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  <front>
    <journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">CP</journal-id><journal-title-group>
    <journal-title>Climate of the Past</journal-title>
    <abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">CP</abbrev-journal-title><abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Clim. Past</abbrev-journal-title>
  </journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">1814-9332</issn><publisher>
    <publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
    <publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
  </publisher></journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/cp-16-679-2020</article-id><title-group><article-title>“Everything is scorched by the burning sun”: missionary perspectives and experiences of 19th- and early 20th-<?xmltex \hack{\break}?>century droughts in semi-arid central Namibia</article-title><alt-title>“Everything is scorched by the burning sun”</alt-title>
      </title-group><?xmltex \runningtitle{``Everything is scorched by the burning sun''}?><?xmltex \runningauthor{S. Grab and T. Zumthurm}?>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Grab</surname><given-names>Stefan</given-names></name>
          <email>stefan.grab@wits.ac.za</email>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff2 aff3">
          <name><surname>Zumthurm</surname><given-names>Tizian</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><institution>School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies,
University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><institution>Institute of the History of Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff3"><label>3</label><institution>Centre for African Studies, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland</institution>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <author-notes><corresp id="corr1">Stefan Grab (stefan.grab@wits.ac.za)</corresp></author-notes><pub-date><day>6</day><month>April</month><year>2020</year></pub-date>
      
      <volume>16</volume>
      <issue>2</issue>
      <fpage>679</fpage><lpage>697</lpage>
      <history>
        <date date-type="received"><day>29</day><month>July</month><year>2019</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-request"><day>24</day><month>September</month><year>2019</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-recd"><day>12</day><month>December</month><year>2019</year></date>
           <date date-type="accepted"><day>17</day><month>February</month><year>2020</year></date>
      </history>
      <permissions>
        <copyright-statement>Copyright: © 2020 Stefan Grab</copyright-statement>
        <copyright-year>2020</copyright-year>
      <license license-type="open-access"><license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/16/679/2020/cp-16-679-2020.html">This article is available from https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/16/679/2020/cp-16-679-2020.html</self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/16/679/2020/cp-16-679-2020.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/16/679/2020/cp-16-679-2020.pdf</self-uri>
      <abstract><title>Abstract</title>
    <p id="d1e104">Limited research has focussed on historical droughts during the
pre-instrumental weather-recording period in semi-arid to arid
human-inhabited environments. Here we describe the unique nature of droughts
over semi-arid central Namibia (southern Africa) between 1850 and 1920. More
particularly, our intention is to establish temporal shifts in influence and
impact that historical droughts had on society and the environment during
this period. This is achieved through scrutinizing documentary records
sourced from a variety of archives and libraries. The primary source of
information comes from missionary diaries, letters, and reports. These
missionaries were based at a variety of stations across the central Namibian
region and thus collectively provide insight into subregional (or site-specific) differences in hydrometeorological conditions and
drought impacts
and responses. The earliest instrumental rainfall records (1891–1913) from
several missionary stations or settlements are used to quantify
hydrometeorological conditions and compare them with documentary sources. The
work demonstrates strong subregional contrasts in drought conditions during
some given drought events and the dire implications of failed rain seasons,
the consequences of which lasted for many months to several years. The paper
argues that human experience and associated reporting of drought events
depends strongly on social, environmental, spatial, and societal
developmental situations and perspectives. To this end, the reported
experiences, impacts, and responses to drought over this 70-year period
portray both common and changeable attributes through time.</p>
  </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
<body>
      

<sec id="Ch1.S1" sec-type="intro">
  <label>1</label><title>Introduction</title>
      <p id="d1e116">Defining <italic>drought</italic> as a “concept” or as an “event” has received much discussion and
debate, which seems to be ongoing (e.g. Agnew and Chappell, 1999; Mishra and
Singh, 2010; Lloyd-Hughes, 2014; Parry et al., 2016). Brázdil et al. (2019) explore various types and characteristics of drought that are
relevant to both contemporary and historical contexts. These authors use the
definition by Wilhite and Pulwarty (2018), i.e. that drought is “a prolonged
period of negative deviation in water balance compared to the climatological
norm in a given area” (p. 1915). Although quantification of “climatological
norms” during pre-instrumental periods is challenging, if it is possible at all, we broadly follow Wilhite and Pulwarty's definition of drought for our
current work. Today most water-requiring situations for agriculture,
industry, and human consumption, etc., are to a large extent controlled through
engineered water transfer schemes, water storage, and water extraction.
Hence, contemporary meteorological droughts may not necessarily culminate in
agricultural or economic droughts owing to human-engineered interventions.
Conversely, societal expansion with associated increasing extraction demands
on river, lake, and subsurface water resources may induce ecological
droughts that would otherwise not have occurred under given
hydrometeorological conditions. The nature of recent and contemporary
droughts in their various contexts is thus becoming increasingly complex. For
this reason, there is value in exploring drought contexts through a window
of time when the natural human environment was rapidly transformed into<?pagebreak page680?> a
more human-engineered environment (through colonial conquests). For
instance, it may provide insight into how drought impacted past indigenous
populations and the environment in ways that may no longer apply today,
such as water-resource contexts during periods of nomadic lifestyles.</p>
      <p id="d1e122">Although drought is recognized as an environmental and climatic disaster
(Mishra and Singh, 2010) which impacts many sectors such as agriculture,
the economy, human social dynamics, human health, and ecosystems (Esfahanian et
al., 2016), its influence may be highly variable depending on its intensity
and duration within particular climatic regimes. “Drought” is differentiated
from “aridity”, where the former is considered a temporary phenomenon and the
latter a permanent one (Hisdal and Tallaksen, 2000). To this end, it may be
a challenge to differentiate between drought and aridity in
semi-arid regions with a strong bimodal rainfall distribution. Drought in
such already water-stressed regions during “normal climatic conditions” may
have far-reaching effects and implications that are not applicable in better-watered regions such as for instance central Europe or most parts
of North America. Central Namibia is a semi-arid to arid region
characterized by climatic extremes, seasonal aridity, and prolonged droughts
(Grab and Zumthurm, 2018) and thus offers an ideal spatial context to
explore attributes of historical droughts in an already dry environment.</p>
      <p id="d1e125">Most documentary-based southern African climate chronologies are focussed
only on the 19th century and end in 1899 or 1900 (e.g. Nash and
Endfield, 2002, 2008; Kelso and Vogel, 2007; Grab and Nash, 2010; Nash and
Grab, 2010; Nash et al., 2016, 2018), as is also the case for
central Namibia (Grab and Zumthurm, 2018). However, given that the colonial
period with relatively poor instrumental weather records extended into the
20th century in many parts of southern Africa, it is perhaps
unfortunate that most studies have not extended their chronologies into the
20th century. This is particularly so given that the early 20th
century experienced some severe droughts. While Grab and Zumthurm (2018)
considered climatological causes for 19th-century wet–dry periods over
central Namibia, the current paper focuses on the broader context of
historical droughts (consequences, perceptions, socio-economic,
socio-political, ecological) during the period 1850–1920. Extending
previous work to 1920 permits the placement of 19th-century droughts in
the context of those during the early 20th century in central Namibia.
Such a temporal extension is particularly valuable given rapid societal
change associated with technological and infrastructural advancements during
the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Here we investigate how
drought events are portrayed through textual sources written by early
European colonists (primarily missionaries) in what is today central
Namibia. Similar approaches have been taken to conceptualize climatic
variability and associated human responses in the adjoining semi-arid or arid
regions of the Kalahari (e.g. Nash and Endfield, 2002; Endfield and Nash,
2002) and Namaqualand (Kelso and Vogel, 2015). This then provides us with an
opportunity to establish similarities and differences in 19th-century drought-related circumstances and experiences through dryland regions of
southern Africa. More particularly, we aim to (1) outline the historic
context of meteorological or hydrological drought over central Namibia, (2) provide evidence for the (at times) relatively complex geographic nature
(spatial or temporal) of such droughts in the region, (3) summarize central
Namibian drought events between 1850 and 1920, and (4) establish the temporal
shifts in influence and impact that historical droughts had on society and
the environment during this period, as portrayed in written documents. At
this juncture, it is important to emphasize that the perspectives,
interpretations, and views presented are entirely those expressed by European
colonists and in particular from the spatial context of missionary
stations. Regrettably, there are few, if any, 19th-century documents
written from the perspectives of indigenous communities, who may have had
different views on drought in central Namibia. Nonetheless, documentary
sources permit, to some extent, sketching out some of the consequences and
responses to drought by the indigenous population living within relative
proximity to mission stations.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2">
  <label>2</label><title>Data and methods</title>
      <p id="d1e136">This paper is based on early documentary records from central Namibia but
also includes the earliest instrumental rainfall records from various
stations between 1891 and 1913.</p>
      <p id="d1e139">The documentary sources used are the same as those described in detail by Grab
and Zumthurm (2018) and particularly those associated with the Rheinische
Missionsgesellschaft (Mission Society; RMS). The Society released annual
reports describing conditions at each (or most) of its mission stations and
thus permits comparison across various subregions each year. Details were
less comprehensive in earlier years, but as more mission stations were
established over the course of time, reporting became increasingly
widespread and better informed (here we refer the reader to Fig. 3 in Grab
and Zumthurm, 2018). Missionary Carl Hugo Hahn's diaries (1850–1859) are
an invaluable source of information for the earliest years. The following
are primary sources of documentary records used, especially to understand
the context of droughts as experienced and portrayed through German
missionaries: ARRMS (Annual Reports of the Rheinische Missionsgesellschaft –
Archives of the Mission 21, Basel, Switzerland), BRM (Berichte der
Rheinischen Mission [Reports of the Rhenish Mission]), sourced from the
Archives of the Evangelical Lutheran Church, Windhoek, Namibia), and station
chronicles RMG (Rheinische Missionsgesellschaft – Rhenish Mission Society – sourced from the Archives of the United Evangelical Mission, VEM,
Wuppertal, Germany). Prominent missionaries who spent many years in Namibia
include Carl Hugo<?pagebreak page681?> Hahn (based at Otjikango), Heinrich Kleinschmidt (based
at Rehoboth), Franz Heinrich Vollmer (based at Rehoboth and later
Hoachanas), Johann Carl Böhm (based at Ameib and Rooibank), Johann Jakob
Irle (based at Okahandja and Otjosazu), Friedrich Wilhelm Viehe (various
stations), Johann Heidmann (based at Rehoboth), Philipp Diehl (based at
Okahandja and Hoachanas), and Peter Friedrich Bernsmann (based at
Otjimbingue and Omburo). For later years (1894/1895 onwards), annual reports,
written by district officials and resident magistrates, are exceptionally
valuable written sources of information as these summarize weather or climatic
conditions for various subregions each year and also report agriculture,
grassland or grazing conditions, disease, health, state of the environment, etc. – these were sourced from the National Archives of Namibia (NAN) in
Windhoek. A variety of other relevant documentary sources were accessed
through the Cape Archives Depot (CAD) at the Western Cape Provincial
Archives in Cape Town and Evangelisch-Lutherische Kirche in Namibia (ELKIN)
(Evangelical Lutheran Church in Namibia). Several detailed travelogues or diaries from individuals (e.g. Charles Andersson, Axel Eriksson, James Chapman,
Arno Henker) were also consulted and recorded at the various archives
mentioned above, including also the William Cullen Library archives at the
University of the Witwatersrand.</p>
      <p id="d1e142">We photographed and digitized the earliest available instrumental rainfall
records (monthly totals); these were sourced from the <italic>Mitteilungen aus den Deutschen Schutzgebieten</italic>, vol. XXXII. The
records cover the stations of Rehoboth (south), Windhoek (central highlands),
and Okahandja (northern highlands) for the period 1891–1913 (Fig. 1).
Additional station records for the drier western region (Otjimbingue) and
wetter eastern region (Gobabis) are also included, covering the years
1899–1913 and 1897–1913 respectively. These records provide valuable
insight into seasonal and inter-annual rainfall variability during the late
19th and early 20th centuries, as well as spatial differences in given
months, seasons, and years. These are then used to compare against the
documentary records and to quantify the severity and duration of drought or dry
conditions.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F1" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{1}?><label>Figure 1</label><caption><p id="d1e151">The map of southern Africa indicates the central Namibia study
region and other areas for which documentary-based 19th-century climate
reconstructions are available (please also see Fig. 4). The topographic
map of central Namibia indicates the location of primary mission stations
and their mean monthly rainfall during the period 1891–1913.</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=455.244094pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/16/679/2020/cp-16-679-2020-f01.jpg"/>

      </fig>

      <p id="d1e160">Grab and Zumthurm (2018) provide methodological details on how the
documentary sources were used to construct a 19th-century climate
chronology. This chronology was used in our current work, in consultation
with a re-evaluation of the documentary sources, to identify periods of
drought between 1850 and 1920. The instrumental rainfall records assist in not only identifying but also quantifying drought events since ca. 1891. The
documents were further scrutinized to establish attributes and consequences
of these droughts (climatic, socially responsive, socio-environmental), in
particular focusing on spatial and temporal contexts (Table 1). A primary
objective is to determine whether droughts may have had changing impacts on
society and the environment through time (i.e. 70 years of the study).
Although in less detail than what our study presents here, Kelso and Vogel
(2015) also examined the impacts of drought on livelihoods (resilience) in
Namaqualand (to the south of our current study area) through the 19th
century. More recently, Pribyl et al. (2019) examined the role of drought in
agrarian crisis and social change over south-eastern Africa during the
1890s.</p>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T1" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{1}?><label>Table 1</label><caption><p id="d1e166">Reported consequences, concomitant phenomena, and human responses to
droughts between 1850 and 1920 over central Namibia.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><?xmltex \begin{scaleboxenv}{0.87}[0.87]?><oasis:tgroup cols="12">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="5" colname="col5" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="6" colname="col6" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="7" colname="col7" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="8" colname="col8" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="9" colname="col9" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="10" colname="col10" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="11" colname="col11" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="12" colname="col12" align="center"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" namest="col2" nameend="col12">Droughts </oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1850–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">1858–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">1865–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">1877–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">1881–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">1887–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">1895–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">1900–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10">1907–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11">1910–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12">1912–</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Reported consequences</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1851</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">1860</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">1869</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">1879</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">1882</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">1890</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">1896</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">1903</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10">1908</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11">1911</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12">1913</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Hunger</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M6" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M7" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M8" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M9" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M10" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M11" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M12" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M13" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M14" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M15" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Starvation/human deaths</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M16" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M17" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M18" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M19" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M20" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M21" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Barren wasteland</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M22" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M23" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M24" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M25" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M26" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Grasslands degraded/no grass</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M27" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M28" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M29" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M30" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M31" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M32" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M33" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M34" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M35" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Trees/bushes bare</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M36" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M37" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Trees died</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M38" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M39" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Crop failures/no crop yields</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M40" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M41" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M42" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M43" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M44" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M45" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Lack of wild foods</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M46" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M47" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M48" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M49" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M50" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Livestock deaths<inline-formula><mml:math id="M51" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M52" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M53" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M54" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M55" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M56" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M57" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M58" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M59" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M60" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Wells dried up</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M61" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M62" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M63" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M64" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M65" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M66" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M67" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Springs stopped flowing</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M68" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M69" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M70" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M71" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M72" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Concomitant phenomena and human responses</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Population dispersal (missions vacated)<inline-formula><mml:math id="M73" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M74" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M75" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M76" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M77" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M78" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M79" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M80" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M81" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M82" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M83" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M84" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Low school attendance<inline-formula><mml:math id="M85" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M86" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M87" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M88" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M89" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M90" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Livestock thefts and social tensions<inline-formula><mml:math id="M91" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M92" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M93" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M94" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M95" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M96" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M97" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Farms vacated</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M98" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M99" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Closure of mission stations</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M100" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Begging for food at stations</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M101" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M102" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M103" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Prayers for rain</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M104" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M105" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M106" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M107" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Indigenous rain making<inline-formula><mml:math id="M108" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M109" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Food aid from the Cape</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M110" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Fundraising for food aid</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M111" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M112" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Colonial/governmental support</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M113" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M114" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Collapse of transport system</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M115" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M116" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M117" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M118" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Search for deeper wells</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M119" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M120" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Digging/construction of deeper wells</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M121" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M122" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M123" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M124" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M125" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Construction of water reservoirs</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M126" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M127" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"/>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup><?xmltex \end{scaleboxenv}?></oasis:table><table-wrap-foot><p id="d1e169"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> Livestock deaths during droughts between 1895 and 1913 are due to the combined impacts of the cattle plague (rinderpest) and drought. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M2" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> Population dispersal during some<?xmltex \hack{\break}?> drought events was also due to social tensions or war. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M3" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> Low school attendance was at times due to the combined factors of drought and social tensions or war. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M4" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> Drought variably<?xmltex \hack{\break}?> (directly or indirectly) caused social tensions and theft (i.e. as either a primary or secondary causative factor). <inline-formula><mml:math id="M5" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> Indigenous rain making is only referred to during the 1865–<?xmltex \hack{\break}?>1869 drought in our documentary records – this does not imply that the practice was absent during other drought events.</p></table-wrap-foot></table-wrap>

      <p id="d1e2139">As is the case with most such studies, it is important to acknowledge
potential data and methodological limitations. In this case, it is necessary
to recognize that the quantity and spatial coverage of information was
variable and more limited in earlier years than latter years or during
years of war or severe conflict. To this end, some attributes associated with
specific droughts may have gone unreported. As already mentioned, the
perspectives presented here are Eurocentric (for reasons of data
availability) and from particular geographic settings (i.e. stations located
next to rivers or a “permanent” water source) within the broader landscape
(space).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3">
  <label>3</label><title>The historic central Namibian rainfall or drought context</title>
      <p id="d1e2150">Mean annual rainfall across central Namibia (1891–1913) was highly variable,
ranging from 384–413 mm in the better-watered central and eastern highland
regions (Okahandja, Windhoek, Gobabis) to 254 mm in the southern region
(Rehoboth) and 174 mm in the western part (Otjimbingue) (Fig. 1).
Inter-annual rainfall variability is higher (and thus less reliable) in the
drier regions (Grab and Zumthurm, 2018). Rainfall is strongly seasonal, with
95 % falling over the austral summer or autumn seasons (November–April). The
long dry season (May–October) rarely has rain of any consequence and
averages from as little as 8 mm per annum at Otjimbingue to 25 mm per annum
at Gobabis. Several months without any rainfall during the dry season is
thus the norm for central Namibia. This has important implications for
when and where the rain season has been considerably below average, as it leads to enormous stress, challenges, and consequences for surviving the long dry
months. Vegetation patterns, human or animal movements, and human economies
during precolonial times were adapted to these semi-arid or arid conditions
across the region, with its annual cycle of brief summer rains and several
months of little to no rainfall (McCann, 1999).</p>
      <p id="d1e2153">Indigenous African inhabitants of central Namibia, before and during the
19th century, would have been familiar with such seasonal climatic
patterns and adapted their lives to best cope with environmental conditions.
People moved around with their livestock or planted and harvested crops at
specific localities and times of the year, thereby navigating the impacts of
extreme seasonal hydro-climatic variability or extreme climatic events.
While scholars have identified typical hunter-gatherer, agro-pastoralist, and
pastoralist groups for precolonial central Namibia (e.g. Gschwender,
1994/1995), such distinctions were not unambiguous. Almost all communities
hunted regularly, farmed, gathered occasionally or episodically, and kept
varying numbers of sheep, goats, or cattle. Furthermore, such communities
exchanged goods amongst each other and traded with neighbouring groups and
beyond (Wallace, 2011). Consequently, political and economic dominance was
tangible. In particular, much of central Namibia's economy functioned
through cattle, which was viewed to be the best option to store wealth, as
it was easily transferable. Combined with smart and shifting
alliance making, large herds of cattle allowed their controller to enforce
tribute systems or to claim land and thus ensure political dominance. Such a
socio-economic system was, however, easily disrupted through a variety of
factors such as drought, conflict, cattle diseases, and European
colonization or influence. As also reported for other regions of southern
Africa (e.g. Pribyl et al., 2019), such an indigenous socio-economy
gradually declined in significance as<?pagebreak page683?> European influences rapidly increased
through the late 19th/early 20th centuries.</p>
      <p id="d1e2156">The establishment of permanent missionary and other European settlements in
the region from the mid-19th century onwards altered local power
dynamics and brought about gradual change to some aspects of societal
lifestyles and the environment. It was the missionaries' desire and calling
to attract local inhabitants towards permanent settlement at mission
stations in order to not only control and finally convert them, but also to
teach them, among many other things, western agricultural principles that
they considered superior to those used locally. These processes would help
fulfil the colonial conquest. Consequently, this gradually changed the “open
indigenous agricultural economies” to more “closed agricultural economies”
(Ballard, 1986) which became increasingly dependent on local harvests,
grazing and water resources, and employment. Inevitably, as will be
demonstrated, this led to increased vulnerability and social tensions during
times of drought. Given that the importance of cattle as a means of
subsistence and wealth continued through the 19th and early 20th
centuries, grazing conditions were used as an important attribute to
defining the severity of drought by local inhabitants (European and
indigenous). However, we acknowledge that factors such as locust invasions,
livestock pressures (e.g. overgrazing), and fires would also have influenced
grazing conditions. Hence, while climate (droughts) undoubtedly influenced
social change, this always requires a critical assessment to avoid the trap
of “climate determinism” (see Hannaford et al., 2014).</p>
      <p id="d1e2159">Arguably the most significant and recurring extreme climatic event affecting
central Namibia during the period 1850–1920 was drought. Given the
region's strong bimodal rainfall pattern, Europeans writing from the area
during earlier years of settlement sometimes reported the occurrence of
drought during the dry season. However, as demonstrated, several months
without rain during the dry season is “normal” and thus does not constitute
drought, but rather dry-season aridity. It is important to recognize that
those reflecting and reporting on the central Namibian environment and its
climate were mostly German missionaries, who would have been accustomed to a
much cooler and wetter Germany. Although colonists would have arrived in
semi-arid central<?pagebreak page684?> Namibia with a likely central–northern European
perspective on drought, any naivety concerning the local context would
have changed as they became familiar with their new environs and interacted
and learnt from local inhabitants and fellow missionaries who were familiar
with the past and contemporary climate. For instance, after an initial 4 years in central Namibia, missionary Heinrich Kleinschmidt reports from
Rehoboth on 3 October 1846, that this is the “worst” time of year with respect to
water availability and grazing (i.e. end of the long dry season). He further
comments that there had only been limited rain during the last years and
that grass recovery was only moderate (ARRMS, 1847, p. 145). Such comments
suggest that while Kleinschmidt was familiar with the cyclic nature of
annual rain and dry seasons, perhaps the assessment of there having been
limited rain and moderate grass recovery is one of perspective, still in
part influenced from his region of upbringing in modern-day Lübbecke,
Germany. Lübbecke has a sub-Atlantic maritime climate with all-year
rainfall, and thus grass remains relatively green throughout the year. To
this end, and where possible, comments on weather, climate, and the
environment require careful scrutiny and comparison across various sources.
In most cases written texts contain valuable contextual information (e.g.
dryness or wetness of river channels, poor state of shrubs and trees, comments
from older indigenous inhabitants) which helps verify claims of
drought. In addition, several missionaries resided and travelled extensively
in central Namibia for many years and in some instances decades (e.g. Viehe:
26 years; Hahn: 30 years; Heidmann: 39 years; Bernsmann: 42 years; Irle: 47 years;
Diehl: 51 years), constantly interacting with local community members. In such
cases, missionaries developed excellent knowledge of the local weather
patterns and climate and were able to place contemporary climatic
conditions in perspective, comparing situations with those experienced over
many years prior. Two examples follow which place the severe droughts of
1902 and 1908 in perspective with the worst droughts recalled from the
second half of the 19th century: “In the 31 years that missionary Heidmann was in Rehoboth, he had never experienced such a dry year as this” [1902] (ARRMS, 1902, p. 20). In addition, “Missionary Irle, who had been in the region since 1869, could not remember the water table ever having been this low [as in 1902]” (ARRMS, 1902, p. 29). Moreover, “In the 34 years that missionary Dannert has been here [Omaruru], he can only recall the drought of 1879 being as severe as the one felt now [1908]” (ELKIN, V.23.1, p. 351).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4">
  <label>4</label><title>Results</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS1">
  <label>4.1</label><title>Droughts in central Namibia (1850–1920)</title>
      <p id="d1e2177">Compared to the work by Grab and Zumthurm (2018), who describe relatively dry
and very dry (drought) years over central Namibia between 1850 and 1900, our
current focus will only concentrate on “very dry” (drought) years; namely
those of 1850–1851, 1858–1860, 1865–1869, 1877–1879, 1881–1882,
1887–1890, 1895–1896, 1900–1903, 1907–1908, 1910–1911, and
1912–1913 (Fig. 2). Figure 2 lists the number of times drought is
mentioned in documentary sources each year and how this compares with the
hydrometeorological 19th-century chronology produced by Grab and
Zumthurm (2018). While the depicted results are impacted by documentary data
availability and do not necessarily indicate drought severity, the intention
with this figure is to provide a visual impression highlighting times when
drought received much mention (and thus attention) through written
sources, such as during the significant drought events of 1865–1869,
1877–1879, 1895–1896, and 1900–1903. Although the 1900–1903 event
does not receive as much mention (according to Fig. 2) as those during
1895–1896 and 1877–1879, this is largely due to fewer documentary
sources having been consulted for times since ca. 1900. The more recent
documents contain a much greater detail of information, hence requiring
fewer sources. However, the figure also demonstrates that concerns of
perceived drought conditions are reported much more frequently (66 % of
years) than the actual occurrence of drought (29 % of years) during the
19th century. This is largely due to conditions of (prolonged) seasonal
aridity, usually described as drought. Table 1 lists the reported
consequences, concomitant phenomena, and human responses during each of the
identified drought periods. We also provide a brief overview on the spatial
extent of these droughts through other parts of southern Africa, using
previously published 19th-century documentary-based climate
chronologies. Some comparative emphasis is placed on the neighbouring
semi-arid regions of the Kalahari to the south-east and east of central
Namibia and Namaqualand (winter rainfall zone) to the south of the current
study area (Fig. 1).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F2" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{2}?><label>Figure 2</label><caption><p id="d1e2182">Annual 19th-century rainfall reconstruction for southern African
subregions (see also Fig. 1). The bar graph indicates the number of times
drought is mentioned in central Namibian documentary sources each year
(please note that these results are at least in part influenced by
documentary source types and quantity). Information sources: southern
Kalahari – Nash and Endfield (2008); Namaqualand – Kelso and Vogel (2015); Lesotho – Nash and Grab (2010); KwaZulu-Natal – Nash et al. (2016); Malawi – Nash et al. (2018).</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=497.923228pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/16/679/2020/cp-16-679-2020-f02.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e2191">One of the first droughts (1850–1851) experienced by missionaries of the
RMS resulted in grasslands becoming degraded and barren and eventually led
to hunger, starvation, and death amongst the indigenous population (Hahn, 1984/1985, p. 581). Missionaries were particularly distressed that the
majority of people left stations in search of food and, consequently, that
very few children attended school (ARRMS, 1850, p. 21). This drought was
widespread across much of southern Africa (Nash and Endfield, 2002) and was
accompanied by famine and livestock deaths in Lesotho and surrounding
regions (Nash and Grab, 2010) (Fig. 2). In Namaqualand, drought conditions
occurred in 1851 when the winter rains largely failed (Kelso and Vogel, 2007).</p>
      <p id="d1e2195">The failure of two rain seasons (1858–1860) had consequences of
widespread hunger, poor harvests, livestock deaths, and missionaries relying
on food transported from the Cape Colony. Traveller and explorer James
Chapman was in Otjimbingue on 1 January 1861 and commented as follows: “No rain of any consequence has fallen here for 2 years. No grass anywhere, the trees and bushes bare”
(Chapman, 1971, p. 217). Although this was a period of “relatively<?pagebreak page685?> dry”
conditions across central southern Africa accompanied by early and late-seasonal rains but mid-summer drought during the 1858–1859 rain season (Nash
and Endfield, 2008; Nash and Grab, 2010), it seems that desiccation and its
consequences were more pronounced over central Namibia than elsewhere. To
the south, in Namaqualand, conditions in 1859 were wet but followed by
drought (1860–1862), for which the first known regional government
assistance was proposed (Kelso and Vogel, 2007). This demonstrates that
periods of wet and dry are not always synchronous between the mid- to
late-summer rainfall region of central Namibia and the predominantly winter
rainfall region to the south (Namaqualand) (Fig. 2).</p>
      <p id="d1e2198">The extended drought of 1865–1869 ranks as the longest (four consecutive
failed rain seasons) over central Namibia between 1850 and 1920. On 7 February 1866, missionary<?pagebreak page686?> Brincker writes from Otjikango that “in this year there is a great drought as is seldom experienced in this land, such that even the Swakop [River]
has not yet [7 February 1866] come down [or reached Okahandja], which otherwise would flow in December at the latest” (VEM RMG 2.585 C/i 6, p. 63). Later it emerged that the Swakop River never reached Otjimbingue for
3 years (1866–1868) (Irle, 1906, p. 22). What made this drought so
devastating is the cumulative year-on-year effect that progressively
worsened the situation, leading to widespread hunger, starvation, and the death
of indigenous people. In the Kalahari, this period started as relatively dry
but for the most part was near normal (Nash and Endfield, 2008). However,
winter rains largely failed in Namaqualand for 4 consecutive years
(1865–1868) (Kelso and Vogel, 2007), indicating prolonged drought over the
westerly sector of southern Africa. Reports for central and eastern regions
of southern Africa were variable, with near-normal to relatively dry
conditions over most parts, but some regions experienced harvest failures
(Nash and Grab, 2010; Nash et al., 2016). It is noteworthy that while there was
widespread and prolonged southern African drought over the summer rainfall
regions between 1861 and 1863 (Nash and Endfield, 2008; Nash and Grab, 2010;
Nash et al., 2017), this period was relatively wet (1861–1862) to very wet
(1862–1863) over central Namibia (Fig. 2). Then, when drought commenced
over central Namibia during the late 1860s, hydro-climatic conditions
improved over most of the southern African summer rainfall regions.</p>
      <p id="d1e2201">The 1877–1879 drought affected most southern African summer rainfall
regions (Nash et al., 2019) and coincided with what has been described as
the 1877–1878 “Global Drought” and “Global Famine” caused by a major El
Niño (Davis, 2001; Hao et al., 2010; Singh et al., 2018). This was indeed
one of the most devastating droughts in recorded history over central
Namibia. This drought, in connection with increasing conflicts that had
complex causes, had multiple consequences (Table 1): crop failures,
obliterated grasslands, dead trees, lack of wild foods, social tensions and
stock thefts, collapse of commercial enterprises, poverty, starvation, and
death amongst people and their livestock. Missionary responses to this
drought included dedicated days of prayer and repentance and fundraising so
that food could be purchased for those in the most desperate need. By 1879 the<disp-quote>
  <p id="d1e2205">conditions in Hereroland [had] not improved, but on the contrary, the longer [the situation lasted] the worse it [had] become. By far the main cause of this [was] the endless drought […] it seems that every now and again such periods return to southern Africa, where the drought worsens with each year, as is the case with Hereroland now, which finds itself at the end of a whole number of such years. (ARRMS, 1879, p. 19f)</p>
</disp-quote>This
drought seemed even more prolonged (1877–1881) in the Kalahari but was not
spatially synchronous across this region, with one or more isolated reports
of good rains in early 1880 (Nash and Endfield, 2002). Drought conditions
prevailed over central and eastern southern Africa during the years
1876–1879, with reports of poor crop production over Lesotho (Nash and
Grab, 2010; Nash et al., 2016). However, in direct contrast to the summer
rainfall regions, 1878 was a wet year over Namaqualand (but again dry in
1879).</p>
      <p id="d1e2210">The situation associated with the 1877–1879 drought, in most places of
central Namibia repeated itself in 1881–1882, largely owing to the combined
effects of drought and war (see Grab and Zumthurm, 2018). The drought of
1887–1890 was again a lengthy one with similar consequences to those
previously. Only the poorest of people stayed at mission stations and resorted to begging for food. Others had again spread out and followed a
nomadic lifestyle in search of grazing and water. Large stock losses were
reported from mission stations, while much of the indigenous population
remained in a state of poverty and hunger (Table 1). This drought was one of
the least synchronous across southern Africa during the latter half of the
19th century. The Kalahari was relatively wet to relatively dry (Nash
and Endfield, 2008) and Namaqualand normal to wet (Kelso and Vogel, 2007).
Although easternmost southern Africa experienced one of its most prolonged
droughts of the 19th century (1886–1890) (Nash et al., 2016), further
inland (Lesotho and central South Africa) conditions ranged from relatively
wet to relatively dry (Nash and Grab, 2010). In the extreme northern parts
of southern Africa (Malawi), conditions during this time were initially
relatively wet (1885–1887), but drought commenced during 1887–1888 (Nash
et al., 2018).</p>
      <p id="d1e2213">The final drought of the 19th century to impact central Namibia was due
to the failed 1895–1896 rain season. Rainfall records indicate only 48 %–50 %
of normal seasonal rains falling over the central and northern regions,
while to the south at Rehoboth only 44 % of the norm was measured (Fig. 2). According to the Annual Report of the RMS, “in all of Southwest Africa there [was] a major drought over most of the year, and in the southern parts of the country, the so-called “Groß-Namalande”, it caused total famine. [They] thus had to raise funds
[…] to avoid starvation” (ARRMS, 1896, p. 14f). Cattle and draught oxen were
reportedly in a very weak state, and to make matters worse, the
“rinderpest” (cattle plague) had arrived, which further decimated stock. In
this case, the drought was synchronous across southern Africa and considered
one of the most prolonged (1894–1899) and severe during the 19th
century in the Kalahari (Nash et al., 2016). Relatively dry conditions
prevailed over central southern Africa (Nash and Grab, 2010), but throughout eastern South Africa drought prevailed (1895–1900) with severe food
shortages due to poor crop yields, accompanied by locust infestations and
the rinderpest (Nash et al., 2016). This led to a variety of socio-economic
consequences across broad regions of eastern and central southern Africa,
such as poverty, malnutrition, migration, and socio-ecological change (Pribyl
et al., 2019). This also coincided<?pagebreak page687?> with the longest period of consecutive
dry or drought years in Namaqualand (1890–1899) during the 19th century
(Kelso and Vogel, 2007). Although dry conditions prevailed as far north as
Malawi until 1894, wetter conditions returned to that region thereafter
(Nash et al., 2018).</p>
      <p id="d1e2216">The period 1900–1903 was characterized by three successive below-average
rainfall seasons (averaging ca. 62 %, 55 %, and 60 % of the norm
respectively for central Namibia) (Fig. 3). The impacts were again
cumulative with each year, in particular affecting groundwater and grazing.
What made this drought worse still was the ongoing rinderpest (despite
vaccines now being used), the outbreak of Texas fever among cattle, and repeated
locust invasions which decimated any new grass growth and crops after it had
rained a little. The Otjimbingue 1901 station chronicle summarizes the
situation after the first of these failed rain seasons:<disp-quote>
  <p id="d1e2220">The drought lasted until early March [although it
continued to be dry thereafter]. The people's gardens were desiccated without exception, hunger was great, especially given that no employment was possible at this place. The wells are drying up and the spring for the mission houses has had no water for many weeks […] In February we had three rain showers which totalled 59 mm. The river came down very weakly for two days, enough to provide some water to the wells. Consequently, it started to green up in the area. But alas, the blazing sun and locusts soon destroyed the greenery. The follow-up rains never came and so the long period of drought continued. (VEM RMG 2.588 C/i 8:
p. 355f.)</p>
</disp-quote>The extended drought became so bad that it resulted in some
mission stations having to close down (something not reported during
previous droughts), such as the one at Omandumba (ARRMS, 1903). This was a
widespread southern African drought, with reported crop failures (Thorp,
1926; Msangi, 2004; Manatsa et al., 2008).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F3" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{3}?><label>Figure 3</label><caption><p id="d1e2228">Wet-season (November–April) rainfall totals for various stations across
central Namibia between 1891 and 1913.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=497.923228pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/16/679/2020/cp-16-679-2020-f03.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e2237">According to the 1907–1908 annual report [<italic>Jahresbericht</italic>] for Southwest Africa,<disp-quote>
  <p id="d1e2244">The rainfalls were not very productive. In April and May 1907 there were abundant rainfalls so that the grazing and water situation was good. In contrast, rainfall in this last season was well below-average. Even though this had less consequence for grazing to the north, the water situation was unfavourable, so that on many farms there were complaints about a lack of water even at the beginning of the dry season. (NAN, ZBU,
155 A.VI.A.3, vol. 17, p. 232)</p>
</disp-quote>Overall, central Namibia only had on average
ca. 69 % of its mean rainfall. Some places received near-normal rainfall
and thus did not suffer drought (for example, Otjimbingue received 88 % of its
normal rainfall). Other areas, however, experienced drought conditions, such
as Rehoboth (which received only 58 % of its normal rainfall) and Omaruru
(where the river never flowed during the rain season and the water situation
was dire) (ELKIN, V.23.1, p. 351). In contrast, there were reports of good
agricultural outputs over other parts of southern Africa with no mention of
drought (Thorp, 1926). However, for the Karoo region of South Africa, the
year 1907 was identified as the start of a near-continuous run of
below-average rainfall, which lasted until 1923 (du Toit and O'Connor,
2014).</p>
      <p id="d1e2249">The drought of 1910–1911 was particularly severe given far below normal
rainfall during the rain season, affecting all regions of central Namibia.
According to the Annual Report for Gobabis (1910–1911, p. 42f), “The rainfall season of 1910–1911 was very bad, especially for farming, as the December–January rains were almost entirely absent – only in March was there abundant rain”. The
instrumental records support this, indicating only 10 % (Otjimbingue) to
26 % (Gobabis) of normal December–January rainfall totals across stations. Although
some late-season (March–May) rains did indeed fall at Gobabis (100 % of the
norm), all other stations recorded well below normal late-season rains
(17 % at Otjikango to 44 % in Windhoek). This drought had severe
consequences, such as large stock losses (also due to the rinderpest), near-complete harvest failures, and a desperate shortage of water for human and
livestock needs. Drought was also reported from South Africa (1909–1911)
(Msangi, 2004), while the year 1911 marked the start of a long dry spell
(1911–1916) in former Southern Rhodesia (Zimbabwe) (Manatsa et al., 2008).</p>
      <p id="d1e2252">The drought of 1912–1913 was again widespread, as is also confirmed by the
instrumental rain records (Fig. 3). Since rainfall records began in 1891,
this was the driest rainfall season in the south (Rehoboth: 33 % of the
norm), the third-driest in the central highlands (Windhoek: 66 % of the
norm) and the second-driest in the north (Okahandja: 45 % of the norm), and
this collectively must rank as one of the most severe droughts (in terms of the rainfall or water deficit) since the mid-19th century. Such conditions are
confirmed in the Otjimbingue station chronicle for 1913, which describes the
land “far and wide looking dreary and burnt [by the sun]” but states that the mountain areas had received some rain
(VEM RMG 2.588 C/i 8, p. 415). The grazing situation was critical at
Otjimbingue, with apparently “not a single blade of grass to be seen for many hours distance from the station” (ARRMS, 1913, p. 40f), and around Rehoboth
in the south where “even the hunter-gatherer communities could not find the essentials to keep themselves alive” (ARRMS, 1913, p. 14). The drought was characterized
by complete crop failure in some areas and meagre crop harvests in others,
widespread drying up of wells, and depleted grazing, such that farmers were
preparing to vacate their land. This drought was synchronous over most of
southern Africa (Thorp, 1926; Manatsa et al., 2008; du Toit and O'Connor,
2014).</p>
</sec>
<?pagebreak page688?><sec id="Ch1.S4.SS2">
  <label>4.2</label><title>Subregional rainfall variability</title>
      <p id="d1e2263">Strong rainfall gradients occur through central Namibia, both north–south
and west–east (Fig. 1), which, together with “patchy” (isolated) rainfall
distribution in some years, does at times account for strongly contrasting
subregional conditions (Figs. 3 and 4). Thus, while most drought events
affected the entire region, there were several instances when one or more
areas had “sufficient” or “relatively wet” conditions during a “regional
drought”. One or two isolated heavy rain showers in a particular area may
have been enough to permit local stream discharge and rapid grass recovery,
while surrounding areas remained parched and dry. For instance, the rain
season failed entirely in Otjimbingue in early 1868 and grazing conditions
were in a terrible state, yet some rains fell and streams flowed three times
in Omaruru further north, where there was sufficient grazing, and vegetable produce and corn could be planted (BRM, 1868, p. 355). Missionary
Johann Heidmann reports from Rehoboth on 27 December 1877 that they had not
suffered as much from the drought as those at other stations across central
Namibia. Given that the drought impact at this usually drier locality was
not as severe as in usually better-watered regions,
Rehoboth may have had rainfall closer to its norm than other areas (VEM RMG 2.589
C/i 9, p. 143). The 1895–1896 rain season over most of central<?pagebreak page689?> Namibia was dry,
but further south (Rehoboth southwards) it became critically dry with drought
conditions. Yet, the usually much drier western region of Otjimbingue had
abundant rain, so much so that “grass over the new year was so good, as was not seen in many years” (ZBU, 146, A.VI.A.3, vol. 2). During the
drought of 1900–1903, conditions were at first also reported to be
variable across subregions. For instance, towards the end of 1901, while
the much awaited rains had arrived in the northern regions, these were
apparently scanty or patchy in the southern parts (ARRMS, 1902, p. 24).
However, while the end of year (November or December) instrumental rain records for
1901 do indeed show high rainfall in the north (Okahandja: 156 % of the
norm), they also show slightly above-normal rainfall for central (Windhoek:
110% of norm) and southern (Rehoboth: 115 % of norm) station
localities. At other times the documented accounts compare positively with
the instrumental records, as was the case in 1910, when apparently
abundant rains fell at Omaruru (northern study region), “but in other regions of the land it was not favourable in this regard” (ELKIN, V.23.1,
p. 375). Instrumental records confirm this, with Okahandja receiving 110 %
of the normal rainfall, while western, central, and southern regions
(Otjikango, Windhoek, Rehoboth) only received between 75 %–80 % of normal
rainfall. However, Gobabis in the eastern part of central Namibia received
122 % of its normal rainfall in 1910. This demonstrates that in addition
to the strong rainfall gradients across the region, there were also
disparate rainfall departures from the mean in a given season or year. In
this case, the somewhat wetter regions to the north and east received above-normal rainfall, while the drier regions to the west and south received less
than normal rain, consequently exaggerating rainfall gradients even more
beyond their norm.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F4" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{4}?><label>Figure 4</label><caption><p id="d1e2268">Dry-season (May–October) rainfall totals for various stations between
1891 and 1913.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=497.923228pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/16/679/2020/cp-16-679-2020-f04.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e2277">Conversely, there were times when most of central Namibia experienced
relatively dry to “near-normal” conditions that would not qualify as a
drought. In such years, most areas received sufficient rains, but there were
instances when subregions experienced drought. The year 1890 started
variably; in Otjimbingue, 100 km south of Omaruru, the rains failed, causing
people to disperse (RMG 2.588 C/i 8, p. 307), yet at Omaruru, sufficient
rain had fallen to permit good grazing conditions, such that people
congregated at the station again (ELKIN, V.23.1, p. 160). In early 1891,
Otjimbingue and Okombahe again had drought while reports from other regions
confirmed that good rains had fallen (RMG 2.588 C/i 8, p. 312).</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S5">
  <label>5</label><title>Discussion</title>
      <p id="d1e2290">What follows is a discussion on how missionaries perceived and experienced
droughts and their consequences through the time period 1850–1920.
Sub-periods of time are unpacked and characterized according to the most
notable and written-about impacts. This does not suggest a rigid linear
development of drought impacts and responses through time, and neither do we
imply that one particular impact was restricted to a given sub-period.
Rather, the intention is to demonstrate that the impacts, consequences,
responses, and perceptions of drought during this historical period were not
static through time.</p>
<sec id="Ch1.S5.SS1">
  <label>5.1</label><title>Drought during the 1850s: from famine to societal dispersal</title>
      <p id="d1e2300">Missionary Carl Hahn, stationed at Otjikango, reported the first
drought-induced famine during spring 1851. First reports of deaths from
starvation date from September 1851, and on 19 October Hahn wrote in his
diary that the “misery is enormous. Almost daily you see new pitiful creatures arrive at the station. They drag themselves over here to get some food. Our help is not enough at all” (Hahn, 1984/1985, p. 515). On 9 November 1851, Hahn noted
that several children had died and that the hardships were severe owing to
terrible drought. By mid-December he observed that there were more victims
of drought and hunger and that not even a third of the missionary station
inhabitants remained, but that people had scattered into the veld (open
country) where they were in search of wild berries and roots. It was only
towards the end of December 1851 when rains finally arrived, but these were
too late to avoid further hunger and starvation. From Rehoboth, missionary
Franz Kleinschmidt expressed concern at the absence of many children from
school due to drought and the dispersal of people. During 1850, some 180
pupils attended classes, but this dwindled to only 70 learners by April 1851
(ARRMS, 1851, p. 23). On 22 June 1852, missionary Johannes Rath wrote from
Otjimbingue that “the people who remain are parched by hunger and stray around like hungry wolves. You cannot do anything with such people anywhere in the world, least of all among pagans. The needs of the stomach overshadow everything else” (VEM RMG 2.588 C/i 8, p. 36).</p>
      <p id="d1e2303">The tension for missionaries during this time was that while their calling
was to attract people to the stations for evangelistic and educational
purposes, they did not have the capacity to feed local inhabitants during
times of drought and crop failure. Hence, people resorted to hunting and
gathering during such times, which meant the dispersal of the population and
mission stations being deserted. Similar tensions are alluded to by Endfield
and Nash (2002) for the Kalahari region, where the nomadic lifestyles of
indigenous people during earlier decades of the 19th century meant
finding strategies to attract local populations to permanent settlements. In
central Namibia, missionaries themselves were in dire need of food and
lacked any institutional supporting structure to assist them during times of
severe food shortages. For instance, when missionary Hahn travelled past
Rehoboth station on his way to Cape Town in 1859, he was shocked that
missionary Kleinschmidt and his family could only drink goats' milk and
depended on food they received from<?pagebreak page690?> travellers. Their cattle were too
malnourished to provide milk or meat (ARRMS, 1859, p. 34).</p>
      <p id="d1e2306">Population dispersal and movement as a local drought or famine coping mechanism
would not have been a new thing and was a typical or logical response that
would continue into later decades (Table 1). During times of drought,
dispersal (transhumance) was generally towards the better-watered north and
northwest but was likely restricted in distance given that such regions
would themselves already have been inhabited. A similar, but more regular
form of transhumance was observed during the first half of the 19th
century among the Namaqua Khoikhoi people of Namaqualand (Kelso and Vogel,
2015). Migration between the winter rainfall regions of Namaqualand and the
summer rainfall area of neighbouring Bushmanland served as a form of
resilience and a coping mechanism to overcome the impacts of drought in that
region (Kelso and Vogel, 2015). Although such human movement in response to
19th-century droughts is less widely reported from the wetter regions
of the subcontinent, it is reported that the combined impacts of drought
and rinderpest in the mid-1890s, resulted in the abandonment of villages and
large-scale migration in some of these regions (Pribyl et al., 2019).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S5.SS2">
  <label>5.2</label><title>Drought during the 1860s: from dispersal to societal tension</title>
      <p id="d1e2317">Drought during the 1860s intensified and that of 1865–1869 was one of the
longest and most devastating in recent historical times (Grab and
Zumthurm, 2018). During this “great drought”, missionary stations were again
vacated, and even missionaries and colonists were forced to abandon their
stations. For instance, economist Wilhelm Redecker departed Otjimbingue with
some of the converts to relocate where surface or groundwater was still
available along the Omaruru River (VEM RMG 2.588 C/i 8, p. 199). Others that
remained at their station (e.g. the missionary Friedrich Viehe, see below) felt
that they had been abandoned and left in need by the absence of all those
who had left. Peter Brincker reported from Otjikango on 10 September 1869
that “the drought and<?pagebreak page691?> in its wake the famine is pushing very hard on us and many poor people have died of starvation. Indeed, it was told here that the hunger among the Ovatjimba or the poor Herero [indigenous
people] is so large that they resorted to cannibalism, which most likely is exaggerated” (VEM RMG 2.588 C/i 8, p. 70). This is the only account which hints
at cannibalism in all the documents analysed, the reality of which even the
missionaries doubted. It thus serves to emphasize the seriousness with which
the situation was viewed. In desperation, missionary Brincker also departed
Otjikango station and moved to Otjimbingue where missionary Hahn was
stationed. Here too, there were only a few men with their families who
remained. Despite the shortage of food, Hahn claims that he was left with
little choice but to feed some hundred children from money provided by the
missionary society (BRM 1869, 262f). While there had been some improved
institutional financial support from Germany by the late 1860s, such support
seemed insufficient to benefit the needs of those residing at stations.</p>
      <p id="d1e2320">Missionaries usually demonstrated sympathy towards their communities and the
nomadic habits of their people. Although missionaries expressed a deep
understanding of the tensions and needs faced by the local population, their
descriptions began to include an undertone of disdain towards what was
considered “un-Christian” behaviour. For instance, in May 1868,
missionary Viehe complained from Otjimbingue that most of the residents were
away and would thus not be able to care for him and his family, and he writes:
“but who can take this amiss for a pagan people?” (BRM, 1868, p.  247). Drought seemed to regularly interrupt the core
purposes of the RMS in central Namibia, as is reflected by missionary
Brincker from Otjikango towards the end of the long drought (August 1872):<disp-quote>
  <p id="d1e2324">There is one thing that worries me, although an earthly one: it is the drought that is increasing each year. What should become of our communities if they cannot settle down and hence consolidate? Admittedly, we cannot complain about the roving of our community members, but the question arises if it is possible at all to implement culture under such unfavourable circumstances. Nature in this country treats these poor people more than uncharitably. (BRM, 1882, p. 234f)</p>
</disp-quote></p>
      <p id="d1e2328">Drought during the late 1860s was accompanied by armed conflicts, which
seemed to have escalated with time. Hence, human movement to and from
mission stations was no longer only a consequence of drought but also due to
conflict. Missionaries were well aware of this, so that in the annual report
of 1869, war was identified as the primary reason for the scattering of
residents from Otjimbingue. The editor added the following: “we hope for peace and rain so that the bulk of the black people can move onto the station again and our missionaries are saved and full of work again” (ARRMS, 1869, p. 24).
Missionary Heidmann, who had just reopened the station at Rehoboth in 1871,
acknowledged that it was not only the long drought and associated general
scattering of people, but also the “endless clan feuds and plundering raids” that were responsible for the
impoverishment of the once wealthy community (BRM, 1871, p. 129).</p>
      <p id="d1e2331">Drought and conflict cannot be separated in such circumstances as it was the
scarcity of grazing resources, death of livestock, hunger, and starvation due
to drought that essentially led to many of the conflicts, wars, and
livestock thefts. These were also connected to increasing trading activities
and wealth accumulation in the form of cattle (Henrichsen, 2011; Wallace,
2011). In Namaqualand, local communities experienced an aggravation of their
material situation at the same time, even though conflicts of the same scale
did not occur there. However, people lost much of their cattle and land to
new settlers (Kelso and Vogel, 2015). This development decreased their
mobility and increased their dependence on agricultural output, consequently
reducing their ability to deal with climatic stress. In central Namibia,
mobility remained a crucial strategy to overcome drought, despite
complicated interactions manifested through political and armed conflicts.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S5.SS3">
  <label>5.3</label><title>Drought during the 1870s: from societal tension to environmental
deterioration</title>
      <p id="d1e2342">The effects of armed conflicts became even more pronounced during the
drought of the late 1870s, a particularly severe dry period which affected
most of southern Africa (see Nash et al., 2019). To make matters worse for
the missionary vision, the exodus from stations continued during
periods of drought. The year 1877 was not an easy one for central Namibia
(known as Hereroland at this time): “firstly there was a long drought with famine”, and secondly because of “a strained relationship between the Herero and British colonists”. In addition, the Namaqua [indigenous people]
had to deal with their loss of power. Collectively, these factors triggered
conflict, which, “together with the consequences of drought increased distress and want even more” (ARRMS, 1877, p. 19f).</p>
      <p id="d1e2345">In 1877, William Palgrave was sent as a special commissioner from the Cape
to investigate whether Namibia had the potential to become a valuable British
colony. He commented on the extensive drought after arriving at Walvis Bay
on 12 October 1877: “The drought which has so seriously affected the Colony has also been severely felt in this country and Great Namaqualand, particularly by those who are wholly or in part dependant on the wild products of the earth for their subsistence. Many of those are starving and stock-lifting has become unusually prevalent and has given use to much bad feeling between the tribes” (CAD, NA 286). Many contemporary observers
noted that the Herero's cattle had rapidly multiplied over the years. They
moved southwards in search of new pastures due to drought in northern
Namibia, although political motives also played a role (Henrichsen,<?pagebreak page692?> 2011).
Missionary Eduard Heider from the southernmost station of the study area,
Hoachanas, wrote in 1877 that the complete Nama community was forced to
leave the station due to the Herero pushing into the region with large herds
of cattle (ARRMS, 1877, p. 31). Missionary Carl Büttner, who had spent
7 years at Otjimbingue, predicted in the same year that the expansion of
the Herero would force the Nama and Damara to become “violent thieves” (BRM, 1878, p. 11). A year later (1878), it was estimated that some GBP 800 worth
of stock had been stolen over a 6-month period in the immediate surrounds of
Rehoboth (VEM RMG 2.588 C/i 8, p. 247).</p>
      <p id="d1e2348">Due to a seemingly endless drought and armed conflict, conditions in
Hereroland progressively worsened through the period 1877–1879. The
impression was that due to multiple drought years, conditions had worsened
with each year in an accumulative manner, such that inhabitants suffered
greatly, so much so that this led to much conflict between white settlers
and the indigenous Herero over the need for the little grazing still available.
Conflicts also arose between the Herero and Namaqua, as well as between English
border patrols and those moving their herds (ARRMS, 1879). At this stage,
and continuing into the early 1880s, the entire German missionary cause in
central Namibia seemed to have disintegrated and required new approaches
given the constant coming and going of local people, in response to war and
drought. Missionary Brincker writes from Otjimbingue (1882): “There are two extremely obstructive enemies to our work here, namely war and drought.
[…] Our people have received a wretched land for their inheritance, in which no culture is possible. Christianity must take on a new form, it must nomadize, which has probably not yet been sufficiently understood and considered” (BRM, 1882, p. 359). Missionaries at various stations
responded with a declaration to commit 1 h of prayer for rain, twice
monthly.</p>
      <p id="d1e2351">The impression from missionaries was that drought had so much reduced wild
foods (bulbs, roots, berries, game, and “creeping things”) that the Damara
(mostly hunter-gatherer communities) were forced to steal livestock to stay
alive. Missionary Bernsmann from Otjimbingue, for example, wrote in 1878
that the Herero cast out the Nama and the Damara from their places and that
“there was only very little food to gather in the fields and [that] the game [had] escaped to places out of reach where they would still find good pastures. What choice other than stealing do they have?” (VEM RMG 2.588 C/i 8, p. 247). This led to campaigns
between the Damara and Herero, with “bloody consequences”. The view of the
German missionaries was, however, that the situation would not have been as
bad had it not been for the English government's plans to colonize
Hereroland (ARRMS, 1879, p. 19f). They were, nevertheless, also very
critical of the indigenous population for what was perceived to be
overstocking. On 13 March 1879 missionary Büttner makes a written
complaint to the local inhabitants near Otjikango: “in earlier times when you had less livestock you could stay in one place, and I remember in times of past drought how the church and school were full. Now that you are wealthy [with livestock] you always complain of hunger and avoid coming to the station”
(BRM, 1879, p. 302).</p>
      <p id="d1e2355">Notably, German missionaries gave the Damara considerably more attention
during the drought of the late 1870s than during that of the preceding
decade. Several missionaries emphasized the particularly hard fate of these
people. Due to the failure of rains and more intensive hunting of wild
animals and gathering of edible plants, it was the widespread impression
that such <italic>wild food</italic> products had become increasingly scarce. Similar observations (i.e. the disappearance of wild foods after drought events) were reported from the
Kuruman region of the Kalahari during the 1850s, where the environment and
settlement history is similar to that of central Namibia (Jacobs, 2002). By
the 1890s, environmental deterioration (e.g. a dearth of wild edible plants
and animals) seemed widespread across southern Africa and consequently
impacted drought resilience amongst indigenous communities (Pribyl et al.,
2019).</p>
      <p id="d1e2361">Endfield and Nash (2002) discuss in some depth the considerable attention
given by missionaries, such as David Livingstone, to desiccation theory.
Missionaries and travellers attempted to explain the reasons for what they
viewed as a progressive dessication of the Kalahari region. Although similar
concerns were at times expressed by missionaries in central Namibia, these
were usually in response to a particular extended period of drought. More
notable, however, were concerns for environmental deterioration – which
itself was strongly linked to depleting water resources. Rapid environmental
deterioration during the 1870s not only constituted the depletion of wild
edible plants and fauna, but also groundwater resources. Missionaries,
colonists, and indigenous people relied heavily on perennial springs, and
particularly so through the long dry seasons. Although unsustainable water
extraction and harvesting of wild foods is already alluded to in the 1860s,
such accounts become much more prominent during the 1870s and subsequent
decades of colonialism. On 11 October 1860, missionary Rath arrived
at Tsaobis station and commented that this place formerly had a spring that
never dried up. He lamented that the nonsensical economy of the whites
resulted in “not a drop of water to be found there anymore” (VEM RMG 2.588 C/i 8, p. 117). A decade later (September
1871), missionary Hahn wrote from Ameib, reflecting that in past years,
water had occurred in abundance there and in the Erongo Mountains but that
given the severe droughts over the past years, there had been a dramatic
disappearance of springs. However, he also blamed the Namaqua people for the
general environmental destruction, particularly the deforestation of shade-bearing mimosas (VEM RMG 1.577 a B/c II 3, p. 451). By late February 1877,
missionary Julius Dannert at Otjimbingue noted that the spring, which
usually had running water throughout the year, had dried up. Water was only
available at a depth of 7 ft. Earlier there were rows of poplars
growing in front of the<?pagebreak page693?> mission house at Otjimbingue, but these, like most of
the fruit trees planted by missionary Barnabas Hörnemann, had perished
by 1877 owing to drought (RMG 2.588 C/i 8, p. 242f). Otjimbingue, Omaruru,
Omburo, and other mission stations had “permanent” springs in their
riverbeds, from where water flowed onwards for at least an hour's walk
during the entire year. However, by 1879, such spring water had dried up
considerably, or even disappeared in some cases. Consequently, one now had
to dig wells in the Otjimbingue and Omaruru streambeds, while the spring at
Omburo only flowed over half its former distance (ELKIN, V.23.1, p. 63).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S5.SS4">
  <label>5.4</label><title>Drought during the colonial era (1880s–1920): capitalism and further
environmental deterioration</title>
      <p id="d1e2373">Gradually, during the 1870s, opportunities for wage labour expanded more
rapidly. One of the first mentions of wage labour comes from missionary
Böhm stationed at Ameib in 1873:<disp-quote>
  <p id="d1e2377">Hunger and poverty are part of the lives of the Namaqua, but one can sense that the desperation is no longer as severe as in previous years. Most of these people, apart from during short hunting campaigns, tend to stay at the station even during dry times. The men earn much through ostrich hunting and last year made plentiful tobacco, a portion of which they sell. (ARRMS 1873, p. 37)</p>
</disp-quote>The
increasing dependence on wages had positive and negative consequences for
the ability of indigenous inhabitants to acquire food. It diversified their
livelihood options and, as also reported from eastern parts of southern
Africa (see Pribyl et al., 2019), alleviated stress on local food supplies.
In contrast, during earlier 19th-century drought events in central
Namibia, missionary stations were the primary (and often only) source of
food aid to those most in need. However, this diversification did not
noticeably increase their resilience to drought. In part, this is because
they became more vulnerable to harvest failures as community and family
structures were weakened (see Pribyl et al., 2019) and less time was
invested in subsistence agriculture. Similar consequences of externally
exposed and novel economic realities were observed in late 19th-century
Namaqualand (Kelso and Vogel, 2015).</p>
      <p id="d1e2382">One of the most important new modes of earning a living for people connected
to missions was the so-called <italic>Frachtfahren</italic>, which involved the transporting of goods by
ox-cart (ELKIN, V.23.1, p. 51). However, <italic>Frachtfahren </italic>was interrupted in 1878 due to
drought (lack of water and food for draught oxen) – this had serious
implications for those reliant on wage labour. As commerce increased, many
new drivers were required by the 1890s. The head of the Otjimbingue district
reported in 1897 that while indigenous people had extensively cultivated
crops in riverbeds in earlier years, this practice had receded in importance
given that considerable money could be earned through <italic>Frachtfahren</italic>. Consequently, it was
more attractive for drivers to earn a living and buy food rather than to
produce it themselves (NAN, ZBU, 147, A.VI.A.3, vol.2a., p. 142). This
practice was not without its problems, especially after the rinderpest.
People had lost their livestock during the outbreak and were now forced to
buy goods or new oxen on credit. A similar situation troubled communities
further south in Namaqualand during the 1860s (Kelso and Vogel, 2015).</p>
      <p id="d1e2394">During the 1900–1903 drought, there were several accounts of people not
having enough food in Rehoboth, Omaruru, and Otjimbingue given the fact that
income opportunities from <italic>Frachtfahren </italic>had declined, also due to drought (ELKIN, V.23.1,
p. 245; ARRMS, 1901, p. 24; VEM, RMG 2.588 C/i 8, p. 355f). For 10–11 months
the drought was so severe that <italic>Frachtfahren</italic> closed down almost entirely, and where
it continued, it was at “great loss” (assumably loss of draught animals)
(ARRMS, 1903). At the time, it proved difficult to find an alternative way
to obtain food. Prices were exceptionally high in times of drought, wild
foods were now increasingly scarce to find, and wage labourers generally did
not cultivate crops themselves. One possibility for supplementary wages
during times of drought was to work on the railways or in the mines for a
meagre salary (ARRMS, 1911, p. 35; ELKIN, V.23.1, p. 252). In Otjosazu, the
harvests of 1901 largely failed, resulting in substantial hunger amongst
poor people who, unlike the more financially privileged, were unable to
purchase food to replace what they had lost through the bad harvest (ARRMS,
1901, p. 29).</p>
      <p id="d1e2403">A new form of relief for mission communities during the 1900–1903 drought
was financial or material support from the colonial government. The RMS
mentions in its 1902 annual report that the impact of drought was felt as
severely as ever. The RMS thanked settlers and, in particular, the German
government for their support, through which stations had apparently received
not only drought relief money and food aid but also financial assistance
for much needed infrastructural developments and renovations, which could
improve future drought-coping mechanisms (ARRMS, 1902, p. 20). For example,
the station of Hoachanas received food worth 1000 marks from the German
state, which, in addition, financed the construction of 22 wells (ARRMS,
1902, p. 20). The first reported construction of a sand dam or water reservoir
is mentioned in the 1901–1902 Annual Report for the Windhoek district (p. 228). Water in this reservoir had apparently reached a depth of 3.5 m in
1902 and demonstrates a first major infrastructural and long-term water
management initiative. It is doubtful, however, that such government aid had
any far-reaching positive effects as many people were still forced to find
wild food products during times of desperation, and the general decline of
human health was widely reported during the first decade of the 20th
century. The official German Annual Report for the colony of South-West
Africa (1911–1912) announced that “the lack of fresh milk, on which locals have depended as staple food for<?pagebreak page694?> generations, plus the scarceness of field crops, which were the only available fresh vegetables for locals after the drought of 1911, can be regarded as the main reason for the many cases of scurvy” (NAN, ZBU, 161, A.VI.A.6, vol 1, p. 16f).</p>
<sec id="Ch1.S5.SS4.SSS1">
  <label>5.4.1</label><title>Impacts on vegetation cover</title>
      <p id="d1e2414">Degradation of vegetation during times of drought seems to have been
spatially patchy, largely owing to anthropogenic factors. Grass and shrubs
were heavily grazed around mission stations and settlements where some water
was still available (through springs or wells) as well as along the transport
routes. There are thus accounts of livestock deaths along transport routes
for lack of grazing, as was the case during the drought of 1877–1879.
On his journey from Ameib to Walvis Bay in March 1878, missionary Böhm
described that there was no grass to be seen along the route and even less
so at watering points and grazing posts. He observed oxen from many other
people on their way to collect goods from the ship (at Walvis Bay), but
that many of these had died as they were too starved and weak – many lost
more than half their outspan (BRM, 1878, p. 206). As also mentioned by Grab
and Zumthurm (2018), drought and war forced the Herero to keep their
livestock close to Omaruru during the 1880–1882 drought. Consequently, not
only was grass cover completely depleted, but even grass roots were damaged
due to trampling. This would have had longer-term consequences for
vegetation recovery even when the rains returned. Once the situation had
become more peaceful, livestock could be taken to more remote outposts where
there was still sufficient grazing (ELKIN, V.23.1, p. 101). Similar accounts
came from other stations during droughts and dry periods of the late
19th century, in part, also due to the substantial growth in livestock
numbers. Missionary Diehl reports from Okahandja in September 1886 that
grazing was so heavily depleted around the station that even soon after the
end of the rainy season there was no grazing to be found in a wide area
around the post (BRM, 1887, p. 75). Similar developments occurred in late
19th-century Namaqualand, when, after decades of intensive land use, it
took communities much longer to recover from droughts than earlier in the
century (Kelso and Vogel, 2015).</p>
      <p id="d1e2417">Such situations described above would further worsen as livestock numbers
continued to increase and severe droughts returned in later years. At the same
time, trading intensified and more and more goods were transported. On
arrival of the 1895–1896 drought, authorities had realized that both the
decimated vegetation and its associated risks to draught animals along the
northern transport route and its outposts via Otjimbingue, required some
intervention (long-term coping/adaptation mechanism). Thus, plans were made
for an alternative more southerly transport route, via Rehoboth:<disp-quote>
  <p id="d1e2421">With the start of the new year [1895] the heat intensified and as a consequence also the drought. Often the clouds accumulated and promised much rain, but the west wind blew them away. The desperation increases; people and livestock suffer. The Frachtfahrer are afraid to journey to the bay because their losses increase from week to week […] From Swakopmund and the Bay there have been some 880 freight items delivered into the hinterland in 1 year, of which over 500 were transported via Otjimbingue. Some 10 000 to 12 000 oxen as draught animals came over Otjimbingue this past year, where they would spend several days to rest, feed, and recover, but at the same time decimated the grazing. The troops have thus started building an alternative route via the Kuiseb River from the Bay to Rehoboth and thereby relieve the pressure on the main route from the coast to Windhoek. (VEM
RMG 2.588 C/I, p. 8)</p>
</disp-quote></p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S5.SS4.SSS2">
  <label>5.4.2</label><title>Impacts on groundwater</title>
      <?pagebreak page695?><p id="d1e2433">Water management was an integral part of missionary life in southern Africa,
particularly in drylands such as the Kalahari, where wells and small-scale
irrigation schemes were already established in the 1820s (Endfield and Nash,
2002). Similar initiatives are documented for central Namibia, but these
were temporally considerably delayed in comparison to parts of the Kalahari.
Drought at the beginning of the 20th century had a serious impact on
groundwater availability across central Namibia and wells drying up were
widely reported, much more so than during previous droughts (Table 1). For
instance, the well at the missionary house at Otjimbingue, completely dried
up in March 1901, preventing the planting of crops (VEM, RMG 2.588 C/i 8, p. 355f). The missionary well at Omaruru, which “always had water in abundance”, had to be deepened in
1901 (ELKIN, V.23.1, p. 252). The drought of 1901 was similar in magnitude
(i.e. rainfall quantity) to the drought of 1896 in most areas (Fig. 3).
This suggests that increasing water demands and associated groundwater
extraction may have contributed to the faster depletion of groundwater in
1901 and hence the necessity to go deeper. Accounts of springs or wells drying
up became frequent during the colonial period, even during 1903–1904 when
rainfall had improved slightly in some districts (NAN, ZBU, 151, A.VI.A.3,
vol.10, p. 102; Annual Report 1903/1904, Windhoek). After another dry rain
season (1907–1908), the head of Windhoek district reported that numerous wells
were dry (NAN, ZBU, 156 A.VI.A.3, vol. 19, p. 3). Although wells were
deepened at Omaruru in 1907, the following year, missionary Dannert had to
dig even deeper to reach water required for domestic purposes. The situation
worsened during the drought of 1910–1911, forcing the colonial government to
increase drilling activities and go deeper still. In early 1911, the great
well at Otjimbingue, which was by now operated using a wind engine, had
dried up for the first time since its construction 35 years earlier. The
station's first Herero Christian convert, Johanna Gertse (75 years of age), could not remember the water level ever being that low (VEM RMG 2.588 C/i 8,
p. 405). Such accounts further suggest rapid groundwater depletion during
the early 20th century due to recurring droughts and greater water
extraction driven by both water demand and improved extraction ability. In
response to the severe drought of 1910 and associated state of emergency on
farms, the German colonial government committed itself to drilling
operations on private farms. However, given such a low water table, drilling
was required to much greater depths than during previous dry periods, in
some cases to depths of 40–50 m (NAN, ZBU, 159, A.VI.A.3, vol. 24, p. 85f).
Reports in 1911 emerged from many districts that blasting and drilling
operations were being undertaken in desperation to reach groundwater. For
instance, in Otjikaru, drilling was required to 38 m depth, but even so
“only” provided 250 L h<inline-formula><mml:math id="M128" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> (ARRMS, 1911, p. 37). A consequence of
wells is enhanced grazing resource and wild food depletion in the vicinity
of such watering points. The congregation of people and their livestock
around such scarce water resources during dry seasons and times of drought
has led to ongoing associated land cover degradation during more recent times
in semi-arid regions of southern Africa (see Campbell, 1986).</p>
      <p id="d1e2448">While technological advancements during the first decade of the 20th
century permitted water extraction from greater depths and served as both
an immediate drought-coping and longer-term drought adaptation mechanism,
this surely had negative implications for future groundwater resources,
water supply and ecosystems. During the severe drought of 1910–1911,
apparently “hundreds of large and strong trees along the Omusena River perished for lack of water” (VEM RMG 2.588 C/i 8, p. 405f). During recent times, similar
concerns have been expressed for riparian vegetation along Namibia's
ephemeral rivers, where water availability is erratic and sensitive to water
abstraction and the construction of dams in upper catchments (Jacobson et
al., 1996; Jacobson and Jacobson, 2013; Arnold et al., 2016). We thus pose
the question whether this early ecological disaster (possibly the first
reported in central Namibia) was due only to the exceptional drought or to a
combination of drought and deep-water extraction associated with increased
water demand.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S6" sec-type="conclusions">
  <label>6</label><title>Conclusions</title>
      <p id="d1e2461">This study has highlighted historical drought events in semi-arid central
Namibia between 1850 and 1920. Early instrumental rainfall records
(1891–1913) used in this study aid quantifying the hydrometeorological
severity of some of the identified drought events. These further demonstrate
the confined period of summer rainfall (December–April) and the natural annual
cycle of several months of negligible rainfall, constituting aridity rather
than drought. Such instrumental rainfall records are valuable to quantify
drier or wetter years and the extent, duration, and severity of droughts.
However, determining the <italic>real</italic> impact of historical hydrometeorological droughts
depends largely on available documentary sources which report
environmental and human consequences and associated responses. To this end,
the central Namibia historical drought context, within the given temporal
and spatial context of this study, presents some important key findings as follows.</p>
      <p id="d1e2467">The severity of historical drought impacts over central Namibia, during some
drought events were spatially strongly contrasting. This is due to the
extreme west–east and north–south rainfall gradients; hence percentage
rainfall departures from the norm can be highly variable across the region
during a given drought event. Consequently, place-based natural
environmental and anthropogenic consequences and responses would differ
markedly in magnitude during some drought events, as would reporting on the
event.</p>
      <p id="d1e2470">The consequences of drought in a semi-arid environment with strongly seasonal
rainfall are potentially far more catastrophic than drought events in
regions with rainfall distributed throughout much of the year. This is due
to the cumulative impact that a failed rain season has upon the subsequent
long (ca. 6-month) dry season. Our study also identifies multiple consecutive
failed rain seasons (e.g. 1865–1869) that not only led to uninterrupted
drought over several years, but also a year-on-year cumulative drought
impact.</p>
      <p id="d1e2473">Human experience and associated reporting of drought events depends strongly
on social, environmental, spatial, and societal developmental situations and
perspectives. For instance, drought in this study is reported mostly from
missionaries who were strategically positioned within the broader landscape
(i.e. next to springs, episodically flowing rivers). Missionaries were
relatively immobile given their career and societal calling. This would have
been in direct contrast with the indigenous people, who led a highly mobile
lifestyle across the entire region and beyond – although such mobility
decreased through time and had dire consequences in later years (social
tensions, conflicts, lowered coping mechanism to drought). As populations
and livestock numbers grew, these resulted in overstocking (and overgrazing,
excessive trampling) in specific spatial contexts with low carrying capacity
during later years. Hence, the perceived impacts of droughts in later years
would have also been a product of human engineered circumstances. In later
years, increased water abstraction (lowering water tables), holding back
river flow through reservoir constructions, the ability to more easily
acquire imported foods, opportunities for employment and improved travel,
would have collectively changed the dynamics and experiences of a given
drought event. In addition, “external” factors that were rare or unknown in
earlier decades of the study period but which became more prominent in
later years (e.g. locust plagues, rinderpest, increased occurrence of
fires) impacted human and livestock resilience and thus the perceived impacts
of drought. This was not only the case over central Namibia but<?pagebreak page696?> also in wetter
regions of southern Africa (see Hannaford et al., 2014; Pribyl et al.,
2019).</p>
      <p id="d1e2477">Our paper makes an important contribution to the study of historical
droughts, both globally and more specifically to southern Africa (see
Brázdil et al., 2018), by demonstrating the imperative to evaluate
historical drought events, not only according to meteorological parameters
but also in consideration of changing natural-environmental and
human-environmental contexts through time. For this, written documentary
sources are an essential and invaluable proxy record that ought to be more
regularly considered when evaluating the severity of past droughts.</p>
</sec>

      
      </body>
    <back><notes notes-type="dataavailability"><title>Data availability</title>

      <p id="d1e2484">Raw data may be requested directly from the authors: stefan.grab@wits.ac.za or tizian.zumthurm@img.unibe.ch.</p>
  </notes><app-group>
        <supplementary-material position="anchor"><p id="d1e2487">The supplement related to this article is available online at: <inline-supplementary-material xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-679-2020-supplement" xlink:title="pdf">https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-679-2020-supplement</inline-supplementary-material>.</p></supplementary-material>
        </app-group><notes notes-type="authorcontribution"><title>Author contributions</title>

      <p id="d1e2496">TZ collected all documentary resources. SG and TZ undertook data analysis and wrote the paper.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="competinginterests"><title>Competing interests</title>

      <p id="d1e2502">The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="sistatement"><title>Special issue statement</title>

      <p id="d1e2508">This article is part of the special issue “Droughts over centuries: what can documentary evidence tell us about drought variability, severity and human responses?”. It is not associated with a conference.</p>
  </notes><ack><title>Acknowledgements</title><p id="d1e2514">We thank two anonymous referees and editor who provided valuable suggestions
to help improve the paper.</p></ack><notes notes-type="financialsupport"><title>Financial support</title>

      <p id="d1e2519">This research has been supported by the Fritz Sarasin-Stiftung and Differenzstipendium of the University of Basel.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="reviewstatement"><title>Review statement</title>

      <p id="d1e2526">This paper was edited by Rudolf Brázdil and reviewed by two anonymous referees.</p>
  </notes><ref-list>
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    <!--<article-title-html>“Everything is scorched by the burning sun”: missionary perspectives and experiences of 19th- and early 20th-century droughts in semi-arid central Namibia</article-title-html>
<abstract-html><p>Limited research has focussed on historical droughts during the
pre-instrumental weather-recording period in semi-arid to arid
human-inhabited environments. Here we describe the unique nature of droughts
over semi-arid central Namibia (southern Africa) between 1850 and 1920. More
particularly, our intention is to establish temporal shifts in influence and
impact that historical droughts had on society and the environment during
this period. This is achieved through scrutinizing documentary records
sourced from a variety of archives and libraries. The primary source of
information comes from missionary diaries, letters, and reports. These
missionaries were based at a variety of stations across the central Namibian
region and thus collectively provide insight into subregional (or site-specific) differences in hydrometeorological conditions and
drought impacts
and responses. The earliest instrumental rainfall records (1891–1913) from
several missionary stations or settlements are used to quantify
hydrometeorological conditions and compare them with documentary sources. The
work demonstrates strong subregional contrasts in drought conditions during
some given drought events and the dire implications of failed rain seasons,
the consequences of which lasted for many months to several years. The paper
argues that human experience and associated reporting of drought events
depends strongly on social, environmental, spatial, and societal
developmental situations and perspectives. To this end, the reported
experiences, impacts, and responses to drought over this 70-year period
portray both common and changeable attributes through time.</p></abstract-html>
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Kelso, C. and Vogel, C.: Diversity to decline-livelihood adaptations of the
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Nash, D. J. and Endfield, G. H.: “Splendid rains have fallen”: Links between
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Change, 86, 257–290, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9274-z" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9274-z</a>, 2008.
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Nash, D. J. and Grab, S.: “A sky of brass and burning winds”: documentary
evidence of rainfall variability in the Kingdom of Lesotho, southern Africa,
1824–1900, Clim. Change, 101, 617–653, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9707-y" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9707-y</a>, 2010.

</mixed-citation></ref-html>
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Nash, D. J., Pribyl, K., Klein, J., Neukom, R., Endfield, G. H., Adamson, G.
C. D., and Kniveton, D. R.: Seasonal rainfall variability in Southeast
Africa during the nineteenth century reconstructed from documentary sources, Clim. Change, 134, 605–619, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1550-8" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1550-8</a>, 2016.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
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Nash, D. J., Pribyl, K., Endfield, G. H., Klein, J., and Adamson, G. C. D.:
Rainfall variability over Malawi during the late 19th century, Int. J.
Climatol., 38, e629–e642, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5396" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5396</a>, 2018.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
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Nash, D. J., Klein, J., Endfield, G. H., Pribyl, K., Adamson, G. C. D., and
Grab, S.: Narratives of nineteenth century drought in southern Africa in
different historical source types, Clim. Change, 152, 467–485, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2352-6" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2352-6</a>, 2019.
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Pribyl, K., Nash, D. J., Klein, J., and Endfield, G. H.: the role of drought
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</mixed-citation></ref-html>--></article>
