cone at the base of its
entrance shaft. The resulting negative thermal anomaly, however, is mostly
restricted to the upper cave level close to this snow cone, and cave air
temperature data show that this influence gets attenuated towards the inner
parts of the cave. Today, the descending gallery with the CCC occurrences
experiences a small intra-annual temperature variation (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M464" display="inline"><mml:mo lspace="0mm">∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M465" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C), and the MAAT in this gallery matches the ambient MAAT
(2.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M466" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C). If the CCC-bearing chamber had been ventilated in the
past at times when the outside air temperature was lower than the cave air
temperature (i.e. during the winter season), the fine crystalline variety of
CCCs would have formed by rather rapid freezing of water films
(e.g. Žák et
al., 2008) instead of coarse crystalline CCCs that require stable thermal
conditions. Today this gallery is connected to the cave's
upper level via a narrow squeeze, but prior to cave exploration in the 1980s
and 1990s, this squeeze was closed by rubble. Therefore, we presume that
this descending gallery was essentially thermally decoupled from the upper
cave level in the past and hence unaffected by the negative thermal anomaly,
especially when the snow and ice cover was larger than today and buried the
entrance of the squeeze. As a result, CCCs in the lower gallery record
changes in the thermal state of the subsurface as a consequence of
atmospheric temperature changes. Given the lack of ventilated shafts
connecting this gallery to the<?pagebreak page783?> surface, we argue that heat exchange between
the latter and the gallery occurred primarily via conduction. Additional
heat transfer occurred via drip water, and minor air advection via small
fissures in the ceiling cannot be ruled out. Seepage water leading to
meltwater pockets in the cave ice, however, is likely thermally equilibrated
with the ca. 50 m thick rock above the cave and given its very low discharge
carries comparably little heat from the surface. Advective processes are
difficult to quantify for any time in the past, and no attempts were made to
include them in the thermal model. Qualitatively, both processes would
increase the rate of temperature change in this gallery as a response to
atmospheric change above the cave. By considering heat conduction only, our
simulations yield quantitative constraints on the maximum duration of
temperature changes propagated into the shallow subsurface.</p>
      <p id="d1e5728">The formation of CCCs near the lower end of the descending gallery requires
the 0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M467" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C isotherm to be located about 50 m below the ground surface
at this high-elevation site in the Dolomites during the YD. On the other
hand, stalagmite Cioc1 provides strong evidence that the air temperature in
this gallery was constantly above 0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M468" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C during the
Bølling–Allerød interstadial. The <inline-formula><mml:math id="M469" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">13</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>C values of Cioc1
decrease from <inline-formula><mml:math id="M470" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ‰ to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M471" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">6.6</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ‰, suggesting gradual soil
development above the cave (unpublished data by the authors). In the early
YD, atmospheric cooling led to the aggradation of cave ice. During the mild
YD summers (from <inline-formula><mml:math id="M472" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 12.6 to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M473" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 12.2 ka) drip water sourced from snowmelt and/or rain created meltwater
pools on the ice that subsequently underwent slow freezing at cave air
temperatures <inline-formula><mml:math id="M474" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2–3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M475" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C (i.e. 2.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M476" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M477" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C) lower than today.</p>
      <p id="d1e5827">CCC deposition in caves has traditionally been attributed to near-surface
permafrost degradation in response to atmospheric warming
(e.g. Žák et al., 2018, and
references therein). In this case, however, stalagmite growth (Cioc1) in
Cioccherloch indicates cave air temperatures above 0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M478" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C and the
presence of dripping water in the cave at the Bølling–Allerød
interstadial. Thus, CCC formation starting at 12.6 ka cannot represent a
delayed response to the Bølling–Allerød interstadial warming. Instead
our data suggest that CCCs in Cioccherloch formed during a cold climate
associated with permafrost aggradation. Therefore, we hypothesise that
analogous to climate warmings possible CCC windows opened during the
transition into stadials and remained open for a variably long period of
time depending on the local thermal conditions in the subsurface.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S5.SS2">
  <label>5.2</label><title>Magnitude of YD cooling</title>
      <p id="d1e5847">Our thermal model provides quantitative constraints on how the cave air
temperature evolved in response to different climate conditions. The model
uses two input parameters: MAAT and the insulating effect of winter
snowpack. A recent study by Schenk et al. (2018) suggests
that YD summers remained relatively warm, with temperature decreases of
4.3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M479" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C in NW Europe and 0.3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M480" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C in E Europe relative to
the preceding Bølling interstadial. We therefore kept the July
temperatures 3 to 4 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M481" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C lower than modern values
(Table 1) and attributed most of the MAAT change to winter cooling. As the
buffering effect of the snow is set to its maximum value to counteract the
winter chill, this approach allows the reconstruction of the possible
maximum amplitude of MAAT (winter) cooling of the surface.</p>
      <?pagebreak page784?><p id="d1e5877">CCCs dated to the first and second half of the YD indicate conditions very
close to 0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M482" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C for an extended period of time during this stadial.
Our thermal model shows that CCC formation starting at 12.6 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M483" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.2 ka at this sensitive mountain site requires a moderate atmospheric cooling
at the Allerød–YD transition of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M484" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M485" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5.0</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M486" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C relative to
today (Fig. 5). Without winter snow cover (scenarios 2b and 2d) the CCC
window would open too early and close quickly afterwards, inconsistent
with the CCC ages (Fig. 5). Scenarios 2c and 2e show that if the YD climate
was characterised by a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M487" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5.0</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M488" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M489" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C drop in MAAT relative to
today (i.e. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M490" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>MAAT<inline-formula><mml:math id="M491" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mtext>Allerød-YD</mml:mtext></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3.0</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> to
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M492" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M493" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C), stable snow cover during winter is needed to prevent
the cave from freezing, effectively shielding the ground from the cold
stadial winters (see Zhang, 2005). Scenario 2e includes
winter snow cover that provides the best fit with the CCC data, giving rise
to a 400-year-long period characterised by a very slow cooling of the
subsurface with cave air temperatures near <inline-formula><mml:math id="M494" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.8</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M495" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C.</p>
      <p id="d1e6017">Our data do not support the notion of a very cold YD in the Alps (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M496" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>MAAT<inline-formula><mml:math id="M497" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mtext>Allerød-YD</mml:mtext></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">7</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M498" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">8</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M499" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C; scenario 2a) as
suggested by speleothem data from low-lying caves in northern Switzerland
(Affolter
et al., 2019; Ghadiri et al., 2018). Such a drastic lowering of the MAAT
would freeze Cioccherloch rapidly, even if a thin winter snowpack was
present, and would result in rather abrupt development and deepening of
permafrost, preventing CCC formation (Fig. 3). Such a stark cooling would in
fact lead to climate conditions similar to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM),
for which noble gas data from groundwater studies around the Alps suggest
7–10 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M500" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C lower temperature compared to the Holocene (e.g.
Šafanda
and Rajver, 2001; Stute and Deák, 1989; Varsányi et al., 2011) and which
would inevitably lead to the build-up of glaciers at this elevation in the
Dolomites.</p>
      <p id="d1e6071">Our data, however, are consistent with observations from rock glaciers
(Frauenfelder et al., 2001) and lake sediments in the Swiss
Alps (von Grafenstein et al., 2000) suggesting a
moderate cooling at the Allerød–YD transition. A fluid-inclusion-based
palaeotemperature reconstruction using stalagmites from Bärenhöhle
in western Austria also indicates a maximum temperature drop of about
5.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M501" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C, supporting our interpretation (Luetscher et
al., 2016).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S5.SS3">
  <label>5.3</label><title>Increased seasonality in the early YD</title>
      <p id="d1e6091">CCCs provide a uniquely robust control on cave air temperatures and
consequently on the MAAT above the cave. Our data argue for a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M502" display="inline"><mml:mo>≤</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M503" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C drop in MAAT at the Allerød–YD transition but provide no
direct information on the seasonal cycle of ambient atmospheric
temperatures. A recent multi-proxy model comparison by Schenk et al. (2018)
suggests persistently warm summers during the YD with a median regional
cooling of 3 and 0.3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M504" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C over NW and E Europe,
respectively, compared to Bølling–Allerød summers. These authors also
argue that previous studies using chironomids overestimated the YD cooling
signal. A similar amplitude of change is suggested for July air temperatures
by lake records from the western Alps. Pollen and Cladocera-inferred
temperature reconstructions indicate a summer cooling of 2–4 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M505" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C at
the Allerød–YD transition at Gerzensee (Swiss Plateau;
e.g. Lotter et al., 2000), consistent with a
3.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M506" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C drop in July air temperatures reported from the Maloja Pass
(Fig. 6) in eastern Switzerland
(Ilyashuk
et al., 2009). We therefore consider 0.3 and 4 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M507" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C as
minimum and maximum estimates of YD summer cooling, respectively, relative
to the Bølling–Allerød. As our CCC data in conjunction with thermal
modelling constrain the drop in MAAT at the Allerød–YD transition to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M508" display="inline"><mml:mo>≤</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M509" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C, they allow us to calculate the maximum possible increase in
seasonality at the Allerød–YD transition. If we assume that YD summers
were only 0.3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M510" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C colder than in the Allerød by using the lowest
summer temperature change proposed by Schenk et al. (2018), we find that
early YD winters at 2270 m a.s.l. were no colder than <inline-formula><mml:math id="M511" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">13.7</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M512" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C
(mean January temperature). This argues for an enhanced seasonality in the
Dolomites, whereby the winter–summer temperature difference increased by up
to 5.4 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M513" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C at the Allerød–YD transition (i.e. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M514" display="inline"><mml:mo>≤</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 22.4 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M515" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C in the YD).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F6"><?xmltex \currentcnt{6}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 6</label><caption><p id="d1e6219">CCC ages from Cioccherloch <bold>(g)</bold> compared to YD proxy records in
Europe and Greenland plotted on their published chronology. <bold>(a)</bold> NGRIP
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M516" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">18</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>O data (Rasmussen et al., 2014) and <bold>(b)</bold> lacustrine benthic
ostracod <inline-formula><mml:math id="M517" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">18</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>O data from Ammersee (von Grafenstein et al.,
1999). YD palaeotemperature reconstructions are shown by <bold>(c)</bold>
chironomid-inferred July air temperatures from the Maloja Pass (Ilyashuk et
al., 2009) and by <bold>(d)</bold> MAAT inferred from fluid inclusion stable isotope data
on stalagmites and speleothem <inline-formula><mml:math id="M518" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">18</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>O data from Milandre Cave
(Affolter et al., 2019). CCC ages are compared to <bold>(e)</bold> speleothem <inline-formula><mml:math id="M519" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">18</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>O data from Hölloch Cave  (Li et al., 2021) and <bold>(f)</bold> the extent of central and southern
Alpine palaeoglaciers (Heiri et al., 2014b). The calculated kernel density of
all <inline-formula><mml:math id="M520" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th ages is shown by the blue shaded area <bold>(g)</bold>. Dark blue and
green refer to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M521" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th ages of CCCs from heap A and B, respectively <bold>(f)</bold>.
Data from heaps C, D and E are shown in light blue, orange and grey,
respectively <bold>(g)</bold>. The brown vertical line marks the mid-YD transition
recorded at Meerfelder Maar (Lane et al., 2013).</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/775/2021/cp-17-775-2021-f06.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e6322">Thermal modelling shows that a winter snowpack effectively shielding
the subsurface during the cold winters is needed to account for CCC
formation commencing at 12.6 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M522" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.2 ka at Cioccherloch. Studies in
modern permafrost areas suggest that stable winter snow cover of only
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M523" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 35 cm results in a positive shift (i.e. snow <inline-formula><mml:math id="M524" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) of
up to 5.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M525" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C in the mean annual ground surface temperature
(Zhang, 2005). Changes in the timing, duration, thickness and
density of the snow cover may promote either the development or the
degradation of permafrost (Zhang, 2005). While a snowpack in
the cold season leads to a positive ground temperature anomaly, summer
snow cover insulates the ground from warm air and hence facilitates the
development of permafrost. In a study of Arctic permafrost,
Park et al. (2014) found that the thermal state of the
underlying soil is more affected by early winter than peak winter snowfall.
Therefore, we argue for a moderately humid early YD with snowfall during
fall and early winter.</p>
      <p id="d1e6359">Proxy data show a heterogeneous picture with respect to precipitation in the
Alps during the YD
(Belli
et al., 2017; Kerschner et al., 2016; Kerschner and Ivy-Ochs, 2008). The
distribution of rock glaciers in the eastern Swiss Alps suggests a 30 %–40 %
reduction in precipitation compared to today (Frauenfelder et
al., 2001). Palaeoglacier records for the central Alps point to a similar
reduction, mostly due to a reduction in winter precipitation. The few
palaeoglacier records in the southern Alps suggest that precipitation sums were
similar to modern-day values, but winter precipitation was probably reduced
compared to the modern day, leading to enhanced seasonal contrasts
(Kerschner et al., 2016). A recent study compiling data from
122 palaeoglaciers shows that the southerly displacement of the polar
frontal jet stream led to cold air outbreaks and increased cyclogenesis over
the Mediterranean and negative precipitation anomalies over the Alps
compared to the modern day (Rea et al., 2020). The precipitation
pattern during the early YD closely resembled the modern Scandinavian
circulation patterns, resulting in an autumn to early winter (September to
November) and midwinter (December to February) precipitation increase over
the Mediterranean (Rea et al., 2020). This is consistent<?pagebreak page785?> with
our findings, which argue that YD autumns and early winters remained
relatively snow-rich in the southern Alps, although the amount of annual
precipitation may have been lower than today.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S5.SS4">
  <label>5.4</label><title>Climate change during the mid-YD</title>
      <p id="d1e6370">High-resolution speleothem
(Baldini
et al., 2015; Bartolomé et al., 2015; Rossi et al., 2018) and lake
records (Bakke et al.,
2009; Brauer et al., 2008; Lane et al., 2013) from W and N Europe suggest a
time-transgressive change in atmospheric circulation during the YD
associated with a warming of parts of Europe due to a retreat of winter sea
ice and a northward migration of the polar front
(e.g.
Baldini et al., 2015; Bartolomé et al., 2015). At Meerfelder Maar,
Germany, this so-called mid-YD transition occurred at 12.24 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M526" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.04 ka (Lane et al., 2013). This timing is
strikingly similar to the error-weighted mean of the CCC dates from
Cioccherloch (12.19 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M527" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.06 ka), suggesting that the main phase of
CCC formation at this site may have been related to supra-regional climate
change. Our thermal simulations provide important constraints on the type
and magnitude of climate change during the mid-YD transition at this
high-Alpine site and suggest a slight warming by up to 1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M528" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C (MAAT),
with a slight reduction in precipitation.</p>
      <p id="d1e6396">A change from moderately snow-rich to snow-poor autumns and early winters
from the early to the late YD combined with a small atmospheric warming
(scenario 3c) is consistent with the main advance of Alpine ice glaciers
(Fig. 6) during the first few centuries of the YD
(Baroni
et al., 2017; Heiri et al., 2014b; Ivy-Ochs et al., 2009), followed by a
glacier reduction and the parallel increase in rock glacier activity
(Ivy-Ochs
et al., 2009; Kerschner and Ivy-Ochs, 2008; Sailer and Kerschner, 1999).</p>
      <p id="d1e6399">Benthic ostracod <inline-formula><mml:math id="M529" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">18</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>O records from Ammersee
(von Grafenstein et al., 1999) and
Mondsee  (Lauterbach et al., 2011) on the
northern fringe of the Alps show a gradual increase of ca.
1 ‰ across the YD (Fig. 6). This slight increase is
compatible with our interpretation of a small decrease in autumn
precipitation in the northern Alpine catchment areas of these lakes in the
second half of the YD coupled with a small (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M530" display="inline"><mml:mo lspace="0mm">≤</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M531" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C) warming.
High-resolution <inline-formula><mml:math id="M532" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">18</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>O speleothem records from Hölloch Cave
west of the Ammersee catchment (Li et al., 2021) and from
Milandre Cave in the Swiss Jura Mountains (Affolter
et al., 2019) exhibit a gradual increase in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M533" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">18</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>O across the YD
similar to the northern Alpine lake records (Fig. 6). While our data and
those from palaeoglaciers and lake sediments are consistent with a slight
warming at the mid-YD transition, they argue for a reduction in fall and
winter precipitation. This suggests that the popular model of a south–north
migration of the polar front and a concomitant increase in westerly-driven
precipitation (e.g. Lane et al., 2013) is
too simplistic, at least for the greater Alpine realm, underscoring the need
for regionally resolved palaeoclimate models. In fact, even at the key<?pagebreak page786?> site
of Meerfelder Maar, the proposed increase in (winter) precipitation is
poorly captured by most proxy data except for the abundance of Ti, which is
attributed to spring snowmelt (Lane et al.,
2013).</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S6" sec-type="conclusions">
  <label>6</label><title>Conclusions</title>
      <p id="d1e6460">This article presents the first record of CCCs in the Dolomites, which, in
contrast to many studies from central European caves, formed not during a
major climate warming but within a prominent stadial. These deposits
indicate sustained negative temperatures very close to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M534" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M535" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C between <inline-formula><mml:math id="M536" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 12.6 and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M537" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 12.2 ka
at about 50 m below the surface, initiating the slow freezing of
drip-water-induced meltwater pockets in perennial cave ice. Combined with a
thermal model the high-elevation setting of this cave suggests a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M538" display="inline"><mml:mo>≤</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M539" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C drop in MAAT compared to today, incompatible with extreme
winter cooling during the YD. CCC formation during the early YD requires
autumn to early winter snowfall, forming sufficiently thick and stable snow
cover that insulates the ground from the winter cold. CCC formation during the
early YD coincided with the maximum YD extent of Alpine glaciers, consistent
with abundant snowfall in autumn and winter and with decreased summer
temperatures. Using a 0.3–4.0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M540" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C cooling for the short and mild
early YD summers as suggested by data–model comparison studies
(Heiri et al., 2014a; Schenk et al., 2018), mean
January air temperatures at this Alpine site were most likely not colder
than <inline-formula><mml:math id="M541" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">13.7</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M542" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C. Seasonal temperature differences between early YD
summers and winters were therefore up to 5.4 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M543" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C larger than during
the Allerød.</p>
      <p id="d1e6547">The <inline-formula><mml:math id="M544" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th data provide strong evidence that CCC formation at
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M545" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 12.2 ka occurred in response to climate change associated
with the mid-YD transition. CCC formation at this high-Alpine cave advocates
for a small atmospheric warming (i.e. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M546" display="inline"><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M547" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C in MAAT) and a
reduction in fall precipitation in the late YD. We propose a shift from
snow-rich early YD towards snow-poor late YD autumns and early winters,
which is consistent with the retreat of YD glaciers in the Alps and the
increase in rock glacier activity.</p>
      <p id="d1e6582">CCCs are a novel palaeoclimate archive allowing us to precisely constrain
permafrost thawing events in the past. Our study demonstrates that CCCs can
also provide quantitative constraints on palaeotemperature and seasonally
resolved precipitation changes.</p>
</sec>

      
      </body>
    <back><notes notes-type="codedataavailability"><title>Code and data availability</title>

      <p id="d1e6589">The code for the 1D heat-flow model is available online (<ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3982221" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5281/zenodo.3982221</ext-link>; Jarosch, 2020). Data are included in Tables 1 and 2 and
additionally given in Supplement Table S1.</p>
  </notes><?xmltex \hack{\newpage}?><app-group>
        <supplementary-material position="anchor"><p id="d1e6596">The supplement related to this article is available online at: <inline-supplementary-material xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-775-2021-supplement" xlink:title="pdf">https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-775-2021-supplement</inline-supplementary-material>.</p></supplementary-material>
        </app-group><notes notes-type="authorcontribution"><title>Author contributions</title>

      <p id="d1e6605">GK and CS designed the study, carried out fieldwork, and performed
petrographic analyses, stable isotope analyses and heat-flow modelling. GK carried
out uranium series dating supervised by HC. AHJ developed the heat-flow
model. GK wrote the paper with contributions from all co-authors.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="competinginterests"><title>Competing interests</title>

      <p id="d1e6611">The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.</p>
  </notes><ack><title>Acknowledgements</title><p id="d1e6617">Fieldwork and sampling were carried out in cooperation with the Naturpark
Fanes–Sennes–Prags under a permit issued by the Amt für
Naturparke, Abt. 28. Natur, Landschaft und Raumentwicklung of the Autonome
Provinz Bozen–Südtirol. <?xmltex \hack{\mbox\bgroup}?>Gottfried<?xmltex \hack{\egroup}?> Nagler, Andreas Treyer and
Charlotte Honiat provided support during fieldwork, and Jia Xue measured four
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M548" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">230</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>Th ages. The Hydrographische Amt of the Autonome Provinz Bozen–Südtirol kindly provided meteorological data. Paolo Mietto is
acknowledged for sharing information on the caves explored by the speleo
club Proteo, and Jeffrey S. Munroe, Yuri Dublyansky, Hanns Kerschner, Marc
Luetscher and Paul Töchterle are acknowledged for fruitful discussions that helped to
improve the paper. Paul Töchterle calculated kernel densities.
Stéphane Affolter is thanked for providing data from Milandre Cave. We
are also grateful to Bogdan P. Onac, Frederik Schenk and an anonymous
reviewer for their constructive comments.</p></ack><notes notes-type="financialsupport"><title>Financial support</title>

      <p id="d1e6635">This research has been supported by the Autonome Provinz Bozen–Südtirol (Amt für Wissenschaft und Forschung (grant no. 3/34)) and the Tiroler Wissenschaftsförderung (grant no. WF-F.16947/5-2019).</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="reviewstatement"><title>Review statement</title>

      <p id="d1e6642">This paper was edited by Mary Gagen and reviewed by Bogdan P. Onac and one anonymous referee.</p>
  </notes><ref-list>
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    <!--<article-title-html>Cryogenic cave carbonates in the Dolomites (northern Italy): insights into Younger Dryas cooling and seasonal precipitation</article-title-html>
<abstract-html><p>In the European Alps, the Younger Dryas (YD) was
characterised by the last major glacier advance, with equilibrium line
altitudes being  ∼ &thinsp;220 to 290&thinsp;m lower than during the Little
Ice Age, and also by the development of rock glaciers. Dating of these
geomorphic features, however, is associated with substantial uncertainties,
leading to considerable ambiguities regarding the internal structure of this
stadial, which is the most intensively studied one of the last glacial period. Here,
we provide robust physical evidence based on <sup>230</sup>Th-dated cryogenic cave
carbonates (CCCs) from a cave located at 2274&thinsp;m&thinsp;a.s.l. in the Dolomites of
northern Italy coupled with thermal modelling, indicating that early YD
winters were only moderately cold in this part of the Alps. More precisely,
we find that the mean annual air temperature dropped  ≤ &thinsp;3&thinsp;°C
at the Allerød–YD transition. Our data suggest that autumns and early
winters in the early part of the YD were relatively snow-rich, resulting in
stable winter snow cover. The latter insulated the shallow subsurface in
winter and allowed the cave interior to remain close to the freezing point
(0&thinsp;°C) year-round, promoting CCC formation. The main phase of CCC
precipitation at  ∼ &thinsp;12.2&thinsp;ka  coincided with the mid-YD
transition recorded in other archives across Europe. Based on thermal
modelling we propose that CCC formation at  ∼ &thinsp;12.2&thinsp;ka was
most likely associated with a slight warming of approximately
+1&thinsp;°C in conjunction with drier autumns and early winters in the
second half of the YD. These changes triggered CCC formation in this Alpine
cave as well as ice glacier retreat and rock glacier expansion across the
Alps.</p></abstract-html>
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