CPClimate of the PastCPClim. Past1814-9332Copernicus PublicationsGöttingen, Germany10.5194/cp-14-1529-2018The 4.2 ka BP event in the LevantThe 4.2 ka BP eventKaniewskiDaviddavid.kaniewski@univ-tlse3.frMarrinerNickCheddadiRachidGuiotJoëlhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7345-4466Van CampoEliseUniversité Paul Sabatier-Toulouse 3, EcoLab (Laboratoire
d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), Bâtiment 4R1, 118 Route de
Narbonne, 31062 Toulouse cedex 9, FranceCNRS, EcoLab (Laboratoire d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement),
31062 Toulouse cedex 9, FranceInstitut Universitaire de France, Secteur
Biologie-Médecine-Santé, 103 boulevard Saint Michel, 75005 Paris,
FranceCNRS, Laboratoire Chrono-Environnement UMR6249, MSHE Ledoux, USR
3124, Université de Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, UFR ST, 16 Route de
Gray, 25030 Besançon, FranceUniversité Montpellier II, CNRS-UM2-IRD, ISEM, FranceAix-Marseille Université, CEREGE, CNRS, UM34, Europôle de
l'Arbois BP80, 13545 Aix-en-Provence, FranceDavid Kaniewski (david.kaniewski@univ-tlse3.fr)22October20181410152915424July201817July201828September20183October2018This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This article is available from https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/14/1529/2018/cp-14-1529-2018.htmlThe full text article is available as a PDF file from https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/14/1529/2018/cp-14-1529-2018.pdf
The 4.2 ka BP event is defined as a phase of environmental stress
characterized by severe and prolonged drought of global extent. The event is
recorded from the North Atlantic through Europe to Asia and has led
scientists to evoke a 300-year global mega-drought. For the Mediterranean and
the Near East, this abrupt climate episode radically altered precipitation,
with an estimated 30 %–50 % drop in rainfall in the eastern basin. While many
studies have highlighted similar trends in the northern Mediterranean (from
Spain to Turkey and the northern Levant), data from northern Africa and
the central-southern Levant are more nuanced, suggesting a weaker imprint of this
climate shift on the environment and/or different climate patterns. Here, we
critically review environmental reconstructions for the Levant and show that,
while the 4.2 ka BP event also corresponds to a drier period, a different
climate pattern emerges in the central-southern Levant, with two arid phases
framing a wetter period, suggesting a W-shaped event. This is particularly
well expressed by records from the Dead Sea area.
Introduction
While severe climate changes have been recorded during the Holocene (e.g.,
Mayewski et al., 2004; Wanner et al., 2008; Magny et al., 2013; Solomina et
al., 2015; Guiot and Kaniewski, 2015) with uncertain overall effects, one
period of increasing aridity, termed the 4.2 ka BP event (e.g., Weiss, 2016,
2017), has fueled debates on the causal link between climate shifts and
societal upheavals during the Bronze Age (e.g., Finné et al., 2011;
Butzer, 2012; Clarke et al., 2016). The 4.2 ka BP event, which lasted
∼300 years (from 4200 to 3900 cal yr BP), is probably one of
the Holocene's best studied climatic events (e.g., Weiss et al., 1993; Cullen
et al., 2000; deMenocal, 2001; Weiss and Bradley, 2001; Staubwasser and
Weiss, 2006; Weiss, 2017; Manning, 2018; and references therein), although
its chronology may be much wider than traditionally reported, extending from
4500 to 3500 BP (Gasse, 2000; Booth et al., 2005). This phase of aridity,
considered to be of global extent (Booth et al., 2005, 2006; Fisher et al.,
2008; Baker et al., 2009; Wanner et al., 2011, 2015), is now used as a
formal boundary to separate the Middle and Late Holocene (Late Holocene
Meghalayan Age; Walker et al., 2012; Zanchetta et al., 2016; and letter from
the International Union of Geological Sciences). According to Arz et al. (2006), most records show a gradual climate shift rather than a specific
abrupt event. Drought co-occurs with widespread cooling in the North Atlantic from
4300 to 4000 BP, as attested in Iceland (lake Hvítárvatn and lake
Haukadalsvatn; Geirsdóttir et al., 2013; Blair et al., 2015). The event
is also characterized by two short spikes of negative-type North Atlantic
oscillations (NAOs) at 4300 and 3950 BP (Olsen et al., 2012). During this
interval, the Atlantic subpolar and subtropical surface waters cooled by
1 to 2 ∘C (Bond et al., 1997, 2001; Bianchi and McCave,
1999; deMenocal, 2001).
Focusing on the 4.2 ka BP event in the Mediterranean, a detailed
vegetation-based model shows that a significant drop in precipitation began
in the eastern basin at ∼4300 BP. These drier conditions lasted
until 4000 BP with peaks in drought during the period 4300–4200 BP (Guiot
and Kaniewski, 2015). Based on these modeling data (and the selected
datasets), the western Mediterranean does not appear to have been
significantly affected by the precipitation anomaly. A climate model
reported by Brayshaw et al. (2011) also suggests that the eastern
Mediterranean was drier, while the whole Mediterranean exhibited an increase
in precipitation for the period 6000–4000 BP. A bipolar east–west “climate
seesaw” was proposed to explain these contrasting spatiotemporal trends
during the last millennia, with the hydro-climatic schemes across the basin
being mediated by a combination of different climate modes (Roberts et al.,
2012). It has been argued that the 4.2 ka BP event resulted from changes in
the direction and intensity of the cyclonic North Atlantic westerlies,
controlled by the NAO (e.g., Cullen et al., 2002; Kushnir and Stein, 2010;
Lionello et al., 2013). These westerlies modulate moisture transport across
the Mediterranean and western Asia (see full map in Weiss, 2017) and,
in the Mediterranean, interact with the tropical (monsoonal) climatic system
(e.g., Rohling et al., 2002; Lamy et al., 2006; Lionello et al., 2006; Magny
et al., 2009). The “climate seesaw” model further suggests that
precipitation regimes could not have solely been modulated by NAO forcing,
but also by other patterns (e.g., polar Eurasia and the eastern Atlantic–western
Russia) that acted in synergy (see full details in Roberts et al., 2012).
For instance, other climate regimes, such as shifts in the Intertropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ), may also have played roles in mediating climate in
the southern Mediterranean. In the Mediterranean basin, the 4.2 ka BP event could
thus be a combination of different forcing factors (depending on the
location and on seasonality) acting in tandem (e.g., Di Rita et al., 2018).
Even if such hypotheses (Brayshaw et al., 2011; Roberts et al., 2012; Guiot
and Kaniewski, 2015) are based merely on modeling data, they are useful in
trying to understand the geographic dimensions of climate change during this
period and to identify the mechanisms driving this important event.
Geographical location of some of the main Levantine sites discussed in this study.
Nearby sites in Turkey and Egypt are also displayed on the map (see the text for full
references).
Here, we examine several records from the Levant to critically review the
climate context of the 4.2 ka BP event in the eastern Mediterranean (Fig. 1). Our review is based on
the core area of the central-southern Levant
comprising Israel, the West Bank, and Jordan, as well as on the northern Levant with
Syria and Lebanon. Other regions have also been integrated into our
analysis, including Egypt (Nile Delta) and the Red Sea. All data (biotic and
abiotic) were z score transformed to facilitate inter-site comparisons (see
citations for the original curves). The curves were directly drawn using the
original values (when the data were available in open access repositories)
or extracted from the publications when the raw data were not available
(using the software GraphClick). This comprehensive west–east/north–south
review of the Mediterranean data places emphasis on different climate
patterns and climatic modes.
Chronology
The comparison of multiple 4.2 ka BP records involves assumptions
regarding the relative weight of such variables in shaping the final
outcomes and also requires strong evidence regarding the sensitivity of
each proxy to fully record the environmental parameters. Our review also
underscores the importance of robust chronologies in examining the spatial
dimensions of the 4.2 ka BP event and its driving mechanisms. The age model of
some of the climate proxies is built on radiocarbon (14C) chronologies,
with sometimes broad chronological windows due to the 2σ
calibrations. Telford et al. (2004) have previously shown that any single
value, not its intercept or any other calculation, adequately describes the
complex shape of a 14C probability density function and that the use
of the full probability distribution is recommended. Because it is
impossible to critically revaluate each sequence mentioned in this review,
one must refer to the original papers for further information. To reduce the
uncertainties resulting from the calibration of 14C measurements,
high-resolution chronological datasets (e.g., Sharifi et al., 2015; Cheng et
al., 2015) here serve as anchor points for other sequences.
A west–east gradient – northern Mediterranean
While Mediterranean climate models (Brayshaw et al., 2011; Guiot and
Kaniewski, 2015) suggest that the 4.2 ka BP event is best expressed in the
eastern Mediterranean and western Asia, drought nonetheless seems to be
recorded in both western and eastern areas. A short review of the
paleoclimate data from Spain to Turkey puts these drier conditions in a wider
perspective.
In Spain, drier environmental conditions were recorded at several locations
such as the Doñana National Park (Jiménez-Moreno et al., 2015),
Sierra de Gádor (Carrión et al., 2003), Borreguiles de la Virgen
(Jiménez-Moreno and Anderson, 2012), and Lake Montcortès (Scussolini
et al., 2011). Further east, in Italy, several sites such as Renella Cave
(Fig. 2; Drysdale et al., 2006; Zanchetta et al., 2016), Corchia Cave (Fig. 2; Regattieri et al., 2014), and Lake Accesa (Magny et al., 2009; revised
chronology in Zanchetta et al., 2018) clearly point to a drought event. In
Croatia, a drier climate is attested at Lake Vrana (Island of Cres; Schmidt
et al., 2000), Bokanjačko blato karst polje (Dalmatia; Ilijanić et
al., 2018), and at Mala Špilja Cave (island of Mljet; Lončar et al.,
2017). In the Balkan Peninsula, Lake Shkodra (Fig. 2; Albania, Montenegro;
Zanchetta et al., 2012), Lake Prespa (Republics of Macedonia, Albania, and Greece;
Wagner et al., 2010), Lake Ohrid (Republics of Macedonia and Albania; Wagner et
al., 2010), and Lake Dojran (Fig. 2; Macedonia, Greece; Francke et al., 2013;
Thienemann et al., 2017; Rothacker et al., 2018) were also hit by drought,
but of varying intensities. In Albania, a pollen-based model underscores a
moderate decline in precipitation at Lake Maliq (Korçë; Bordon et
al., 2009). In Greece, the Mavri Trypa Cave (Peloponnese; Finné et al.,
2017) and the Omalos Polje karstic depression (Crete; Styllas et al., 2018)
displayed a period of drier conditions centered on the 4.2 ka BP event. In
Turkey, the last “northern geographic step” before the Levant, drought is
suggested at several locations. At Nar Gölü (Dean et al., 2015),
Lake Van (Lemcke and Sturm, 1996; Wick et al., 2003), Gölhisar
Gölü (Eastwood et al., 1999), and Eski Acıgöl (Roberts et al.,
2008), drier conditions seem to prevail.
Paleoclimate series (z score transformed), with the type of climate proxy noted.
The orange vertical band represents the 4.2 ka BP event. From top to bottom: Renella Cave
(Italy; Drysdale et al., 2006; Zanchetta et al., 2016), Corchia Cave (Italy; Regattieri et al., 2014),
Lake Shkodra (Albania and Montenegro; Zanchetta et al., 2012), Lake Dojran (Macedonia and Greece; Francke et al., 2013;
Thienemann et al., 2017), and the eastern Mediterranean
(Kaniewski et al., 2013).
These data from the northern Mediterranean point to a drought episode
broadly correlated with the chronological window of the 4.2 ka BP event.
This climate shift was recently framed by the Agnano–Mt. Spina
(∼4400 BP) and the Avellino tephra layers (∼3900 BP) in cores from the central Mediterranean (Zanchetta et al., 2018).
As a consequence, the chronology of previous paleoenvironmental studies,
including Lake Accesa, have been revised in line with this
tephrostratigraphy (Zanchetta et al., 2018).
Knowledge gaps remain regarding the teleconnections and synergy between
different climate patterns and their relative weight, according to the
geographical location of the sites considered. The potential climate changes
that may have impacted the northern Mediterranean during the 4.2 ka BP event have
been extensively reviewed in the literature (e.g., Drysdale et al., 2006;
Magny et al., 2009; Dean et al., 2015; Zanchetta et al., 2016; Di Rita et
al., 2018) and will be discussed elsewhere in this special issue.
A west–east gradient – southern Mediterranean
Even if the 4.2 ka BP event is clearly delineated in the northern basin, the
southern Mediterranean shows different trends due to the influence of
Saharan climate. While similar dry conditions occurred concurrently in
Morocco (Tigalmamine, Middle Atlas; Lambs et al., 1995; Cheddadi et al.,
1998) and Algeria (Gueldaman GLD1 Cave; Ruan et al., 2016), the same arid
conditions led to enhanced sediment delivery mediated by flash-flood
activity (mainly due to poor vegetation cover) during the 4.2 ka BP event.
Such extreme hydrological events are documented in fluvial stratigraphy from
northern Africa (both in Morocco and Tunisia), especially during the period
4100–3700 BP (Faust et al., 2004; Benito et al., 2015). These hydrological
events have also been identified in central Tunisia, a desert margin zone
characterized by a transition from the subhumid Mediterranean to arid
Saharan climate. Increased flood activity in river systems also occurred
locally during the period 4100–3700 BP (Zielhofer and Faust, 2008). In the
central Medjerda basin (northern Tunisia), enhanced fluvial dynamics started
earlier, at ∼4700 BP, and lasted until ∼3700 BP
(Faust et al., 2004).
Further east in Libya, the most dramatic environmental change in the area
related to the onset of dry conditions took place earlier, at
∼5000 years BP in Tadrart Acacus (Libyan Sahara; Cremaschi
and Di Lernia, 1999). In the Jefara Plain, northwestern Libya, the “late
Holocene arid climate period” started after 4860–4620 BP (Giraudi et al.,
2013). These two distant Libyan areas are both dominated by Saharan climate,
even though the Mediterranean is only 100 km from the Jefara Plain. This is
consistent with data from Giraudi et al. (2013), indicating that the Saharan
climate extends to the coast of the Mediterranean Sea in Libya. Focusing on
the Saharan climate and the African monsoon, a general deterioration of the
terrestrial ecosystem is indicated at Lake Yoa, northern Chad, during the
period ∼4800–4300 BP. Since 4300 BP, widespread dust
mobilization and the rapid transition (4200–3900 BP) from a freshwater
habitat to a salt lake are both recorded (Kröpelin et al., 2008).
In Egypt, the last “southern step” before the Levant, no major changes
have been recorded at Lake Qarun (the deepest part of the Faiyum Depression;
Baioumy et al., 2010), including the desiccation of Nile-fed Lake Faiyum
occurring at ∼4200 BP according to Hassan (1997). A recent study showed
that Lake Qarun was low during the 4.2 ka BP event and that its level
continued to fall until 3200 BP, in accordance with the conclusions of
Hassan (1997). The lake was finally cut off from the Nile, with only rare
inflows suggested by clayey silt depositions (Marks et al., 2018). The level
of Lake Moeris (Faiyum Depression) dropped at ∼4400 BP and
rose again at ∼4000 BP (Hassan, 1986). During the 4.2 ka BP
event, Nile base-flow conditions changed considerably with reduced inputs
from the White Nile, a dominant contribution from the Blue Nile, and
diminished precipitation (Stanley et al., 2003; Véron et al., 2013). The
source of the Blue Nile, Lake Tana (Fig. 3), also manifests a drier phase,
leading to a reduction in Nile flow during the same period (Marshall et al.,
2011), in phase with other regional paleoclimate archives (Chalié and
Gasse, 2002; Thompson et al., 2002). This drop in and/or failure of Nile
floods was recorded by a decreased Nile sediment supply (Fig. 3; Marriner et
al., 2012), while in the Burullus Lagoon (Nile Delta), reduced flow directly
impacted marshland vegetation (Bernhardt et al., 2012). The Nile Delta
region is not directly affected by monsoonal rainfall (this was also the
case during the Holocene and at longer Pleistocene timescales;
Rossignol-Strick, 1983; Arz et al., 2003; Felis et al., 2004; Grant et al.,
2016). However, the Nile's hydrological regime is essentially mediated by
river discharge upstream, i.e., by the East African monsoon regime, and only
secondarily by in situ Mediterranean climatic conditions (Flaux et al., 2013;
Macklin et al., 2015). In the northern Red Sea, located between the
Mediterranean and African–SW Asian monsoonal rainfall regimes, the 4.2 ka BP
event has been identified by enhanced evaporation and increased salinity in the
Shaban Deep basin (Fig. 3; Arz et al., 2006).
Paleoclimate series (z score transformed), with the type of climate proxy noted.
The orange vertical band represents the 4.2 ka BP event. From top to bottom: Sofular Cave
(Turkey; Göktürk et al., 2011), Neor Lake (Iran; Sharifi et al., 2015), Tell Tweini
(Syria;
Kaniewski et al., 2008), the Nile (Egypt; Marriner et al., 2012), Lake Tana (Marshall et al., 2011),
and the Shaban Deep (Red Sea; Arz et al., 2006).
All of this evidence from the southern Mediterranean and northern Africa points
to hydrological instability, both during and around the 4.2 ka BP event, due
to multiple climate influences, mainly from Saharan Africa. In many North
African cases, records show that climate changes at ∼4200 BP
are not characterized by abrupt events, but rather are part of either a
long-term trend or multicentennial-scale variations, as suggested by Arz et al. (2006) for the Red Sea. Focusing on Nile flow, variations seem mainly to
result from a shift in the dynamics of the ITCZ, which migrates
latitudinally in response to both orbitally controlled climatic patterns
(see Gasse, 2000; Ducassou et al., 2008; Kröpelin et al., 2008;
Verschuren et al., 2009; Revel et al., 2010; Flaux et al., 2013; Marriner et
al., 2013) and from changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO;
see Moy et al., 2002; Leduc et al., 2009; Wolff et al., 2011), an important
driver of decadal variations in precipitation over large parts of Africa
(Indeje et al., 2000; Nicholson and Selato, 2000). The period encompassing
the 4.2 ka BP event is consistent with a decrease in ENSO-like frequency
and a southern shift in the mean summer position of the ITCZ (Mayewski et
al., 2004; Marshall et al., 2011) that may have reduced the interactions
between ENSO-like frequency and the Ethiopian monsoon (Moy et al., 2002;
Marriner et al., 2012).
The 4.2 ka BP event in the northern Levant
Environmental data from the northern Levant derive from several locations in
Syria and Lebanon, spatially distributed from the coastal strip to the dry
inland areas.
Syria
The northern coastal lowlands of Syria, where Tell Tweini (Fig. 3) and Tell
Sukas are located, are separated from the Ghab Depression to the east by the
Jabal an Nuşayriyah, a 140 km long north–south mountain range 40 to
50 km wide with peaks culminating at ∼1200 m above sea
level. At Tell Tweini (Jableh), the pollen-based environmental
reconstruction (TW-1 core) shows that drier conditions prevailed during the
4.2 ka BP event with weaker annual inputs of freshwater and ecological
shifts induced by lower winter precipitation. The drier conditions ended at
∼3950 BP (Fig. 3; Kaniewski et al., 2008). At Tell Sukas,
∼10 km south of Tell Tweini, an increase in dryness during
the 4.2 ka BP event only coincides with a decline in olive exploitation,
implying milder conditions (Sorrel et al., 2016). Olive abundances remain
fairly high at Tell Tweini during the event, although the Olea pollen type
originated from the wild variety (oleasters; Kaniewski et al., 2009), a tree
species extremely resistant to drought that can survive in arid habitats (Lo
Gullo and Salleo, 1988) and that cannot unequivocally be used as a proxy
for “olive exploitation” (Kaniewski et al., 2009). In the Ghab Valley
(e.g., van Zeist and Woldring, 1980; Yasuda et al., 2000), no reliable
conclusions on climate shifts can be reported due to a floating chronology
(e.g., Meadows, 2005). In continental Syria at Qameshli (near the
Turkish–Iraqi border), modeled precipitation estimates (not based on
paleoclimate proxy data) evoke a potential regional crisis in the rainfall
regime beginning at around 4200 BP (Bryson and Bryson, 1997; Fiorentino et
al., 2008), echoing Lake Neor (flank of the Talesh–Alborz Mountains, Iran),
where a major dust event resulting from drier conditions is clearly
depicted (Fig. 3; Sharifi et al., 2015). The Qameshli climate model was used
to calculate a potential decline in precipitation at Tell Breda (near Ebla)
and Ras El-Ain. The two sites show similar trends to Qameshli, with a major
dry event at 4200 BP (Fiorentino et al., 2008). These “time series”
(Bryson and Bryson, 1997; Fiorentino et al., 2008) are somewhat questionable
as they derive solely from the macrophysical climate model developed by
Bryson (1992; corrected by Fiorentino et al., 2008). More datasets are
therefore needed to test the veracity of the Forientino et al. conclusions.
Taking into account the outcomes of these published models, the data from
Syria suggest that while the coastal area (Tell Sukas and Tell Tweini) was
less affected by aridity, drought was potentially widespread inland during
the 4.2 ka BP event from the south of Aleppo to the Turkish–Iraqi border.
Unfortunately, no paleoenvironmental data are available for Tell Leilan
despite its importance in narratives on the 4.2 ka BP event (e.g., Weiss et
al., 1993; Weiss, 2016, 2017).
Lebanon
In Lebanon, the main paleoclimatic data in support of the 4.2 ka BP event
derive from Jeita Cave (Fig. 4) and Al Jourd marsh (Fig. 4). Jeita Cave is
located on the western flank of central Mount Lebanon. While the JeG-stm-1
stalagmite record (δ18O and δ13C) does not show
compelling evidence for a rapid climate shift around 4200 BP (Verheyden et
al., 2008), new records (termed J1-J3; also based on δ18O and
δ13C) reveal that the 4.2 ka BP event is well defined, with a
pronounced phase of climate change from 4300 to 3950 BP (Fig. 4; Cheng et
al., 2015). According to Verheyden et al. (2008), due to the low time
resolution of this part of the JeG-stm-1 stalagmite (one sample every 180 years), the
short-lived 4.2 ka BP event may have been missed. Further north
at Sofular Cave (Turkey; Fig. 3), while the stalagmite So-1 is not affected
by this low temporal resolution, no consistent and convincing signature for
the 4.2 ka BP event was recorded (Göktürk et al., 2011), echoing the
JeG-stm-1 stalagmite record. The absence of a 4.2 ka BP signal at Sofular
Cave may result from the orography of the Black Sea and high
precipitation that does not reflect the surrounding Mediterranean
westerlies. The climate reconstruction from Al Jourd marsh, based on
environmental data from the Al Jourd reserve (∼70 km
northeast of Jeita Cave), shows the same trends as the J1-J3 cores (Cheddadi
and Khater, 2016). The reconstructed precipitation results display a drier
phase starting at ∼4220 BP and lasting until ∼3900 BP. At Ammiq (the Bekaa Valley), a strong decline in precipitation is
recorded from ∼4700 to ∼3850 BP, while at
Chamsine–Anjar (Bekaa Valley), the dry phase is centered on 4400 BP before a
gradual return to wet conditions that peak at ∼3930 BP
(Cheddadi and Khater, 2016). The chronological discrepancies arising from
Ammiq and Chamsine may potentially be the result of recalculated age models
somewhat different from the original studies (Hajar et al., 2008, 2010). The
age–depth models for the two records (Cheddadi and Khater, 2016) were
modified and adjusted according to the marine chronostratigraphy proposed by
Rossignol-Strick (1995).
Paleoclimate series (z score transformed), with the type of climate proxy noted.
The orange vertical band represents the 4.2 ka BP event. From top to bottom: Al Jourd
(Lebanon; Cheddadi and Khater, 2016), Jeita Cave (Lebanon; Cheng et al., 2015), Tel Dan
(Israel; Kaniewski et al., 2017), Tel Akko (Israel; Kaniewski et al., 2013), Soreq Cave
(Israel;
Bar-Matthews et al., 2003; Bar-Matthews and Ayalon, 2011), and the Dead Sea (Israel; Bookman
(Ken-Tor) et al., 2004; Migowski et al., 2006; Kagan et al., 2015).
Data from Lebanon suggest that a drier period centered on the 4.2 ka BP
event was recorded (Cheng et al., 2015; Cheddadi and Khater, 2016). Sites
in the Bekaa Valley (Ammiq, Chamsine) indicate that the drier phase started
earlier, between 4700 and 4400 BP, but these sequences are built upon
revised age models. The original interpretations suggest either an imprint
of the 4.2 ka BP event at ∼4000 BP (Hajar et al., 2008) or
strong human impacts on the environment (Hajar et al., 2010).
The 4.2 ka BP event in the central-southern Levant
In this section, the 4.2 ka BP event is presented from northern to southern
Israel.
Located in the foothills of Mount Hermon in the Galilee Panhandle at the
sources of the Jordan River, the site of Tel Dan (Israel) shows clear
signatures of an arid event. A pollen-based environmental reconstruction
depicts drier conditions characterized by a sharp drop in surface water
between ∼4100 and ∼3900 BP, with two main
inflections at ∼4050 and ∼3950 BP (Fig. 4;
Kaniewski et al., 2017). Approximately 10 km from Tel Dan, cores from the
Birkat Ram crater lake (northern Golan Heights; Schwab et al., 2004), also
located in the foothills of Mount Hermon, were used to reconstruct climate
trends during the last 6000 years (Neuman et al., 2007a). The authors
demonstrate that annual precipitation is comparatively uniform with no
distinctive fluctuations during the study period (Neuman et al., 2007a). The
pollen diagram from the Hula Nature Reserve (northwestern part of former
Lake Hula, Israel) shows an expansion in Olea before ∼4110 BP
(Baruch and Bottema, 1999; Van Zeist et al., 2009) but, because no
distinction can be made between the wild or cultivated variety, this would
suggest either (i) the expansion of olive orchards or (ii) drier conditions
that favored drought-resistant trees, especially during a period
characterized by decreasing cereals (see diagram in Van Zeist et al., 2009).
A pollen-based environmental reconstruction from the Sea of Galilee (Lake
Kinneret, Israel; e.g., Baruch, 1986; Miebach et al., 2017) shows two
decreases in the oak–pollen curve, interpreted as drier climate conditions
at 4300 and 3950 BP (Langgut et al., 2013), which may fit within the broader
framework of the 4.2 ka BP event. In the same core, a decrease in
tree-pollen scores was recorded around 4000 BP. According to the authors, it
is unclear whether this environmental signal is related to the 4.2 ka BP
event (Schiebel and Litt, 2018).
Along the coast at Tel Akko (Acre, Israel), a pollen-based climate
reconstruction shows negative precipitation anomalies centered on the period
∼4200–4000 BP, corresponding to an approximate 12 %
decrease in annual precipitation (Fig. 4; Kaniewski et al., 2013, 2014). At
Soreq Cave (Judaean Mountains, Israel), rainfall was ∼30 %
lower for the period 4200–4050 BP (Fig. 4; Bar-Matthews et al., 1997, 1999,
2003; Bar-Matthews and Ayalon, 2011). While it has been noted that oxygen
isotope ratios in speleothems cannot be used as a simple rainfall indicator
(Frumkin et al., 1999; Kolodny et al., 2005; Litt et al., 2012), a similar
value was suggested for the eastern Mediterranean with a decrease in annual
precipitation of ∼30 % (Fig. 2; Kaniewski et al., 2013).
Focusing on the Dead Sea (Israel, Jordan, and the West Bank), a lake-level
reconstruction points to two sea-level drops at ∼4400 and
∼4100 BP, separated by a short rise at ∼4200–4150 BP (Fig. 4; e.g., Bookman (Ken-Tor) et al., 2004; Migowski et al.,
2006; Kagan et al., 2015). A similar short wet phase is recorded at Tel Akko
at ∼4100 BP (Kaniewski et al., 2013) and ∼4000 BP at Tel Dan (Kaniewski et al., 2017),
suggesting that minor chronological
discrepancies can result from radiocarbon dating. The pollen-based
environmental reconstruction from Ze'elim Gully (Dead Sea) echoes the Dead
Sea level scores and suggests that drier climate conditions prevailed at
∼4300 BP and ∼3950 BP, engendering an
expansion of olive horticulture during the period ∼4150–3950 BP, which implies milder conditions (Neuman et al., 2007a; Langgut et al.,
2014, 2016). Pollen data from a core drilled on the Ein Gedi shore (Dead
Sea) were also used to reconstruct temporal variations in rainfall (Litt
et al., 2012). While the 4.2 ka BP event corresponds to a relatively wet and
cool period, two slightly drier phases were also recorded at ∼4400–4300 BP and ∼3900 BP (Litt et al., 2012). Even if some
issues persist, the chronology of the Dead Sea (Ze'elim and Ein Feshkha
sections) was strongly improved by Kagan et al. (2010, 2011), who produced
Bayesian age–depth deposition models using the OxCal P-sequence model. The
refined chronology of the Ze'elim Gully sequence and the Dead Sea are
described in detail in Kagan et al. (2015).
The core DS 7-1 SC (Dead Sea; Heim et al., 1997), the core from Ein Feshkha
(Dead Sea; Neuman et al., 2007b), and the marine cores off the Israeli coast
(Schilman et al., 2001) were not included in our analysis because they do
not cover the period under consideration.
Data from the southern Levant are complex compared to those from the
northern Mediterranean. While the sites suggest that drier conditions were
recorded during the 4.2 ka BP event from the Mediterranean coast to the Dead
Sea, they nonetheless show that drought must be integrated into a broader
chronological framework disrupted by a short wetter period. This W-shaped
event is attested at several sites, suggesting that the W shape is not
“noise” but a regional phenomenon spanning the central-southern Levant. A
W-shaped event is clearly highlighted in the Dead Sea records (Litt et al.,
2012; Langgut et al., 2014, 2016; Kagan et al., 2015; see Fig. 4) as well as
at Soreq Cave (δ18O, Fig. 4; Bar-Matthews et al., 2003;
Bar-Matthews and Ayalon, 2011) and is more or less attested in the Sea of
Galilee (Langgut et al., 2013; Schiebel and Litt, 2018), at Tel Dan, and Tel
Akko (Kaniewski et al., 2013, 2017). This W-shaped event may be a local
expression of the North Atlantic Bond event 3 (Bond et al., 1997) because it
has already been demonstrated that drier–wetter phases in the eastern
Mediterranean were associated with cooling–warming periods in the North
Atlantic during the past 55 kyr (Bartov et al., 2003).
Climatic hypotheses to explain the 4.2 ka BP event in the LevantNorth Atlantic
Kushnir and Stein (2010) have clearly noted that variability in southern
Levant precipitation is closely linked with a seesaw pressure gradient
between the eastern North Atlantic and Eurasia. Furthermore, they also evoke
the apparent link between Atlantic multidecadal variability (Atlantic
multidecadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability) and atmospheric
circulation (see Kushnir, 1994; Ziv et al. 2006; Kushnir and Stein, 2010).
Slowly paced Holocene variability is generally modulated by a colder than
normal North Atlantic, resulting in higher than normal precipitation in the
central Levant, while a warmer than normal North Atlantic leads to lower
precipitation. This suggests that (i) the North Atlantic is a key pacemaker
in driving the long-term hydroclimatic variability of the Levant during the
Holocene, and (ii) there is a nonlinear response to global climatic events,
such as the 4.2 ka BP event, consistent with pronounced cooling in eastern
Mediterranean winter SSTs and cold events in northern latitudes (Kushnir and
Stein, 2010). It appears that sudden Northern Hemisphere cold episodes
contrast with milder and more slowly paced Holocene variability.
A climate “seesaw” model
A bipolar southeast–southwest “climate seesaw” in the Mediterranean is
one of the climatic modes that explains the spatiotemporal variability of
precipitation over the basin during the winter (Kutiel et al., 1996; Xoplaki
et al., 2004), in connection with a positive or negative NAO. The dipole
precipitation pattern results from both local cyclogenesis and southward
shifts of storm tracks from western Europe towards the Mediterranean (and
vice versa). Drier conditions in the eastern Mediterranean mainly derive
from high-pressure systems over Greenland and Iceland and relatively low
pressure over southwestern Europe (Roberts et al., 2012), pointing to a
weakening of the zonal atmospheric circulation over Europe (Guiot and
Kaniewski, 2015). According to Xoplaki et al. (2004), the outcomes of such a
pattern over most of the Mediterranean region result in above normal
precipitation, with peak values on the western seaboard and lower values in
the southeastern part of the basin. This scheme fits with the Brayshaw et al. (2011) model that displays wetter conditions over large parts of the
Mediterranean basin, while the eastern Mediterranean was drier. These
conclusions are supported by Guiot and Kaniewski (2015). According to
Roberts et al. (2012), this mode also prevailed during the Little Ice Age,
with drier conditions over the eastern Mediterranean and wetter patterns
over the western Mediterranean (with an opposite scheme during the Medieval
Climate Anomaly).
Cyprus lows
While a dominant NAO forcing may explain western Mediterranean aridity, the
eastern Mediterranean appears to be mostly mediated by other climatic modes.
In particular, precipitation variability has not been uniform due to shifts
in cyclone migration tracks (northern–southern). Rainfall in the Levant
mostly originates from midlatitude cyclones (Cyprus lows) during their
eastward passage over the eastern Mediterranean (Enzel et al., 2003; Zangvil
et al., 2003; Saaroni et al., 2010). During wet years, more intense cyclones
frequently migrate over the eastern Mediterranean (and vice versa),
reflecting variations in the long-term mean low pressure, with positive
pressure anomalies consistent with reduced cyclonic activity near the
surface. Under this scenario, the most probable cause for drought events in
the Levant is the fact that the 500 hPa (upper-level anomalies) and sea-level
pressure patterns were not conducive to cyclone migration over the eastern
Mediterranean. Instead, their tracks were probably further to the north,
potentially impacting western Turkey and Greece (Enzel et al., 2003).
Conclusions
At the scale of the Levant, a climate shift is clearly documented by
sediment records during the chronological frame of the 4.2 ka BP event.
Nonetheless, some locations show that other regional and/or local forcing agents
may be involved, yielding different outcomes that must be more closely
addressed in the future. Concerning the climate mechanism driving the 4.2 ka BP event, we can assume that, despite the clear geographical dimensions of
the 4.2 ka BP event (Zanchetta et al., 2016; Di Rita et al., 2018), the
patterns responsible for the event are not yet fully understood. This also
raises a key question: how did societies adapt to this ∼300-year (or longer) drought? This knowledge gap is still widely debated and
must be addressed using high-resolution local records in proximity to
archeological sites to fully understand the resilience and adaptive
strategies of the Levant's diverse peoples and polities.
Data from this paper are available upon request to the corresponding author.
The supplement related to this article is available online at: https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1529-2018-supplement.
DK, NM, RC, JG, and EVC conceived the review and wrote the paper.
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
This article is part of the special issue “The 4.2 ka BP climatic event”. It is a result of “The 4.2 ka BP Event:
An International Workshop”, Pisa, Italy, 10–12 January 2018.
Acknowledgements
Support was provided by the Institut Universitaire de France CLIMSORIENT
program. This work is a contribution to Labex OT-Med (no.
ANR-11-LABX-0061) and has received funding from the Excellence Initiative of
Aix-Marseille University – A*MIDEX, a French “Investissements d'Avenir”
project.
Edited by: Giovanni Zanchetta
Reviewed by: two anonymous referees
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