Private diaries are important sources of historical data
for research on climate change. Their advantages include a high veracity and
reliability, accurate time and location information, a high temporal
resolution, seasonal integrity, and rich content. In particular, these data
are suitable for reconstructing short-term, high-resolution climate series
and extreme climatic events. Through a case study of Yunshan Diary, authored by Bi Guo of
the Yuan dynasty of China, this article demonstrates how to delve into
climate information in diaries, including species distribution records,
phenological records, daily weather descriptions and personal experiences
of meteorological conditions. In addition, this article considers how to use
these records, supplemented by other data, to reconstruct climate change and
extreme climatic events on various timescales, from multidecadal to annual
or daily. The study of Yunshan Diary finds that there was a relatively low amount of
precipitation in central and southern Jiangsu Province in the summer of
1309; the winter of 1308–1309 was abnormally cold in the Taihu Lake basin.
In the early 14th century at the latest, the climate in eastern China
had begun to turn cold, which reflects the transition from the Medieval Warm
Period to the Little Ice Age.
Introduction
Reconstruction of past climates can help better understand and respond to
current climate change and predict future scenarios (PAGES, 2009).
Historical documents are one of the primary sources of proxy data used to
reconstruct past climatic information. Compared to natural proxy data (e.g.
tree rings, ice cores and stalagmites), historical documents are advantageous in their spatial coverage, temporal resolution, dating accuracy, location accuracy and clarity of climatic significance (Zheng et al., 2014). Globally, most such historical documents are in China, Japan and
Europe (Pfister et al., 2008). Thanks to its long history, China has
enormous quantities of documentary data, including abundant climate-related
records which are uninterrupted for the past 2 millennia. This is China's
exceptional advantage in historical climate research (Man, 2000).
There are four types of Chinese historical documents that contain climate
information. These are (1) the traditional documents classified as jing (classics), shi (histories), zi (philosophies) and ji (anthologies); (2) local gazettes compiled by magistrates; (3) archives of the Ming and Qing dynasties, represented by Qing Yu Lu (The Records of Sunny or Rainy Days) and Yu Xue Fen Cun (The Records on Rainfall Infiltration and Snowfall); and (4) private notes and diaries (Zhang, 1996; Ge et al., 2018). In China, diaries can be traced back 2 millennia to the Western Han dynasty. There are more than 1000 surviving ancient diaries (referring to diaries written before the collapse of the Qing dynasty in 1912) (Chen, 2004), of which approximately 200 contain weather or weather-related records (Ge et al., 2018). Currently,
private diaries of the Ming and Qing dynasties, mostly authored by officials
or men of letters, are used as one of the primary sources in historical climate research. However, compared to studies based on other documentary
data (e.g. history books, local gazettes and archives), historical climate
studies based on data in diaries are relatively limited and mostly focused
on the 17th to 20th century. Studies have been done mainly based
on weather, phenological and personal perception records in diaries. The
available results involve a number of areas, including the reconstruction of
temperature series, extreme cold events, and the characteristics of
temperature change (Chu, 1973; Fang et al., 2005; Liu and Man, 2012; Xiao et
al., 2006; Zheng et al., 2015), the reconstruction of precipitation and the
East Asian rainy season (also known as the Meiyu season) (Man et al., 2007; Xiao et al., 2008; Yan et al., 2011; X. Zhang et al., 2011, 2013a), dust weather (Fei et al., 2004, 2005, 2009; Zhang et al., 2006; Yang et al., 2013), and adaptive human behaviours (Zhang et al., 2007b). Researchers have also discussed the veracity and reliability of weather and climatic records in diaries (Zhang et al., 2007a, 2013a; Fei et al., 2009).
In Europe, weather diaries have been used to study temperature (Nordli,
2001), precipitation (Gimmi et al., 2007; Pfister et al., 1999), droughts
(Linderholm and Molin, 2005) and climatic effects of volcanoes (Lee and
Mackenzie, 2010) in historical periods, particularly the period from the
16th to the 19th century. These diaries were mostly written by priests, farmers and scholars. For example, based on the weather records in the diary of an Italian priest, Raicich (2008) analysed temperature and precipitation conditions in Trieste in the period 1732–1749. Based on an English farmer's diary, Lee and Mackenzie (2010) identified climate abnormities in England in the 2 years following the eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815. In India, Adamson and Nash (2013, 2014) studied the onset date of the summer monsoon as well as monsoon precipitation based on private diaries and other documents. In Japan, diaries have been used to study summer temperatures (Mikami, 2008), the winter monsoon (Hirano and Mikami, 2008) and typhoon weather (Grossman and Zaiki, 2009). Diaries have also been used to investigate historical climate in other regions, including Australia (Gergis et al., 2012) and Africa (Grab and Nash, 2009; Nash and Grab, 2010).
Through a case study of a 14th-century diary, Yunshan Diary, this article
illustrates the types and characteristics of historical climatic information
recorded in ancient Chinese diaries and demonstrates how to use these
records to analyse the characteristics of weather and climatic events as
well as climate change on various timescales. Through the analysis of
Yunshan Diary, the severe cold winter of 1308/09 in the Taihu Lake basin and the drought in the summer of 1309 in southern Jiangsu Province are identified. On a multidecadal scale, it is proved that the climate had begun to turn cold in the early 14th century at the latest.
Data sourcesBrief introduction to Yunshan Diary
The raw materials used in this study originated from Yunshan Diary, which is included in
A Series of Diaries of the Jin and Yuan Dynasties published by Shanghai Bookstore Publishing House (Gu and Li, 2013).
Yunshan Diary was written by Bi Guo (1280–1335), also called Tianxi Guo, a famous
calligrapher and painter of the Yuan dynasty. Guo was born in present-day
Zhenjiang in Jiangsu Province. He used to be a lecturer at local academies
in Jiangsu and Jiangxi and a county official in Zhejiang (Yu, 1989). During
the period recorded in Yunshan Diary, Guo resided in Zhenjiang, but he travelled multiple times on official business or to visit friends. The scope of travelling involves central and southern Jiangsu Province and northern Zhejiang Province, primarily within the Taihu Lake basin (TLB) (Fig. 1).
Map of the study area. (a) Climatic regionalization and location of the TLB (Wang and Zuo, 2010). (b) The scope of Guo's travelling. (c) Guo's travelling route.
Situated in the Yangtze River Delta along the southeastern coast of China,
the TLB (119∘3′–121∘54′ E,
30∘7′–32∘14′ N) encompasses an area of
3.69×104 km2. Except for a few low mountains and hills
in the western region, it is mostly dominated by flat plains (altitudes
below 10 m). With the highest drainage density in China, the TLB is home to
numerous rivers and lakes, and the Taihu Lake is China's third-largest
freshwater lake. The TLB has a subtropical monsoon climate. North winds
prevail in the cold and dry winter, while southeast winds prevail in the hot
and rainy summer. The annual average precipitation here is 1000–1400 mm
(1951–1980; the same below); the annual average temperature is 15–16 ∘C, and the average temperature in January is 1.5–4 ∘C (Huang, 2000; Wu et al., 1993; Xu et al., 2017).
Covering a total of 16 months, from 12 September 1308 to 2 December 1309,
Yunshan Diary contains daily records of Guo's work and life, together with daily weather descriptions on most days. In this study, the dates in the diary (originally on the lunar calendar) were converted to dates on the Gregorian calendar according to The Chinese Almanac for Two Thousand Years (Perpetual calendar editing group, 1994). For example, a
record reads, “It is sunny on the second day of the ninth lunar month of the
first year of Zhida (, )”, and the date can be converted to 16 September 1308. All the dates in this article are Gregorian dates. The ancient place names in the diary were converted to the corresponding present-day city or county names according to The Historical Atlas of China (Tan, 1982).
Other data
For quantification and comparison purposes, modern meteorological data from
instrumental measurements were used in this study. These data originated
primarily from the collections of early instrumental data (The reference
room of Beijing meteorological centre, 1984) and the China Meteorological Data Service Center (http://data.cma.cn/, last access: 14 March 2020). All the data were published by the National Meteorological Information Center of China Meteorological Administration.
Modern phenological data originated primarily from the collections of
observation data of the Chinese Phenological Observation Network (Wan, 1986;
Wan and Liu, 1986). Some phenological data about meteorological events were
extracted from the Daily Surface Climate Dataset for China (V3.0).
Extraction of historical climatic information and the reconstruction of weather and climate
On the whole, climate records in historical documents can be classified into
four categories based on the content (Zheng et al., 2014), (1) weather
records, including qualitative descriptions (such as sunny, cloudy and rainy)
and quantitative observation (such as the infiltration depth of each
precipitation event in Yu Xue Fen Cun); (2) meteorological disaster records, such as floods, droughts, and their impacts on agriculture and society; (3) phenological records, such as the flowering date of plants, the migration date of birds; and (4) records relating to the characteristics of regional climate, such as cropping system, distribution range of specific crops and
fruits, the southern boundary of snowfall, and the southern boundary of river
freezing. As one kind of private document, the diary contains records of
personal experiences of meteorological conditions additionally, which record
authors' subjective feelings about the weather (such as warm and cold). All
the records relating to weather and climate in Yunshan Diary were excerpted based on a
comprehensive read. In addition, the time and location of each weather or
climatic event were recorded.
Four types of information were extracted from Yunshan Diary, namely, species distribution
records (one), phenological records (six), daily weather descriptions (342),
and personal experiences of meteorological conditions (87).
Species distribution records and their climatic significanceSpecies distribution records
The distribution range of plant and animal species is adapted to the zonal
climatic characteristics of the region and reflects the average climatic
conditions over decades (Zheng et al., 2014). The species distribution range
is limited by environmental conditions (Gong et al., 1983a). If there is a
definite and predominant climate-limiting factor for the survival of a
certain species, its distribution range may be an indicator of the climate
(Man, 2009). For example, the planting areas of zonal crops and fruit trees
may indicate the climatic characteristics of the region on a multidecadal
scale. Phased climate change and the movement of the climatic zone can be
deduced by comparing the planting areas between time periods (Zheng et al., 2014).
The study area is located in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and
belongs to the north subtropical zone. Central and southern areas of Jiangsu Province
are close to the northern boundary of the north subtropical zone, one of the
regions that is most sensitive to climate change in China (Zhang, 1996).
Within this region, the main species with notable climatic significance are
subtropical crops, animals and plants. (1) The northern planting boundary
of double-cropping rice roughly corresponds to ≥10∘C active
accumulated temperature of 4800 ∘C (Zheng et al., 2014). The
lower reaches of the Yangtze River are close to the northern planting
boundary of double-cropping rice. Since the Tang dynasty, the rise and fall
of double-cropping rice in the study area has approximately corresponded to
climate change in terms of temperature (Man, 2009; Zhang, 1996). (2) For
subtropical plants, such as citrus and tea trees, their growing areas are
primarily limited by winter temperatures and freezing injury. The northern
planting boundary of these plants is close to the northern boundary of the
subtropical zone (Man, 1999; Man and Yang, 2014; Zhang et al., 2019). (3) For subtropical animals, such as rhizomys, elephants, buffalos and Chinese
alligators, their distribution ranges are affected by human activities to a
large extent. As a result, the distribution range of animals is less
accurate than that of plants as climate indicators (Gong et al., 1983a).
One species distribution record was excerpted from Yunshan Diary, which was recorded
during Guo's sojourn in Hangzhou in 1308. It reads, “there are several dwarf
citrus trees outside the window, bearing countless fruits, which weighed
down and almost broke the branches; there are no such trees in my
hometown”.
Climatic significance of the species distribution record
Citrus is a typical kind of subtropical perennial fruit, which prefers a
warm, humid climate. It is sensitive to low temperatures and can be easily
hit by freezing injury. The winter minimum temperature is the primary factor
that limits the northern planting boundary of citrus (Man, 1999), which
cannot go past the isoline of a multiyear average extreme minimum
temperature lower than -9∘C (Zheng et al., 2014). Citrus is
native to China. China has a history of nearly 3 millennia of citrus
tree cultivation. Thus, there are rich, comparable records for citrus
planting locations in the historical documents. Therefore, in China, the
northern planting boundary and southern freeze-to-death boundary of citrus
are widely used indices in the study of climate change on a long timescale
(Chu, 1973; Gong and Zhang, 1983; Man, 1998; Zhang et al., 1977; Zhang,
1996).
Man systematically collated the changes in the northern planting boundary of
citrus between the Spring and Autumn Period and the Qing dynasty and
discussed their correlation with climate change (Man, 1999). In the
mid-13th century, the citrus planting area reached at least Nanyang
(33.0∘ N) in Henan and Nanjing (32.2∘ N) in Jiangsu.
Orange trees, which are relatively cold resistant, were once planted in
Jiaozuo (35.2∘ N) in northwestern Henan. In the mid-Ming dynasty,
citrus planting records only appeared in Shanghai (31.3∘ N) and
Taicang (31.5∘ N) in the Yangtze River Delta. Further north, there
were only records of orange plantings in Dantu (32.1∘ N), Tongzhou
(32.0∘ N) and Rugao (32.3∘ N). In the early Qing
dynasty, no citrus planting records are available in Shanghai.
According to the records in Yunshan Diary, in the early 14th century, citrus was
planted in Hangzhou (30.2∘ N), whereas no citrus was planted in
Zhenjiang (32.2∘ N), Guo's hometown. The latitude of Zhenjiang is
similar to that of Nanjing. Evidently, the northern planting boundary of
citrus was further south in this period than in the mid-13th century.
This suggests that the climate had begun turning from warm to cold.
Phenological records and their climatic significancePhenological records
Phenology is the study of the times of recurring natural phenomena
especially in relation to climate and weather (Vliet and De Groot,
2003). Here, the broad definition is adopted – that is, phenological
phenomena include not only recurrent biological phenomena but also
recurrent meteorological or hydrological phenomena, such as the timing of
frost, snow and river freezing. There are three main types of phenological
phenomena, namely, phenological phenomena of plants (including the
sprouting, leafing, flowering, and defoliation of woody plants and the
sowing, farming, and harvesting of crops), phenological phenomena of animals
(including the arrival, first warble, last warble, departure, and
hibernation of migratory birds, insects, and other animals), and the
periodicity of meteorological or hydrological events (including the first
frost, last frost, first snow, last snow, and freezes and thaws of rivers
and lakes).
Advances or delays in phenological phases are primarily affected by climatic
factors, particularly temperature. The basic approach for reconstructing
historical climate change based on phenology is as follows. The phenological
dates in historical records are compared with those of the same phenological
phenomena at the same location in modern times, and the differences of the
climate factors between the ancient and present times are deduced from the
relationship between phenology and climate (Liu et al., 2017). Three
factors, namely, time, location and phenological event, need to be
clarified when constructing historical climate based on phenological
records. Compared to records from other data sources (e.g. agricultural
books and poems), it is relatively easy to verify the time and location of
records in private diaries, but the phenological events require careful
textual research.
In this study, potential phenology-related records were identified in
Yunshan Diary and further examined to determine their veracity. For example, on 6 October 1308, Guo was in Hangzhou and wrote the following in Yunshan Diary: “There was a frosted moon all over the sky and chilly air”. While he mentioned “frosted” and “chilly”, this record is insufficient to suggest that the first frost in Hangzhou in 1308 occurred on 6 October. First, “frosted moon ()” is a fixed phrase in Chinese, which appears more than 40 times in Complete Tang Poems alone. Frosted moon refers to a cold night's moon. In this term, the moon is likened to frost to highlight its pure white colour and coldness (Chen, 2018). For example, in one of his poems, Zhenbai Wang of the Tang dynasty wrote, “a frosted moon is setting”. Second, no frost-related records appear again in the diary over the period of more than a month between 6 October, when Guo wrote, “a frosted moon all over the sky” in his diary, and 11 November, when Guo left Hangzhou. Instead, there are some records relating to hot weather in the diary. For example, Guo wrote, “The inn was very warm, and my clothes were drenched in sweat, so I kept shaking a fan”, on 10 October
and “It rained again, humid and hot”, on 25 October in his diary.
Therefore, the frosted moon in the abovementioned record is a literary
expression and should not be used as evidence for the phenological event of
first frost.
A total of six phenological records were identified from Yunshan Diary (Table 1).
Phenological records in Yunshan Diary.
Gregorian dateLocationPhenological phenomenonTextual descriptions29 November 1308HuzhouRice harvestingI heard my neighbours threshing rice grains. The children sangthe songs of Wu without stopping throughout the night,which I did not hear in my hometown. It was a sceneof a bumper harvest year.14 December 1308HuzhouFirst snowIt was raining and graupelling, so I could not go out.... After drinking, graupel fell heavily again.21 December 1308HuzhouFirst freezingThere was frost. The water was frozen.9 March 1309ZhenjiangLast snowSnow fell heavily after the light was lit.29 March 1309ZhenjiangFull flowering of peachI looked outside of the Dingbo Gate, seeing peachand plum flowersand plum flowers, red and white.10 July 1309Yangzhou–GaoyouFull flowering ofToday, I travelled on a boat. There were red and whitelotus flowerslotus flowers in the shallow water, never-endingover tens of li. This was a marvellous spectacle.
The species corresponding to the phenological records of animals and plants
in Yunshan Diary were identified, and their present-day names were determined. In
addition, the phenological phases were defined according to the text
description in the diary on the basis of modern phenological observation
methods. Here, the fifth phenological record in Table 1 is used as an
example. In Yunshan Diary, there is a record of the blooming of peach and plum flowers in
Zhenjiang on 29 March 1309. The relevant record reads, “At dusk, I went out
of the gate of the Ganlu Temple. I looked outside of the Dingbo Gate, seeing
peach and plum flowers, red and white.” In China, Prunus davidiana Franch is distributed primarily in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, whereas Prunus persica (L.) Batsch is distributed primarily in the Yangtze River basin and Huaihe River basin (Gong et al., 1983a). The modern full flowering stage of Prunus persica (L.) Batsch occurs between 14 March and 15
April in Zhenjiang (Wan, 1986). Based on the geographical distribution and
phenological phase, it can be deduced that the “peach” in the diary refers
to Prunus persica (L.) Batsch. The modern unified observed flowering stage of woody plants is divided
into three substages, the first flowering stage, the full flowering stage
and the end of flowering stage. The full flowering stage for woody plants is
defined as “the stage when petals have unfolded from more than half of the
flower buds on the observed trees” (Wan and Liu, 1979). According to the
record in Yunshan Diary, Guo stood by the gate of the Ganlu Temple and looked outside of
the Dingbo Gate. The Ganlu Temple is approximately 1 km away from the
historic site of the Dingbo Gate. The fact that Guo could see a scene of
“peach and plum flowers, red and white” from such a distance suggests that
the flowers must have been in high bloom and met the aforementioned requirement – “petals have unfolded from more than half of the flower
buds”. Therefore, it can be deduced that Prunus persica (L.) Batsch was in the full flowering stage
on 29 March of that year.
Climatic significance of the phenological records
Of the six phenological records in Yunshan Diary, one was from the fall of 1308, two were from the winter of 1308, two were from the spring of 1309, and one was from the summer of 1309. Corresponding phenological phases in modern times at the same locations can be found for three of the records. A comparison can help deduce the climatic conditions at that time.
The first snow in Huzhou in the winter of 1308 occurred on 14 December, 17 d earlier than the modern (1957–1979) average first-snow date of 31 December. According to the climate formation mechanism, an advance in the first-snow date in China is often related to the time of the southward movement of cold air masses from their source region, Siberia (Zheng et al., 2005). This suggests that the winter of 1308–1309 was relatively colder than usual, with stronger winter monsoon winds and a lower average temperature.
The last snow in Zhenjiang in the spring of 1309 occurred on 9 March,
compared to the present-day average last-snow date of 7 March (Wan, 1986).
The full flowering stage of Prunus persica (L.) Batsch in Zhenjiang in 1309 occurred on 29 March, compared to the present-day average full flowering date of 1 April (Wan, 1986; Wan and Liu, 1986). These two phenological phenomena can both reflect the temperature in spring. The last-snow date is primarily related to the time of reductions in the activity of cold air masses (Zheng et al., 2005). The time of the phenological phases of plants in spring is closely related to the temperature in the period before. The higher the temperature is, the more rapidly plants develop and the earlier the phenological phenomenon occurs (Gong et al., 1983b). There are no significant differences in the last-snow date and full flowering date of Prunus persica (L.) Batsch between the spring of 1309 and
the present time. This suggests that the temperature in the spring of 1309
was close to the modern average spring temperature.
Daily weather descriptions, personal experiences of meteorological conditions and their climatic significanceDaily weather descriptions
In addition to recording his daily activities, Guo often briefly described
the weather conditions of the day. Generally, weather conditions were
recorded on a daily timescale and described using simple words, like
cloudy, sunny, rainy and snowy. Changes in weather conditions within a day
were sometimes recorded, and precipitation was also sometimes described in
detail. Records of weather descriptions were excerpted on a daily timescale. They can be classified into three main types, namely, sunny, cloudy
and precipitation (including rainy and snowy). Other weather descriptions,
including windy, frost, fog and so on, were marked as “other”. If there
was no record of weather on a certain day, it is marked as “missing”.
When no direct weather descriptions are available, deductions can sometimes
be made based on other text descriptions. For example, a sunny day can be
deduced from a description of Guo's outdoor activities in the open air.
There are a total of 342 records of daily weather descriptions in Yunshan Diary, and the
integrity rate is 67.8 %. Table 2 summarizes the monthly statistics of
each weather type in Yunshan Diary.
Monthly statistics of the number of days for each weather type.
MonthMain locationsSunnyPrecipitationCloudyOtherMissingIntegrity rateSeptember 1308*Zhenjiang12410289.5 %October 1308Hangzhou81631390.3 %November 1308Hangzhou and Huzhou20112680.0 %December 1308Huzhou8924874.2 %January 1309Changzhou and Zhenjiang142231067.7 %February 1309Changzhou and Zhenjiang10932485.7 %March 1309*Zhenjiang11921874.2 %April 1309Zhenjiang117201066.7 %May 1309Changzhou and Zhenjiang116001454.8 %June 1309*Zhenjiang77001646.7 %July 1309Zhenjiang and Xinghua33012422.6 %August 1309Zhenjiang116011358.1 %September 1309*Zhenjiang48201646.7 %October 1309Zhenjiang and Changzhou23400487.1 %November 1309*Zhenjiang15440776.7 %December 1309Zhenjiang01100100.0 %
Notes: main locations refers to the locations where Guo stayed more than
3 d within the month. The locations Guo passed by but did not stay at
are not included. * indicates that Guo stayed at only one location for the
entire month. Yunshan Diary covers the period from 12 September 1308 to 2 December 1309.
Thus, records are available for only 19 d in September 1308 and 2 d in December 1309.
Personal experiences of meteorological conditions
In addition to recording objective weather phenomena, Guo sometimes recorded
his subjective feelings of the weather conditions. These records are
scattered and appeared primarily on days with relatively extreme weather
conditions or a sudden change in weather. A total of 87 records of personal
experiences of meteorological conditions were extracted from Yunshan Diary. These records
can be classified into three types, namely, perceptions of temperature
changes (mainly represented by “cold”, “hot”, “warm” and “cool”),
the effects of weather conditions on humans' lives (e.g. “clothes drenched
in sweat” and “unable to sleep in the cold night”) and humans' responses
to weather changes (e.g. “it has been very cool for several days, so I put
on clothes with lining”). It is difficult to quantify and compare these
records. Thus, they are only used as qualitative indices to supplement
weather descriptions.
Characteristic analysis of monthly or seasonal precipitation based on daily weather descriptions
By continuous tracing daily weather descriptions, it is possible to
reconstruct a certain weather event or weather conditions in a certain month
or season.
In eastern China, there is a positive correlation between monthly
precipitation and monthly number of precipitation days. The number of
precipitation days for each month can be determined through the statistics
of daily weather descriptions, so it is possible to estimate the
precipitation based on the correlation. In this way, the precipitation of
each month in 1309 in Zhenjiang is reconstructed. However, in February, the
author was out of Zhenjiang for more than a third of a month; in July, the
author mainly stayed in Xinghua instead of Zhenjiang; in December, there
were only 2 d of records. In order to reduce uncertainty, these 3 months were not included in the analysis. Let P be monthly precipitation. It is worth noting that Guo frequently took excursions and rarely stayed an entire month in Zhenjiang and thus missed some precipitation events. For comparison purposes, assuming that precipitation days are evenly distributed within a month, the proportion of precipitation days (R) is defined as
follows. For the instrument-measurement period, R is the number of
precipitation days in Zhenjiang divided by the total number of days of the month. For 1309,
R is the number of precipitation days in Zhenjiang recorded in Yunshan Diary divided by total number of days when Guo stayed in Zhenjiang in that month.
Of the modern meteorological stations, the Gaoyou station, which is the
station closest to Zhenjiang, was chosen for analysis. The instrument-measured data obtained at the Gaoyou station for the period
1955–2018 demonstrate a significant positive correlation between P and R in each month, with a confidence level of 99.9 %. The correlation
coefficients range from 0.55 to 0.9. Table 3 summarizes the linear
regression equations established between P and R for each month. When the
independent variable (R) is zero, the dependent variable (P) should also be zero. Therefore, the linear regression model with no intercept is selected. Figure 2 shows the reconstructed results for monthly precipitation.
Linear regression equations between P and R for each month.
Notes: Pi is the precipitation of month i (unit: mm); Ri is the
proportion of precipitation days of month i; R2, F and P are the
goodness of fit, the ratio of the regression mean square to the residual
mean square and the significance level of the regression equation,
respectively.
Precipitation and the proportion of precipitation days in Zhenjiang for each month of 1309 and their comparison with the modern averages. Notes: * indicates a month when Guo stayed entirely in Zhenjiang. The precipitation for February, July and December 1309 was not reconstructed due
to insufficient data.
Here, the precipitation characteristics in the summer of 1309 are described
briefly. In June 1309, there were 7 precipitation days in Zhenjiang,
which is 4.5 d less than the modern average (1981–2010). The reconstructed precipitation in Zhenjiang for June 1309 is 102.3 mm, which is 40 % lower than the modern average (1981–2010). In July 1309, Guo primarily stayed in Xinghua. The integrity rate of daily weather descriptions for this month is low. Nevertheless, terms such as “extremely hot” and “unbearably hot” can be found on multiple occasions in the diary for this month. This suggests that the temperatures were relatively high throughout this month. In addition, only 2 precipitation days were recorded in the diary. On days without direct weather descriptions, Guo
often did outdoor activities, such as excursions, boating and resting in
the shade (e.g. “Mr. Zhan and I rowed a boat into the lake to enjoy the
cool but were frustrated by the mosquitos” on 25 July). Therefore, it can
be deduced that most of the days without weather descriptions were not
precipitation days. Clearly, there were high temperatures and a low
precipitation in Xinghua in July. In August 1309, Guo primarily stayed in
Zhenjiang. Few days with precipitation records can be found in the diary for
this month. The first precipitation record – “It rained so I felt
happy” – is found in the entry for 25 August. This is likely because there
had been no rain in the nearly 20 d before that. In summary, there was a
relatively low precipitation in central and southern Jiangsu in the summer
of 1309.
It is necessary to note that the precipitation events recorded in Guo's
diary were those that he observed. Some precipitation events might have been
too slight for humans to notice. Gimmi et al. (2007) believed that the
lowest daily precipitation that humans can perceive is 0.3 mm. And
precipitation events that occurred in the night may also be ignored by humans.
Therefore, the number of precipitation days extracted from the diary may be
less than the actual number. In addition, the integrity rate of daily
weather descriptions is quite low in some months, which may increase the
uncertainty in the conclusion.
Reconstruction of cold wave processes in winter based on daily weather descriptions
There are a number of records, often vivid and detailed, relating to
cold-weather phenomena, such as low temperatures, rain, snow and freezes,
in Yunshan Diary for the period December 1308–February 1309. These records are highly valuable for understanding the climatic characteristics of the winter of 1308–1309. In this winter, Guo stayed in the TLB. Specifically, he stayed in Huzhou from 1 to 30 December and in Zhenjiang and Changzhou from
31 December to 28 February. Zhenjiang and Changzhou are geographically close
and have similar wintertime climatic characteristics. Thus, they are viewed
as the same region for analysis in the following study. Table 4 summarizes
the daily weather conditions derived from Yunshan Diary in the winter of 1308–1309.
Daily weather conditions in the period December 1308–February 1309.
Notes: “freeze” means the freezing of water. In fact, frost and
freeze are natural phenomena affected by weather, which are closely
related to temperature. Therefore, they are also shown in this table.
A cold wave is a weather event leading to a dramatic decrease in
temperature, which is caused by the large-scale invasion of cold air from
high latitudes to middle and low latitudes. According to the modern national
standard in China, Cold Wave Levels (GB/T21987-2017), a cold wave refers to a cold-air event
that results in a decrease in the minimum temperature in a location by ≥8∘C within 24 h, ≥10∘C within 48 h or ≥12∘C within 72 h and causes the minimum temperature in the
location to be ≤4∘C. The main weather characteristics of
the invasion of a cold wave into Jiangsu include temperature decreases,
strong winds, rain and snow. The invasion of a cold wave also results in a
probability of precipitation of 92 % (The editorial board of “The climate of Jiangsu Province” from Jiangsu Meteorological Bureau, 1992). Cold waves in late fall or early spring often cause frosts, while cold waves in the dead of winter may lead to freezing rain and the freezing of rivers, lakes and ports (P. Zhang et al., 2011). There will be a rise in temperature after a cold wave.
It is impossible to deduce the extent of decrease in temperature based on
the textual records in Yunshan Diary. Nevertheless, multiple records for weather
phenomena (e.g. rain, snow, frosts, freezes and strong winds) closely
related to cold waves can be found in the diary. Thus, periods in which
these representative weather phenomena continuously occurred were extracted
from the diary. On this basis, together with Guo's perceptions of
temperature changes, it is deduced that at least four notable cold waves
occurred in the TLB in the winter of 1308–1309 (highlighted in blue in
Table 4). The third and fourth cold waves were extremely strong. In
addition, there was a notable increase in temperature between two contiguous
cold wave events, predominantly reflected by consecutive sunny days and
subjective feelings such as “warm”.
The third cold wave occurred between 1 and 5 January 1309. During this time,
Guo was travelling on a boat back to Zhenjiang from Wuxi via the Jiangnan
Canal, a section of the Beijing–Hangzhou Grand Canal. On 1 January, “A northeast
wind broke out, and it was extremely cold”; and it began to snow at night.
On 2 January, the weather remained “bitterly cold”. In addition, the oar
began to ice over, affecting the sailing. On 3 January, “Ice had closed in
from all directions”, and the canal was completely frozen. This rendered it
impossible to sail the boat. The boatmen broke the ice and moved it onto the
canal bank. Eventually, “piles of ice, two or three chi tall, were accumulated
on the canal bank”. Evidently, there was a considerably thick ice layer in
the canal. On 4 January, the weather cleared up, but the temperature
remained very low. “There was thick ice in the canal, and we could not move
forward”. On 5 January, it remained impossible to sail the boat. Guo had to
abandon the boat and ride a horse home. Manifestly, the temperature was
extremely low during this cold wave, and the Jiangnan Canal was frozen for
at least 3 d.
The fourth cold wave occurred between 1 and 10 February 1309. There were
8 consecutive days of snowfall from 1 to 8 February. The snowfall was so
heavy that Guo could not leave the house. In addition, there was a notable
phenomenon of snow cover. There is a snowfall, snow cover or icing record
for every day between 3 February, when “Snow-covered trees connected with
one another”, and 12 February, when “The snow melted”. Thus, it can be
deduced that snow cover lasted for approximately 10 d. The snow cover was
so deep that “No roads could be seen in all directions”.
DiscussionClimate change indicated in Yunshan Diary
The following climatic characteristics can be derived from the above
analysis. The climate in eastern China was colder in the early 14th
century than in the mid-13th century. In the summer of 1309, there was
relatively low precipitation in southern Jiangsu. In the winter of
1308–1309, it was abnormally cold in the TLB. On this basis, a combination
of the records in the diary and other historical data or modern
instrumental-measured data can help deduce the actual climate conditions at
that time. A combination of multiple cases can help improve climate
reconstruction for a certain time period or a certain region.
Drought conditions in the summer of 1309
As mentioned previously, there was a relatively low level of precipitation
in central and southern Jiangsu Province in the summer of 1309. The
precipitation (reconstructed value) in Zhenjiang in June was approximately
102.3 mm, which is 40 % lower than the modern average (1981–2010). In
July, there were high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinghua. In
August, the precipitation (reconstructed value) in Zhenjiang was
approximately 62.1 mm, which is 56 % lower than the modern average
(1981–2010).
Another piece of evidence showing that this summer was dry was the locust
plague in central and southern Jiangsu Province. Dry environments provide
suitable soil and climatic conditions for the growth, development and
reproduction of locusts. Thus, droughts and locust plagues often occur
concomitantly in China. There are two records relating to “locusts” in
Yunshan Diary in early August 1309. These records involve the government's calls for people and boats to catch locusts.
The locust plagues in 1309 can also be confirmed by other historical
records. According to the History of Yuan, locust plagues occurred in Nantong, Taizhou, Yangzhou, Nanjing and Gaoyou in Jiangsu Province in 1309. Other provinces, such as Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Anhui and Beijing, also suffered from locust plagues. There is a record that reads, “It was a dry year with scarce food” for Beijing (He, 2009; Zhang, 2004). The cross-validation of these records suggests that the summer of 1309 was relatively dry, and locust plagues occurred in many areas in North China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.
The severe cold winter of 1308–1309
Due to a lack of instrument-measured data in the historical period, it is
impossible to accurately reconstruct the temperature. Nonetheless, it is
possible to derive some indices directly related to temperature from
historical records, such as the number of snowfall days (Xiao et al., 2006;
Zhang and Liang, 2017), the number of snow-cover days (Xiao et al., 2006;
Yan et al., 2014) and the snow-cover depth (Zhang and Liang, 2014, 2017).
Some space-related indices, such as the southern boundary of snowfall (Wang
et al., 2004) and the southern boundary of river freezing (Wang et al., 2004; Zhang and Liang, 2017), are also available when there were abundant
records in different locations. Through these indices, historical cold
winters can be compared with the average conditions and extremely cold years
in modern times (Table 5). On this basis, the extent of coldness and the
climatic characteristics in the historical period can be deduced.
Climatic indices of the Zhenjiang–Changzhou region in January and
February 1309 and their comparison with those obtained from modern
instrument-measured records.
1309Average forModern extreme cold-winter 1953–2010years 195519691977Ns in January (days)13.855.514.5Rs in January33.33 %38.10 %71.42 %42.31 %93.55 %Ns in February (days)83.159.52.5Rs in February88.89 %28.77 %33.33 %59.38 %38.46 %Minimum temperature in January (∘C)<-13-6.7-17-8.4-15.3Minimum temperature in February (∘C)–-5.3-4.9-14.2-12.2Average temperature in January (∘C)–2.8-0.72.1-0.7Average temperature in February (∘C)–4.66.20.72.4
Note: Ns: the number of snowfall days;
Np: number of precipitation days (including rainfall days
and snowfall days). Rs: rate of snowfall =NsNp
(Gong et al., 1983b).
In January 1309, the Jiangnan Canal was frozen for at least 3 d.
There was a relatively thick ice layer in the canal, rendering it impossible
to sail boats. Based on the hydrological characteristics of rivers in the
Jiangnan region, Zhang et al. (1977) deduced that the critical temperature
for the river to completely freeze in this region is approximately -13 to
-15∘C. In modern years when the Jiangnan Canal was frozen (1955
and 1969), the extreme daily minimum temperatures were indeed lower than -13∘C at the nearby meteorological stations. This demonstrates that the above conclusion is reliable in general. On this basis, it is inferred that the minimum temperature in Zhenjiang might have reached below -13∘C when the river was frozen between 3 and 5 January 1309.
According to the modern instrument-measured data, there were only 3 years with an extreme minimum temperature below -13∘C in the
Zhenjiang–Changzhou region from 1954 to 2019. The lowest daily minimum
temperature (-17∘C) in January in this region occurred in 1955.
In early January 1955, the minimum temperatures in the middle and lower
reaches of the Yangtze River reached -10 to -15∘C. Except for
the main stream of the Yangtze River, all the rivers and lakes were frozen,
mostly to depths of 16–35 cm. Boats were frozen in the Han River and the
Dongting Lake (Ding, 2008; Feng et al., 1985). Evidently, the climatic
conditions in January 1309 were quite similar to those in January 1955 – an
intense cold wave occurred in early January, causing the lakes and rivers in
the lower reaches of the Yangtze River to freeze. However, due to a lack of
data, it is impossible to determine the weather conditions in January 1309
in regions other than the Zhenjiang–Changzhou region.
In February 1309, there were 8 consecutive days of snowfall and 10
consecutive days of snow cover in the Zhenjiang–Changzhou region. The roads
were buried in snow, severely affecting people's commutes. The canal was
also frozen. In modern times, on average, there are approximately 3.1
snowfall days and 2.8 snow-cover days in this region in February, far fewer
than the numbers in February 1309. Clearly, the snowfall and snow-cover
conditions in February 1309 were quite rare. According to the
instrument-measured records from 1954 to 2019, the lowest daily minimum
temperature (-14.2∘C) in the Zhenjiang–Changzhou region in
February occurred in 1969. In 1969, as a result of the continuous strong
cold waves from late January to early February, there were 6 d of
snowfall at Liyang station in Changzhou. The Beijing–Hangzhou Grand Canal was
frozen from late January to early March (P. Zhang et al., 2011). The Yellow
River and the Bohai Sea were also frozen (Ding, 2008).
Compared to the winter of 1308–1309, there have been a few similarly cold or
even colder winters in modern times. However, it is worth noting that the
extremely cold phenomena (e.g. low temperatures, snow and freezing) in
modern winters have mostly been caused by one or several continuous strong
cold waves. For example, in 1955, temperatures were abnormally low in
January but became relatively normal in February. In 1977, the minimum
temperatures in January and February were both seemingly very low. However,
this is because the strongest cold wave that year occurred between late
January and early February. By contrast, in 1309, there were two extremely
strong cold waves, one in January and another in February. As a result, the
Jiangnan Canal was completely frozen in January, and the number of snowfall
days and snow-cover days were both abnormally high in February. During the
interval of more than 20 d between the two cold waves, there was a notable rise in temperature. It is quite unusual.
The winter of 1308–1309 was abnormally cold. It would have also been rare
even it were to occur amid the modern climatic background. Zheng et al. (2005) analysed the winter temperature anomaly sequence in eastern China
from 1951 to 1995. The results show that the average temperature anomaly of
every 10 years is positively correlated with the temperature anomalies of
abnormally cold years among the 10 years. The correlation coefficient is
0.965, and the significance level is 0.001. Thus, it can be inferred that the
first decade of the 1300s was relatively cold on an interdecadal scale.
Transition from the MWP to the LIA in the early 14th century
The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) approximately corresponds to the 9th–13th century in China, i.e. the period from the Five Dynasties period to the early Yuan dynasty (Ge et al., 2013; Man, 1999). In this period, the 13th century was the warmest, comparable to the 20th century (Ge et al., 2002b). The Little Ice Age (LIA) refers to the
cold period following the MWP. Most scholars agree that the LIA began at
least after the 15th century in China, approximately corresponding to
the Ming and Qing dynasties. Hence, the LIA is also referred to as the “the
Little Ice Age of the Ming and Qing dynasties” (Wang, 1995; Wang et al., 2006; Zhang et al., 2013b).
Yunshan Diary was written in the early 14th century when the climate was turning
from the MWP to the LIA. According to the winter-half-year temperature
sequence for eastern China for the past 2 millennia, the most rapid
decrease in temperature (at a rate of 1.4 ∘C per 90 years) occurred between the mid- and late-13th century and the early 14th century. The 30 years between 1290 and 1320 were the key period when the temperature anomaly turned from positive to negative (Ge et al., 2002a, b). The northern planting boundary of citrus recorded in Yunshan Diary was notably further south than that in the mid-13th century. This demonstrates that on a multidecadal scale, the climate in the early 14th century was no longer as warm as that at the height of the MWP. In northern China, cold disasters, such as snowstorms, have been frequent since the 14th century (Hao et al., 2009). These pieces of evidence reflect the continuous climate-cooling process when the MWP was turning to the LIA.
Advantages and disadvantages of climate records in ancient diaries
Compared to other types of documentary data used in climate reconstruction,
the records in private diaries have the following advantages. (1) Diaries
are reliable and veracious. This is because the content of a diary is the
author's own experience, written at the time when things occurred. In
addition, diary authors did not need to take into consideration any other
factors (e.g. political factors) when writing their diaries and were
therefore able to objectively record natural phenomena. (2) The records in
diaries have little uncertainty in time and location. In Yunshan Diary, every record is
accompanied by a clear date. The location can be deduced from the author's
life experience and travel routes, which are recorded in the diary. (3) The
records have a high temporal resolution and can supply daily or even
subdaily weather information. For example, one record in Yunshan Diary reads, “It was sunny and warm in the daytime and rained heavily at night.” (4) Diaries can reflect human interactions with climate, including the impact of climate on humans and the responses of humans to climate. For example, some records in Yunshan Diary show that people changed clothes when it was getting cooler. (5) Diaries are seasonally continuous and complete. By contrast, history books, local gazettes and agricultural books are often focused on climatic characteristics during farming seasons as well as meteorological events that affected agriculture and social stability (Adamson, 2015; Gong et al., 1983a; Linderholm and Molin, 2005; Pfister et al., 1999; Pillatt, 2012; Zhang et al., 2007a).
Private diaries also have some disadvantages. (1) Diaries are relatively
subjective. Owing to personal experience and character, authors differ in
their attention and sensitivity to weather. (2) Diaries often have problems
of missing records and changes in the record location. These problems are
notable in Yunshan Diary. Due to location inconsistencies, it is impossible to
reconstruct continuous climate series. Only the time periods with consistent
locations are selected for analysis. (3) Diaries cover short periods of
time. Limited by the life span and living conditions of the author, diary
records cover several months at the shortest and several decades at the
longest (Adamson, 2015; Huang et al., 2013; Pfister et al., 1999, 2008).
In summary, in historical climate research, private diaries are suitable for
reconstructing short-term, high-resolution climate series, extreme climatic
events and specific meteorological processes. They are also useful in
studying the impact of climate on human lives and the responses of humans to
climate. In addition, diaries can serve as supplemental data for long-term
climate research.
Conclusions
Private diaries are a main type of documentary evidence for studying historical climate change. They have a number of advantages, including high
veracity and reliability, accurate time and location information, high
temporal resolution, seasonal integrity, and rich content. On the other
hand, private diaries have the limitations of strong subjectivity, short
recording periods, missing records, and location inconsistencies. Therefore,
when extracting records from diaries, it is necessary to carefully examine
and assess the information. Each record should contain three clear elements,
namely, time, location and climatic/weather event. In climate
reconstruction, it is critical to select suitable quantification indices and
research methods, eliminate as much interference from the author's
subjectivity as possible, and highlight objective natural phenomena and
their climatic significance.
Climatic information in diaries mainly includes species distribution
records, phenological records, daily weather descriptions and personal
experiences of meteorological conditions. Species distribution records can
be used as evidence for long-term climate change. Phenological records
reflect interannual climatic characteristics. Daily weather descriptions are
the unique advantages of private diaries and can be used to reconstruct
short-term meteorological processes or high-resolution climate series.
Personal experiences of meteorological conditions are relatively subjective
and can be used to supplement weather descriptions. The comparison of diary
records with modern instrument-measured data or other documentary data can
help clarify their climatic significance.
This article presents a case study of an ancient Chinese diary of the Yuan
dynasty – Yunshan Diary. The records relating to weather and climate in this diary were
extracted, and their climate significance was analysed. The following
conclusions are drawn. (1) In the summer of 1309, the precipitation was low
in central and southern Jiangsu Province. This region also suffered from a
locust plague. (2) The winter of 1308–1309 was abnormally cold. In this
winter, there were at least four cold waves in the TLB. In January 1309, the
Jiangnan Canal was completely frozen, and the minimum temperature might have
reached -13∘C. In February 1309, there were 8 consecutive
days of snowfall and 10 consecutive days of snow cover in the
Zhenjiang–Changzhou region, both of which are far greater than modern
averages. (3) In the early 14th century at the latest, the climate in
eastern China had begun to turn cold. This reflects the transition from the
MWP to the LIA.
Data availability
All the data used to perform the analysis in this study are described and properly referenced in the paper. Yunshan Diary is available in A Series of Diaries of the Jin and Yuan Dynasties published
by Shanghai Bookstore Publishing House (Gu and Li, 2013). Most of the modern
meteorological data are available from the China Meteorological Data Service
Center (2020a, b, c).
Author contributions
SC collected data, calculated statistics and performed most of the analysis with guidance of YS. YS designed the research method, supervised the study and assisted with interpreting the results. XF had the idea for the study, defined the outline of this manuscript and made some revisions. SC and JH made the figures and drafted the manuscript. All authors participated in the analysis, provided critical feedback and helped to improve the article.
Competing interests
The author declares that there is no conflict of interest.
Special issue statement
This article is part of the special issue “International methods and comparisons in climate reconstruction and impacts from archives of societies”. It is not associated with a conference.
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank all colleagues in our research group in Beijing
Normal University, who provided valuable discussions and suggestions. We
would like to thank the anonymous reviewers and editors for their valuable
comments.
Financial support
This research has been supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 41771572) and the National Key Research and Development Program of China (grant no. 2018YFA0605602).
Review statement
This paper was edited by Sam White and reviewed by two anonymous referees.
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