The Mediterranean region and the
Levant have returned some of the clearest evidence of a climatically dry
period occurring around 4200 years ago. However, some regional evidence is
controversial and contradictory, and issues remain regarding timing,
progression, and regional articulation of this event. In this paper, we review
the evidence from selected proxies (sea-surface temperature, precipitation,
and temperature reconstructed from pollen, δ18O on
speleothems, and δ18O on lacustrine carbonate) over the
Mediterranean Basin to infer possible regional climate patterns during the
interval between 4.3 and 3.8 ka. The values and limitations of
these proxies are discussed, and their potential for furnishing information
on seasonality is also explored. Despite the chronological uncertainties,
which are the main limitations for disentangling details of the climatic
conditions, the data suggest that winter over the Mediterranean involved drier
conditions, in addition to already dry summers. However, some exceptions to
this prevail – where wetter conditions seem to have persisted – suggesting
regional heterogeneity in climate patterns. Temperature data, even if sparse,
also suggest a cooling anomaly, even if this is not uniform. The most common
paradigm to interpret the precipitation regime in the Mediterranean – a
North Atlantic Oscillation-like pattern – is not completely satisfactory to
interpret the selected data.
Introduction
In recent years, it has become paradigmatic that the Holocene was a
relatively stable climatic epoch when compared to
the last glacial period e.g.,. However, long-term,
astronomically driven changes in insolation produced changes in temperature
but see also Marsicek et al., 2018, associated with a
progressive southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and
a weakening of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon systems
e.g.,. A number of short,
multidecadal- to centennial-scale climatic events, the origin of which often
remains unclear, are superimposed over this long-term trend
e.g.,. At the
regional-to-global scale, some events appear synchronous and linked to
specific changes in circulation patterns
e.g.,. A good example is the
Medieval Climate Anomaly in the Atlantic region, which has been explained in
terms of an anomalously persistent positive mode of the North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO) . However, the synchronicity and
therefore the origin of many such events remain challenging. A major and
much-discussed example of a multidecadal- to century-scale event is the
so-called “4.2 ka BP Event”. The detection of this event over an
extensive region, and its common expression as an interval of cooling and
drying e.g.,, points to a global
“megadrought” . The significance of the climate
event at 4.2 ka at the global scale has been accepted recently as the formal
boundary of Late and Middle Holocene at 4250 ka b2k
(http://www.stratigraphy.org/, last access: 11 March 2019). Despite its
near-pervasive recognition, the timing, duration, and progression of this
event have yet to be defined in detail, whilst its origin in terms of changes
in ocean and atmospheric circulation remains elusive
. Moreover, not all the
palaeoclimate records preserve evidence of the 4.2 ka BP
Event, at least as
a prominent feature of the Late Holocene
e.g., and not necessarily as a
cold and dry event e.g.,. Some researchers have
suggested that this event is best described as a complex succession of
dry/wet events, rather than a single long, dry event
, further complicating the matter. The
Mediterranean region shows some of the most consistent evidence of the
4.2 ka BP Event. It is mostly recognized as a dry interval and is
identified in pollen records
e.g.,, speleothems
, lakes
e.g.,, and marine sediments
e.g.,. However, the chronology of the event is
not precisely defined and, in many records, the event is not evident
, challenging the view of a generalized period of
significant drought. In this paper, we review the evidence, nature and
chronology of the 4.2 ka BP Event in the Mediterranean region by comparing
different marine and terrestrial proxy records. This will serve to identify
gaps in the regional coverage, to expose aspects that should be addressed in
future research on this topic, and to determine if coherent
regional/subregional climatic patterns are present, what their links are to
regions further afield, and if such patterns can be plausibly explained in a
coherent meteoclimatic framework.
Location of selected records discussed in the text. For the numbers
and references, refer to Table 1. The dotted red line corresponds to the limit of
the growth of olive trees, taken as a rough indication of Mediterranean climate.
Methods and terminology
In this paper, we use the term “4.2 ka BP Event” to indicate a period of
time between approximately 4.3 and 3.8 ka cal BP (close to the definition of
, whilst being mindful that this does not
necessarily correspond to the true temporal evolution of the climatic event
but the chronological interval where often this event is recognized. We have
considered a large set of records for this review. In the end, the records
selected for inclusion are those possessing robust age models and
high-resolution time series (i.e., at least subcentennial). It has been
recognized that chronology for some Mediterranean records could be
problematic, as demonstrated, for instance, using tephra layers as
chronological points .
However, in the absence of these chronological control points, the question
of exclusion or inclusion of records involves a degree of subjectivity. For
example, we argue that only records dated by radiocarbon using terrestrial
remains should be selected. Marine records dated using radiocarbon on
foraminifera can show millennial-scale change of the reservoir effect
, and different degrees of bioturbation, which can
complicate comparisons between different archives. Some speleothem records,
dated in the past with uranium–thorium (U–Th) methods, have chronologies
inconsistent with more recent accurate age determinations e.g., Grotta
di Ernesto;. However, to have a wide regional
coverage with proxy records, we have also included records with relatively
low resolution and with age control that is not necessarily optimal. With
this in mind, we are also aware that our selection of records could appear
incomplete for some archives/proxies. Among a copious number of data showing,
even if with different expression, the 4.2 ka BP Event and its impact in
the Mediterranean Basin
e.g.,, we have
decided to select only the proxies that can give, in our opinion, more
complete information on the hydrological variability like oxygen isotope
composition of continental carbonates e.g., and on the
temperature conditions at regional scale, as reconstructed by pollen data and
marine proxies . It is obvious that many
archives are suitable for a multiproxy approach, but some proxies can be
related more to local processes and correlate with climatic variables less
directly than others can. Moreover, it would be useful to use similar proxies
in different environments, even if they do not necessarily have the same
meaning . We must also consider that the scale and
longevity of human activity around the Mediterranean may create locally
serious difficulties in distinguishing climate change from human impact
(e.g., deforestation, erosion) in many proxy records of past environmental
change . The 4.2 ka BP Event in
the Mediterranean (including the Levant) is strictly related to complex
societal evolution and development at the basin scale
, and care is necessary in interpreting proxy
records where local factors override regional climate changes. Pollen records
are surely one of the most important sources of information on past
environment in the Mediterranean and they will be used in this review, but
they are one of the proxies that have been suggested to be seriously
compromised by human activity e.g.,.
Given the importance of having estimates of past temperature and
precipitation reconstruction, we have selected pollen-based quantitative
reconstructions e.g.,. In terrestrial archives, in
addition to pollen data, we selected the oxygen isotope composition of
lacustrine carbonates and speleothems as the main proxies of past climate due
to their potential for preserving strong hydrological signals
. For marine records,
sea-surface temperature (SST) reconstruction was preferred to oxygen isotope
composition of planktonic foraminifera, for the unavoidable limitation of the
latter to represent the mixing signal of temperature and changes in local
seawater isotopic composition (i.e., salinity). These are the main proxies
considered for our reconstruction: they show the largest coverage and the
most complete, in our opinion, climate information. These proxies also
permit, to some extent, the disentanglement of climate signals between the
cooler and warmer seasons, as we will propose. We are aware that there are
limitations in this, but it is necessary to understand more details about the
4.2 ka BP Event. There are other proxies which can give potentially further
important information, like lake-level changes
and, although discontinuous, isotopes on paleosols
or paleofloods
. Although rare, dust records appear of particular
relevance in informing about past circulation patterns and hydrological
conditions e.g.,. However, these records still have
low regional coverage and will only be referred to briefly in the discussion.
Selected archives and proxies
Table 1 and Fig. 1 show the complete list of selected records, including the
original references and the proxies considered.
Sites and proxy records selected in this paper for investigating the
4.2 ka BP Event. Resolution is reported only for selected proxies and is
intended as the average during the Holocene.
No.Site (archive)ProxyResolution (years)*RegionReferenceCaves 1Soreq Caveδ18O16IsraelAlmogi-Labin et al. (2009); Bar-Matthews and Ayalon (2011)2Jeita Caveδ18O16LebanonCheng et al. (2015)3Solufar Caveδ18O8TurkeyGöktürk et al. (2011)4Skala Marion Caveδ18O20GreecePsomiadis et al. (2018)5Mavri Trypa Caveδ18O6GreeceFinné et al. (2017)6Ascunsa Caveδ18O55Romania7Poleva Caveδ18O76RomaniaConstantin et al. (2007)8Corchia Caveδ18O, Mg/Ca12ItalyRegattieri et al. (2014); Zanchetta et al. (2007)9Renella Caveδ18O, Mg/Ca9ItalyDrysdale et al. (2006); Zanchetta et al. (2016)10Grotta di Ernestoδ18O–ItalyScholz et al. (2012)11Kaite Caveδ18O10SpainDominguez-Villar et al. (2017)12Ejulve Caveδ18O, Mg/Ca13SpainMoreno et al. (2017)13Molinos Caveδ18O, Mg/Ca17SpainMuñoz et al. (2015)14Cueva de Asiulδ18O15SpainSmith et al. (2016)15Grotte de Pisteδ18O, Mg/Ca15MoroccoWassenburg et al. (2016)16Gueldaman Caveδ18O13AlgeriaRuan et al. (2016)Lakes 17Lake Mirabadδ18O end. calcite258IranStevens et al. (2006)18Lake Zeribarδ18O end. calcite188IranStevens et al. (2001)19Lake Vanδ18O end. calcite90TurkeyWick et al. (2003)20Lake Acıgölδ18O end. calcite88TurkeyRoberts et al. (2001)21Nar Gölüδ18O end. calcite/aragonite19TurkeyDean et al. (2015)22Lake Gölhisarδ18O end. calcite97TurkeyEastwood et al. (2007)23Lake Dojranδ18O end. calcite89Republic of MacedoniaFrancke et al. (2013)24Ioannina (Lake Pamvotis)δ18O ostracod149GreeceFrogley et al. (2001); Roberts et al. (2008)25Lake Prespaδ18O end. calcite157Republic of MacedoniaLeng et al. (2010)26Lake Ohridδ18O end. calcite38Republic of MacedoniaLacey et al. (2015)27Lake Shkodraδ18O end. calcite28Albania/MontenegroZanchetta et al. (2012)28Lago del Frassinoδ18O freshwatermollusk136ItalyBaroni et al. (2006)29Lake Hulaδ18O end. calcite287IsraelStiller and Hutchinson (1980)30Laguna de Medinaδ18O ostracod130SpainRoberts et al. (2008)31Lake Sidi Aliδ18O ostracod; dust record144MoroccoZielhofer et al. (2017a, b)32Lake Tiguelmamineδ18O ostracod278MoroccoRoberts et al. (2008)
Continued. “P” indicates precipitation and “T” indicates temperature.
No.Site (archive)ProxyResolution (years)*RegionReferencePollen 33AcrePollen (P, T)85IsraelKaniewski et al. (2013)34MaliqPollen (P, T)87AlbaniaBordon et al. (2009);Peyron (this paper)35Lake PergusaPollen (P, T)154ItalySadori et al. (2013); Peyron et al. (2017)36Lago TrifogliettiPollen (P, T)73ItalyPeyron et al. (2013)37Lago dell'AccesaPollen (P, T)97ItalyPeyron et al. (2013)38LedroPollen (P, T)66ItalyPeyron et al. (2013)39BurmarradPollen (P, T)138Aegean SeaGambin et al. (2016); Peyron et al. (2017)40SL152Pollen (P)76Aegean SeaDormoy et al. (2009); Peyron et al. (2017)41MD95-2043Pollen (P)106Alboran SeaPeyron et al. (2017)42ODP-976Pollen (P)129Alboran SeaDormoy et al. (2009); Peyron et al. (2017)Marine 41MD95-2043Alkenone SST110Alboran SeaCacho et al. (2001)42ODP-976Alkenone SST, Mg/Ca SST34Alboran SeaMartrat et al. (2014); Jimenez-Amat and Zahn (2015)43KSGC-31Alkenone SST15Gulf of LionJalali et al. (2016)44BS79-38Alkenone SST59Tyrrhenian SeaCacho et al. (2001)45M25/4-KL11Alkenone SST260Ionian SeaEmeis et al. (2000)46M40/4-SL78Alkenone SST160Ionian SeaEmeis et al. (2000)47MD90-917Alkenone SST40Adriatic SeaEssallami et al., 200748AD91-17Alkenone SST190Adriatic SeaGiunta et al. (2001)49GeoB 7702-3Alkenone SST210Levantine BasinCastaneda et al. (2010)50ODP 160-967DAlkenone SST94Levantine BasinEmeis et al. (2000)51MD04-2726Alkenone SST57Nile prodeltaJalali et al. (2017)Other records 52Mohos BogDust recordRomaniaLongman et al. (2017)53Petit LacDetrital fractionFranceBrisset et al. (2013)54Scǎrişoara Ice CaveD excess in iceRomaniaPerşoiu et al. (2017)55Alìmini PìccoloPollenItalyDi Rita and Magri (2009)56Gemini LakeJuly TItalySamartin et al. (2015)57Lake MezzanoPollenItalySadori (2018)58Lakes Albano and NemiPollenItalyMercuri et al. (2002)59Calderone glacierGlacier recordItalyZanchetta et al. (2012b)60Lake QarunLake levelEgyptMarks et al. (2018)61BP-06Storminess recordFranceSabatier et al. (2012)62TunisiaFlood recordTunisZielhofer and Faust (2008)
* Average resolution during the Holocene.
Selected speleothem δ18O records. For
location, refer to Fig. 1 and for references to Table 1.
Speleothems
The number of speleothem records covering the Holocene with appropriate
resolution has dramatically increased in recent years, although they are
geographically unevenly distributed
e.g.,. Multiple proxies obtained from
speleothem calcite are often interpreted as hydrological indicators and, in
particular, the oxygen isotope composition (δ18O) is the most
common proxy utilized . In the Mediterranean Basin, in
many instances, the δ18O records are seen as an indicator of
the amount of precipitation recharging the cave the so-called “amount
effect”;, with higher
(lower) δ18O values of calcite indicating drier (wetter)
conditions. This is true only when considered in terms of long-term changes
in the isotopic composition of seawater sources of the precipitation
“source effect”; e.g.,. The interpretation of the
δ18O record as an indicator of hydrological changes is
supported, in some instances, by other proxies like trace elements
which should be more
common in the future. More refined interpretations indicate that the
δ18O composition of cave recharge is in some cases related to
NAO , even if
investigations of δ18O composition of precipitation do not
always reproduce a fidelity with NAO pressure patterns
. suggest that most
of the isotopic signal in Iberian speleothems is not principally related to
the amount of precipitation but rather to changes in the ratio of recycled
precipitation, and is correlated to pressure patterns over the North
Atlantic. Therefore, some authors suggest that the δ18O of the
speleothem calcite is a direct expression of the North Atlantic influence and
state, especially in the western Mediterranean
e.g., during winter months. However, a
change in provenance of precipitation and precipitation
amount during winter and summer months can further complicate the
interpretation of the δ18O records. Therefore, a unifying and
completely satisfactory explanation for δ18O of calcite is
probably not yet available throughout the Mediterranean area and surrounding
regions . It is important also to remember that the
δ18O signal is skewed towards the period of calcite
precipitation and its relation with cave recharge. As anticipated, the authors
tend to assume that most of the cave recharge occurs during winter (or
autumn–winter) and most of the δ18O signal should be related
to this condition . In some instances, the complex
interpretation of δ18O as a direct climatic proxy has led
different authors to prefer δ13C of speleothem calcite as
a better hydrological indicator of local conditions
e.g.,. The number of factors influencing the
final δ13C value of a speleothem
e.g., make this proxy probably just as, if not
more, complicated as δ18O, and in addition, for the strong
influence of soil-CO2 production on the final 13C/12C
ratio on speleothems, a change in land use and deforestation can have a
particularly prominent effect, making it particularly sensitive to human
impact above and within the cave. It is usually reported that speleothems
possess a superior chronology compared to other archives thanks to the U–Th
technique e.g.,. However, this assumption is
strictly true for speleothems acting as a closed system for the uranium
and with only minor clastic contamination
. For this review, we have selected 16 records (Fig. 2;
Table 1). The main reason for excluding some records is the presence of long
hiatuses (thousands of years) over the 4.2 ka BP Event that may not necessarily
relate to climatic conditions, e.g., Villars, Chauvet, and La Mine
caves and Carburangeli Cave . Some records
have been rejected for their U–Th chronologies, as shown in later studies
e.g., Savi Cave;, with ages disputed in .
However, shorter hiatuses coherent with isotopic changes are considered here
as evidence of particularly dry and potentially cooler climate conditions
i.e., Mavri Trypa Cave;. In this regard,
interpreted the growth cessation of many speleothems at approximately 4.1 ka in
northwest Spain to be caused by increased aridity since this time. However, this is a
general signal and not specifically related to a short interval, suggesting
that eventual increasing in aridity during the 4.2 ka BP Event is within a
general frame of increasing aridification.
Lacustrine settings
The oxygen isotope composition of lacustrine carbonates in the Mediterranean
region is usually interpreted as mainly being controlled by changes in the
isotopic composition of lake water , which is controlled
by different factors, including changes in the isotopic composition of
precipitation and the degree of evaporation .
Each lacustrine setting has a different set of responses and different water
18O enrichment due to
evaporative effects, which depend on several factors, namely temperature,
relative humidity, wind fetch and strength, and residence time of body water
e.g.,. Different types of carbonates (e.g.,
ostracods, freshwater shells, bio-induced carbonates) may precipitate during
different parts of the year, with bio-induced calcite (endogenic) often
related to spring–summer algal bloom . Therefore,
the δ18O of endogenic carbonate will tend to be weighted
towards the summer conditions, although care is necessary for their
interpretation and more complex options have been proposed
e.g.,. Endogenic carbonates can be contaminated by
clastic carbonates and/or early diagenetic minerals
i.e., siderite;, which can degrade the paleoclimate
signal and must be carefully evaluated case by case. Despite these possible
complications, trends toward higher (lower) δ18O values are
generally explained as an indication of drier (wetter) conditions
.
Reduction in general lake recharge and particularly arid conditions during
the warmer part of the year favor higher δ18O values of
endogenic carbonate. As is the case of speleothem records, lacustrine
δ18O records are unevenly distributed over the Mediterranean
Basin (Fig. 1, Table 1) and this represents an important limitation to
regional interpretations. Following the list proposed in the important review
of , very few new lacustrine records have been added
since, e.g., Lake Ohrid , Lake Prespa
, Lake Yammouneh , Lake Shkodra
, and Sidi Ali . Some of the
records reported in and some new records that were too
short or with too-low resolution or poor chronologic accuracy (e.g., Lake
Pergusa, ; Valle di Castiglione,
; Lake Yammouneh, )
have been excluded from this
review. We have to note that some records (particularly in the past) used
different kinds of organic matter and carbon (i.e., shells) for radiocarbon
dating e.g.,, which can be affected by different
reservoir and hard-water effects of unknown amount, leading to significant
offsets between records. Figure 3 shows the selected lacustrine records.
Selected lacustrine δ18O records. For location, refer
to Fig. 1 and for references to Table 1.
Marine records
For marine records, we selected SST. Figure 4 shows
a compilation of 12 published SST records from
coastal and deep-sea sites of the Mediterranean Sea. Apart from Fig. 4b,
which is based on the Mg/Ca ratios in planktonic foraminifera
Globigerina bulloides, all the records are based on alkenone
paleothermometry. As for other archives, the comparison of multiple proxies
and site compilation require consideration of potential seasonal biases
. Maximum production of alkenones in the Ligurian,
Alboran, and Adriatic seas would take place mainly in spring and autumn
, while in other sub-basins,
such as the Balearic Sea and the Bannock Basin, primary production exhibits a
less clear pattern, with maximum algal blooms during spring
. However, several high-resolution
alkenone-derived SST records, which overlap with the post-industrial period and
allow comparison with SST observations, highlight a consistent match between
alkenone SST and average annual sea-surface temperature
. The
single Mg/Ca SST record from the Alboran Sea is mainly believed to
reflect spring SSTs . observe
that modern regional oceanographic data indicate that Globigerina bulloidesMg/Ca is mainly controlled by SST of April–May related to
the primary bloom productivity.
Selected SSTs (∘C). For location,
refer to Fig. 1 and for references to Table 1.
Pollen data
The selection of pollen data is probably more complex considering the
elevated number of the sedimentary successions analyzed over the basin and in
different settings (marine and lacustrine cores). Using only records with
acceptable resolution i.e., resolution chronologically higher than
the interval considered;, with the reconstruction of precipitation
and temperature, the number of records is, however, strongly reduced. The
basic assumption in the pollen-based climate reconstructions (assemblage
approach or transfer function) is that modern-day observations and
relationships can be used as a model for past conditions and that the
pollen–climate relationships have not changed with time .
Among the main approaches available to quantitatively reconstruct past
climate from pollen data, most of the selected records have been performed
using the modern analogue technique (MAT) , an “assemblage
approach” frequently used in climate reconstructions. This method was
successfully used for the Holocene climate reconstructions from terrestrial
and marine records e.g.,. MAT is based on a
comparison of past assemblages to modern pollen assemblages. An important
requirement is the need for a high-quality training set of modern samples. The
training set should be representative of the likely range of variables, of
highest possible taxonomic detail, of comparable quality and from the same
sedimentary environment . It must cover a wide
environmental range. Limitations of using MAT are the occurrence of no
analogues or multiple analogues , and the potential problem
of the spatial autocorrelation with MAT but also in the transfer
functions . All these interpretations hold if minor
human impact is considered in vegetation and pollen production, which may be
a major concern for some reconstructions . Figure 5
shows the reconstructed temperatures (annual) and precipitation (annual,
winter, and summer) through the 4.2 ka BP Event.
Selected temperature (T, ∘C)
and precipitation (P, mm year-1) records obtained from pollen records. Tma: mean annual
temperature; Pma: mean annual precipitation; PS: average summer
precipitation; PW: average winter precipitation. For location, refer to
Fig. 1 and for references to Table 1.
Compilation of pollen records containing the Avellino tephra layer
dated at approximately 3.8 ka; for review, see. All
the records are plotted with their original age model: Lago dell'Accesa
; Lago di Mezzano ; Lago
Albano and Lago di Nemi ; RF93-30 .
For core RF93-30, the correlation with Avellino tephra is not certain
.
DiscussionChronology: the Achilles heel of the problem
The first general observation is that, for many of the records, chronological
uncertainties and different, and sometimes poor, chronological resolution are
the main obstacles in the precise identification of the event, its timing,
duration, and progression. At this stage, both aspects seem to be an
unavoidable limitation for an in-depth understanding of this interval. For
example, we show selected pollen records (arboreal pollen, AP %) containing
the Avellino tephra plotted with their published age model (Fig. 6) in the
central Mediterranean. Quite apparent are the century-scale differences in
age models presented, considering the well-constrained ages of this tephra
layer (approximately 3.8 ka; see discussion and references in
. It is reasonable to assume that similar levels of
uncertainties may be present in other records. We note that, in Fig. 6, the
identification of the 4.2 ka BP Event appears problematic (at least using AP %
signal), which is not in the case for other pollen records in Italy
, the Iberian Peninsula
e.g.,, or the Levant
e.g.,. Interestingly, some records may
suggest that the 4.2 ka interval is characterized by several important
oscillations rather than one simple long interval of specific (usually drier)
climatic conditions (see, for instance, Skala Marion and Solufar or
GLD1 in Fig. 2, or SST in the Gulf of Lion and Alboran Sea in Fig. 4), as it has
been suggested for other parts of the world and in this
issue . However, there is no clear and coherent evidence
of this in many of the different selected records. A good example of the
complexity of the evidence and the link to chronological accuracy is the
lake-level record at Lago dell'Accesa. This was used as the archetypal example to
demonstrate that, in reality, the event is “tripartite” ,
where a phase characterized by drier conditions at approximately 4100–3950 cal BP
appeared bracketed by two phases marked by wetter conditions and dated to approximately
4300–4100 and 3950–3850 cal BP, respectively .
reported a significant number of records over the
Mediterranean showing reasonably the same climatic evidence. However,
subsequent works using tephra layers Avellino and other tephras are
present in Lago dell'Accesa; showed the inconsistency of this
detailed correlation, and the 4.2 ka BP Event should be dominated by lower lake
level , supporting the
existence of a prominent drier phase. To circumvent some of the complex
issues related to chronological problems, the authors have used two different
approaches. The first, and the most common, is an accurate selection of
records which show conspicuous and chronologically consistent evidence of the
event e.g.,. Records in which
the expression of the event is equivocal are usually removed. A different
approach is more “climatostratigraphic”, which is used instead of a simple
chronological selection of a time window to correlate the event on the basis
of similarity of the climatic curve. This has the obvious limitation that any
regional articulation and/or timing progression will be lost. For instance,
we can force the correlation of Skala Marion δ18O record with
those of the Renella, Mavri Trypa, and Solufar caves Fig. 7; for
instance,implicitly followed this approach in their Fig. 6, for Skala
Marion, Renella, and Solufar cave records, to assume that the
interval at approximately 3.9–3.4 ka characterized by higher δ18O
values at Skala Marion corresponds to a similar interval at approximately 4.3–3.8 ka
that is well identified in Renella and Mavri Trypa. Therefore, we are aware that the
chronological issue can heavily contaminate the following discussion. In the
following sections, we separate proxies on the basis of their presumed
meaning: annual average vs. seasonal component. Maps are produced (Fig. 8)
specifying the local record condition (i.e., warmer/cooler and/or
drier/wetter). For reasons that may depend on chronology, proxy sensitivity,
and/or local response to climatic change, it is not always obvious to define
the specific environmental conditions of the considered interval. In some
instances, changes lasted longer than the interval considered, or during the
interval there is a clear change in conditions, or the interval is
characterized by invariant conditions and/or by trends. Once again, some
margin of subjectivity may have existed in the evaluation of a single record.
Generally, for each site, if most of the interval is dominated by specific
conditions (wetter, drier, colder, and/or warmer), this is represented in the
maps accordingly. If the environmental trend moves toward a specific state,
the site is defined by this trend (e.g., if the trend during the interval is
toward drier conditions, the site is deemed “drier” during the event).
Ambiguities are still possible and are indicated where appropriate.
The annual average conditions
Based on SST and pollen reconstructions, it is possible to gain some insights
on the average conditions during the 4.2 ka interval (Fig. 8a and b). As can
be seen from Fig. 4, SST records from 8000 to 2000 BP show strong
differences in their temporal resolution. Some poorly resolve the 4.2 ka BP
Event (e.g., Fig. 4d, e). In the Alboran Sea cores, MD95-2043 and ODP-976 show
substantially invariant alkenone temperatures, despite their rather high
resolution, whereas the Mg/Ca SSTs record from the Alboran Sea
ODP-976, Fig. 4b; documents a cooling during
spring rather than the mean annual conditions. The cooling in the Alboran Sea
has been confirmed by high-resolution Mg/Ca SST by .
The alkenone SSTs from the Gulf of Lion (Fig. 4c) indicate
several SST oscillations with some important cooling in the final part of the
interval. BS79-38 in the Tyrrhenian Sea (Fig. 4d) shows essentially invariant SSTs, whereas in the Ionian Sea, cores
M25/Kl11 and M40/4-SL78 (Fig. 4f), despite their low resolution, show an
opposite trend. In the Adriatic Sea, an apparent modest warming is present
only in core AD91-17 . In the Levantine Basin, an apparent
general tendency for cooling seems to be present in core GeoB7702-3
(Fig. 4g) ,
after a phase of warming even if the interval considered comprises the
descending part of a longer SST trend. In the Nile prodelta area, a warmer
interval seems to be present in core MD04-2726
(Fig. 4h) , even
if with some oscillations. Figure 5 shows reconstructed annual average
temperatures in different parts of the basin using pollen records. Most of
the central Mediterranean records (except Lago Trifoglietti, which shows some
intermediate behavior, with a tendency of warming) show a cooling at this
time. Lake Maliq shows a long-term cooling, rather a precise interval of
cooling. In contrast, in the Acre record, there is first a period of warmer
conditions, followed by a later period with a prominent cooling, and this
trend, according to , is consistent with other sites in
the eastern Mediterranean. Figure 8a shows that the few records selected show
generally lower average temperatures in the western–central Mediterranean,
whereas towards the eastern part higher temperatures seem to prevail. Annual
precipitation estimated from pollen shows several records with clear evidence
of reduced precipitation (Maliq, Lake Pergusa, Lago Trifoglietti, Acre), even
if this signal is generally complex (Fig. 5), with part of the selected
records not suggesting drier conditions (e.g., Malta, SL152, MD95-2043).
Indeed, Fig. 8b highlights that poor data coverage for estimating past annual
precipitation prevents any detailed considerations.
Chronologic approach (green field) and climatostratigraphic approach
(yellow field) applied on speleothem
records based on: Renella Cave
after; Mavri Trypa Cave after;
Skala Marion Cave after; Solufar Cave
after.
Maps of (a) annual average temperature, (b) annual average
precipitation, (c) winter precipitation, and (d) summer
precipitation. See Figs. 2–5 and Table 1 for data. Circles indicates data
from pollens, lozenges indicate data from alkenones, squares indicate data
from speleothems, and triangles indicate data from the
lake. Meaning of filled symbols: blue indicates colder conditions, red indicates
warmer conditions, yellow indicates drier conditions, green indicates wetter conditions,
and grey indicates unchanged conditions; unfilled symbols: symbols with a red border indicate
likely warmer conditions, those with a yellow border indicate likely drier conditions, and those with
a green border indicate likely wetter conditions.
Winter records
In this reconstruction, we have included speleothems and pollen data, whilst
being aware of the limitations discussed in Sect. 2.1.1 and 2.1.4. Most of
the records indicate drier conditions in winter during the 4.2 ka BP Event.
Speleothems are the most conspicuous record. Qualitatively, 6 out 15 records
show that during the considered interval there is a clear increase in
δ18O values (Fig. 2; Jeita, Ascunsa, Poleva, Mavri Trypa,
Renella, and Gueldaman caves). Soreq and Corchia can be added to this group
(stalagmite CC26), showing a modest increase of values at that time. Two
caves (Grotte de Piste and Kaite) show a clear
interval of decreasing δ18O values (Fig. 2). Solufar and Skala
Marion show a similar pattern of oscillating behavior, with an important part
of the period characterized by a marked decrease in the δ18O
values. A similar, but not identical, pattern is present in the Iberian
caves, Ejulve and Cueva de Asiul. Invariance defines the Grotta di
Ernesto record. This apparently contradictory behavior is regionally well defined
with the central Mediterranean (Algeria, central Italy, Romania, and western
Greece) and part of the Levant, characterized by the most marked and
significant interval characterized by higher δ18O values.
Instead, the north Iberian Peninsula and north Morocco show a tendency to
lower or oscillating values, as does the opposite end of the basin with the
records from the Solufar and Skala Marion caves. Accepting the fact that
δ18O represents the amount of precipitation during the winter
recharge period, we observe that the central part of the basin, with some
extension to the Balkans and Romania, shows decisively drier conditions
compared to the other analyzed sectors, where they show wetter or at least
more variable conditions. Winter precipitation reconstructed from pollen
shows clear indications of decreased precipitation at Ledro, Lake Pergusa,
MD90-917, and MD95-2043 (even if modest). Drier conditions are evident for
most of the interval at Lago Trifoglietti (with a late recovery toward wetter
conditions), whereas in Malta most of the interval shows wetter conditions
compared to the previous period. Lago dell'Accesa shows a strong oscillatory
behavior, with the central part of the drier interval bracketed by two wetter
intervals. However, the general trend of Lago dell'Accesa cannot be
classified unambiguously as wetter or drier. Figure 8c shows the prevailing
precipitation conditions (wetter/drier for the interval considered) during
winter for the proxy in question. Geographically, it seems quite consistent
that most of the Mediterranean records show drier conditions during winter.
Despite the poor coverage, the possible exceptions are Morocco and the
Iberian Peninsula, as well as some sectors of the eastern Mediterranean,
possibly indicating a regional articulation.
Summer conditions
As discussed in Sect. 2.1.2, endogenic lacustrine carbonates can be
considered reasonably as a first-order hydrological (precipitation minus
evaporation) signal of summer, even if influenced by the effect of recharge
during previous periods. Some records (Sidi Ali, Ohrid, Hula) show no
peculiar trends during the period considered, although for a very short
interval centered at approximately 4.2 ka, observe a
minor oscillation in δ18O values interpreted as increased
winter recharge (Fig. 3). Other records show a clear peak towards more
positive values (Medina, Frassino, Shkodra, Prespa, Dojran, Nar Gölü, Gölhisar),
whereas others show a tendency to decrease values (e.g., Van) or a clear peak
of lower δ18O values (i.e., Ioannina). Instead, Zeribar and
Mirabad records show a trend towards lower δ18O values, even
if the resolution of the two records for this interval is rather poor. A
number of records show a well-marked peak of increasing δ18O
values within the considered interval but show a different duration, possibly
due to differences in age models and resolution. It is surprising to note
that the two sister lakes (Prespa and Ohrid)
exhibit, for this interval,
significantly different trends (Fig. 3). This can be explained by the effect
of higher residence time and more dampened isotopic composition of the lake
water at Lake Ohrid due to its large recharge by karst springs more
than 50 %; in comparison to Lake Prespa .
This renders the latter much more sensitive to hydrological changes, as
demonstrated by its dramatic lowering of lake-level changes in recent years
. Regional, and consistent with Lake Prespa, are
the data from Lake Dojran and Shkodra (Fig. 3), which show drier conditions.
Interestingly, the Ioannina record shows a very marked phase of lower
δ18O values in an almost perfect antiphase with the other
nearby lakes. We note that Ioannina is a record obtained using ostracods;
instead, the others were obtained by measuring the isotopic composition of
endogenic calcite, which may integrate the isotopic signal of a number of
years. Possibly, the Ioannina record intercepts a period of particularly
pronounced snow melting in spring, while the other lakes record a
significantly longer period of evaporated waters during spring/summer.
Progressive trends towards lower values shown by Zeribar and Mirabad are
difficult to interpret because of their relatively low resolution, although
there is regional coherence. Some pollen reconstructions show evidence of
drier conditions (Fig. 5; Ledro, Lago Trifoglietti, SL152-PA, and MD95-2043, even
if the last is within a longer period of summer-reduced precipitation), but
others indicate a tendency towards increasing precipitation and/or are decisively
wetter than the previous interval (Fig. 5; Maliq, Lago dell'Accesa, Lake Pergusa, and
MD95-2043). Figure 8d shows the regional pattern of the considered summer
conditions. Despite the large gaps in record coverage, once again, most of
the records indicate drier conditions, even if, in the central sector (Italian
Peninsula and possibly some sectors of Greece) and in the eastern end, a
tendency toward wetter conditions may exist.
Is a synthesis possible?
The Mediterranean Basin is located in a transitional zone between north
Africa and the Arabian arid regions, dominated by the subtropical high-pressure
system, and central and northern Europe where midlatitude westerly
circulation dominates. The basin is also exposed to the indirect effect of
the Asian and African monsoons in summer and to western Russian/Siberian High
systems in winter e.g.,and references therein.
Therefore, to look for a simple mechanism for explaining the 4.2 ka BP Event is
not a simple task. The uneven distribution of many proxy records, and the
previously discussed concerns on chronology, can make general conclusions and
detailed regional articulation difficult. It is beyond the scope of this
contribution to discuss the detailed mechanism and forcing; however,
considering the discussion made in previous sections regarding the
limitations of proxies and our approach in their interpretation, some
interesting points emerge. Based on Fig. 8a, the average annual temperature
seems to show a tendency of cooling for most of the basin. Even when moving
from west to east, there seems to be an increase in the number of records
showing an increase in temperature, instead of cooling, suggesting a possible
coherent trend. Data for average annual precipitation are sparse and make
syntheses difficult (Fig. 8b). Figure 8c shows the situation regarding winter
precipitation inferred from speleothem δ18O records and pollen
reconstructions. They are of particular relevance for most of the basin,
which is strongly controlled by NAO, in particular in the western and central
parts of the basin , with winter
precipitation being negatively correlated with NAO. On the contrary, areas of
the southeastern Mediterranean show an anticorrelation with western
Mediterranean precipitation, resulting in a seesaw pattern known as the
Mediterranean Oscillation MO; e.g.,. This clearly opens
the possibility that seemingly complex patterns in precipitation are not just
an artifact of the proxies and/or chronology but can be a real and robust
climatic pattern.
Selected additional records to illustrate the general situation over
the basin during the 4.2 ka BP Event. Summer insolation curve at
65∘ N ; NAO index ; storm
activity in the Gulf of Lion ; Renella Cave
; Mohos peat dust flux ;
Scărişoara Ice Cave, d excess in the ice cave ;
probability flood frequency from north Tunisia ;
Sidi Ali dust flux ; clastic input at Petit Lac
; Gemini Lake July temperature
(Northern Apennines) ; Alìmini Pìccolo arboreal
pollen (AP %) record ; Calderone glacier expansion
; Qarun Lake .
On the other hand, the present climatic configuration can have different past
regional expressions due to a combination of multiple factors. Indeed,
antiphasing between different sectors of the Mediterranean Basin has been
found during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age between the
Iberian Peninsula and Turkey, with the latter not the present-day center of
action of the MO . This has also been suggested during
several Late Holocene oscillations including the 4.2 ka BP Event, in
antiphase in the southwestern and the south–central Mediterranean regions
. The pattern described in Fig. 8c, with the main
distribution indicating pervasive drier conditions over most of the
Mediterranean during winter, is consistent as a NAO-like positive mode, where
westerly sourced vapor masses shift northward due to a pronounced Azores
High. NAO positive mode during this period is also supported by the
concentration of terrestrial n-alkanes (TERR-alkanes) in the Gulf of Lion
shelf sediment . However, the presence of a pole of
possibly wetter conditions over Morocco (as indicated by the Grotte de
Piste; Figs. 6 and 8c, and
partly also by Sidi Ali) and the northern Iberian Peninsula, and a less
evident and questionable wetter area in the eastern sector (Solufar and Skala
Marion caves; Fig. 2), suggests a different configuration. Indeed, at Grotte
de Piste, periods
characterized by lower δ18O values have been interpreted as a
period of negative NAO-like conditions , which is also
suggested by other authors for this period e.g.,.
However, this interpretation runs counter to the speleothem evidence from
central Mediterranean indicating drier conditions Renella, Corchia,
and Mavri Trypa;.
Correlation between the December–January–February
NAO index (modified after ) and precipitation amount during negative NAO
conditions. A negative correlation (brown) indicates that during negative
conditions precipitation amounts are lower than usual, while a positive
correlation (green) indicates that, during negative NAO conditions,
precipitation is above average. Yellow circles: records indicating drier
conditions during winter; blue circles: records indicating wetter conditions
during winter (see Fig. 8c).
This is further confirmed by new speleothem data (stable isotopes and trace elements) reported by
, from Apuan Alps in central Italy. Figure 9 shows the NAO
index inferred by ; during the 4.2 ka BP Event, the
NAO is mostly positive, if not particularly prominent, suggesting that NAO
configuration alone would not be particularly useful to interpret this period
of time. Moreover, Fig. 10 shows that a negative NAO-like configuration with
a similar pattern of precipitation like today is unlikely considering the
data of Fig. 8c. It is interesting to note that the distribution of Figs. 8c
and 10 seems to find some similarity with the reconstruction proposed by
during Roman time. According to , the
dominant pattern of variability in humidity between 3.3 and 1.0 ka
shows a seesaw pattern with Spain and Israel on one side and the central
Mediterranean on the other. The patterns in climatic humidity are similar to
precipitation anomalies associated with the east Atlantic/west Russia
pattern, which today represents a secondary mode of precipitation pattern during
winter within the dominance of the NAO pattern
. It is clear that the center of action of the seesaw pattern may
have changed in time with configuration not precisely similar to today. It is
interesting to note that suggested that part of the drier
and cold conditions over the Mediterranean during the 4.2 ka BP Event was caused by
the strengthening and expansion of the Siberian High, which effectively
blocked the moisture-carrying westerlies and enhanced outbreaks of cold and
dry winds. Summer proxies (Fig. 8d) indicate a prolongation of drier
conditions also during the warmer part of the years, suggesting a persistent
Azores High during summer.
However, in the central Mediterranean, some
records indicate a possible increase of precipitation, possibly as incursions
of North Atlantic perturbations, which suggests weakening of the Azores High
for some areas, possibly as an effect of change in its positions
e.g.,. Considering that the position of the ITCZ exerts
a control on summer aridity and the temperature in the Mediterranean Basin
, a southward shift of the ITCZ may
have locally weakened the Azores High, favoring incursion of wetter air from
North Atlantic. A southward shift of the ITCZ during the 4.2 ka BP Event is
supported by several lines of evidence
e.g.,, and this would have an effect on
summer weather over the Mediterranean. have shown a
decrease in Nile Delta flood-driven accretion between approximately 4.4 and
4.1 ka in response to weakening of ITCZ, related to changes in El
Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-type variability. This may indicate an
indirect influence of ENSO variability on climate of the Mediterranean during
4.2 ka BP Event. discussed the influence of the position
of the midlatitude westerly jet (MLWJ) over the winter precipitation in the
Mediterranean. Their modeling indicates a southward shift of the MLWJ during
the second part of the Holocene, with related changes in cyclogenesis over
Mediterranean. The importance in the shift of the position of the MLWJ is
also documented in dust proxy records from the Middle East and east Asia
e.g.,. According to
, evidence from the dust record from the Neor peat mire in
Iran and climate modeling shows that at approximately 4.2 ka there is a migration of
the main axis of the MLWJ towards the Equator allowing the transport of
higher fluxes of dust from west Asia as well as from the northeast Africa. This
indicates a complex but possibly correlated interplay between the ITCZ, MLWJ,
and Mediterranean precipitation. Despite evidence being weak, it is also
reasonable to assume that conditions during summer are also important in
defining the final “feature” of the 4.2 ka BP Event. Evidence of
environmental and climatic deterioration around or coincident with the
4.2 ka BP Event is apparent but chronologically compromised considering a
different selection of records (Fig. 9; see also Fig. 1 and Table 1). Reduced
temperature (Fig. 8a) is also consistent with the start of the Neoglacial over
the Apennines with the first appearance during the Holocene of the Calderone
glacier . Interestingly, exposure ages in the western Alps
also indicate a first “Neoglacial advance” at 4.2 ka .
This is geographically consistent with lower temperatures during summer, as
inferred from chironomids from central Italy Fig. 9;.
Also, on the French side of the Mediterranean Alps, lakes show evidence of
high-frequency environmental instabilities during this period. Rapid
alternation of drop and rise of the lake level are suggested by a switch in the
benthic/planktonic diatom ratio at Lac d'Allos , while at
Petit Lac, more frequent heavy rainfall triggered soil erosion
Fig. 9; and ecosystem shift . This
complex pattern is well explained by oxygen isotope composition performed on
diatom cells of Petit Lac that indicates that the period is marked by drier
mean conditions (in terms of annual lake balance), associated with short-term
heavy rainfall rather than just wetter conditions. This
is in good agreement with the other records of the central Mediterranean.
The pollen records from Alìmini Pìccolo Fig. 9; and
from the Gulf of Gaeta show a prominent decrease in AP,
suggesting drier conditions. Drier conditions can be inferred also from a
multiproxy record from Qarun Lake in the Faiyum Oasis (Egypt; Figs. 1, 9). In
Qarun, the interval between approximately 4.4 and 4.0 ka shows an increase in aridity and
dust supply, as shown by several proxies . In northeastern
Africa, there is further evidence of climate change at about 4.2 ka
associated with the collapse of the ancient Old Kingdom in Egypt and
references therein. Dust deposition increases in the Eastern
Carpathians, as documented by the Mohos peat succession ,
although an increase of clastic material in a peat succession in a volcanic
caldera can be explained also by an increase in local soil erosion. This
phase is marked by a change in the d excess in the ice in the
Scărişoara Ice Cave Carpathian Mountains; Fig. 9;,
suggesting a change in the arrival of cyclones sourced
from the Mediterranean region. The dust record in Sidi Ali Lake (Fig. 9)
suggests a measurable trans-Saharan aridity event, with increased dust
transport at approximately 4.2 ka . Changes in
circulation are also suggested by exotic pollen of cedar, arriving from north
Africa, in some pollen successions of central Italy
e.g.,. Between approximately 4.4 and 4.0 ka, there is
evidence for an increase in storm activity, as documented by several records
in the central Mediterranean ,
possibly suggesting an increase of occasional strong southward incursion of
westerlies. This is not in contrast with a trend towards increased flooding
in central Tunisia in this period correlated with a colder period in the North
Atlantic Fig. 9;.
Final remarks and trajectories of future research
The analyses of many records show that between 4.3 and 3.8 ka
climatic and environmental changes occurred in the Mediterranean Basin. In
many records, it appears evident that an important change in the hydrological
regime occurred, with more arid conditions, but locally this evidence is
confounded. Cooling can be inferred from different records, but this is not a
common feature. Despite contradictions, which is not questioning the evidence
of this event, there is the possibility that it is regionally articulated as
having a locally different climatic expression. This expression would be also
related to different seasonal conditions. From the selected data, the
possibility emerges that this event is in reality marked by some oscillations
which cannot be resolved in an unequivocal way on the basis of available
records. However, regional coverage is still low, even if our record
selection is incomplete. The emerging patterns need to be confirmed by future
research, but well-positioned and well-resolved new records can also change
our view. By comparing the distribution of the selected records with one of the
most important climatic modes like NAO, which impact Mediterranean
climate, in particular in winter, we did not find complete and satisfying
matches. We can agree that different working hypotheses investigating the
role of potential climatic teleconnections can be inferred from single
records or regionally well-constrained groups of records, but none seem
convincing today. However, this review indicates that many pieces of this
complex puzzle are still lacking. Most urgently, new records at a higher
resolution with a firm chronological basis are required.
Data availability
The paper is a review and all the data have been
collected from previous publications either on an open database or by requesting data
directly from the authors. In only one case have data been digitized. In any
case, they have been organized in a series of *.xls files, which can be
obtained by request to MB and GZ.
Author contributions
MB, GZ, and AP conceived the manuscript. MB and GZ organized and
wrote most of the manuscript. In particular MF, RD, and II contributed to the
construction and writing of Sect. 2.1.1; JRD and RC contributed to the
construction and writing of Sect. 2.1.2; BJ, M-AS, IC, and FL contributed to
the construction and writing of Sect. 2.1.3; OP contributed to the
construction and writing of Sect. 2.1.4; FDiR, OP, DM, AM, AMM, and LS
contributed to the selection and interpretation of pollen records; LM, AP,
MB, FW, and CZ contributed to the selection and interpretation of different
proxy records throughout the manuscript. All the co-authors
participated in sharing the data and contributed to the scientific
discussion.
Competing interests
The authors declare that they have no conflict of
interest.
Special issue statement
This article is part of the special issue “The 4.2 ka BP
climatic event”. It is a result of “The 4.2 ka BP Event: An International
Workshop”, Pisa, Italy, 10–12 January 2018.
Acknowledgements
Monica Bini and Giovanni Zanchetta are indebted to the University of Pisa and
Earth Science Department for the support in organizing the workshop “The
4.2 ka BP Event”. Monica Bini and Giovanni Zanchetta's contribution have
also been developed within the frame of the project “Climate and alluvial
event in Versilia: integration of Geoarcheological, Geomorphological,
Geochemical data and numerical simulations” awarded to Monica Bini and
funded by the Fondazione Cassa di Risparmio di Lucca. Leszek Marks and
Fabian Welc were funded by the National Science Centre in Poland (decision
no. DEC-2013/09/B/ST10/02040). Aurel Perşoiu was funded by UEFISCDI
Romania, trough grant no. PN-III-P1-1.1-TE-2016-2210.
Marie-Alexandrine Sicre and Bassem Jalali were financially supported by the
MISTRALS/PaleoMex program. The research leading to this study has received
funding from the French National Research Agency HAMOC project
(ANR-13-BS06-0003). Edited by: Harvey
Weiss Reviewed by: three anonymous referees
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